Although it has entered spring and is facing the sunshine of the Year of the Dragon, if you are an A-share investor, you will inevitably feel a little warm and cold.
Many people enter 2024 with hope, but the first week found that the world was not calm, and the first month found that A-shares were still wilting. The market does not care about the expected eyes, and continues to stumble along the characteristics and inertia of 2023.
It's disappointing, of course, but even so, there doesn't seem to be a reason to be too harsh on the A** field – after all, it's just a barometer. For example, if you are about to go out for a morning exercise and find that the temperature count is abnormally low, will you just blame it? Or would it be better to warm up for a tougher challenge?
In the past year, affected by many internal and external factors, some enterprises are facing operating pressure, and some shareholders are not having a good time. This "barometer" reminds us that only by looking directly at difficulties and treating both the symptoms and the root causes can we usher in new hope.
If you are an investor in A-shares or **, facing a market that has been falling for more than two consecutive years, now you have come to the point of choice. Is it to hold, add to the position or retreat? Is it to beat your chest and feet, look up to the sky and sigh, or be a strong and regretless self?
Hold on, the market value may continue to shrink; If you increase your position, you may suffer more losses; And retreating will inevitably be painful.
Today, the only choice is to believe in the future. I believe in both the changes in the future and my future self.
Although from many perspectives, we are all going through some kind of difficult times, such as geopolitical conflicts, industry changes, and companies moving forward with heavy burdens. However, there are many bright spots, such as measures to promote economic stability, technological innovation leading the transformation of the industrial system, the global AI wave to wake up our minds, and many consumption sprouts.
I believe that there is always beauty and ugliness in the world, that there is always upward momentum in society, and that the streams of recovery will always merge into surging rivers.
What you should also believe in is your future self. Whether you're good at fundamental analysis or you're good at technicals, there's always something new in the new year. Even if the major indices will be ** in 2023, the ChatGPT concept at the beginning of the year and the Huawei mobile phone industry chain concept at the end of the year will ignite the A-share related sectors almost instantly. Last year's local market turmoil, is not limited to these?
Even if the A-share bull is short and the bear is long, after a few years of silence, the market will always brew new opportunities. Looking at the trajectory of the Shanghai Composite Index over the past 30 years, there has never been a record of three consecutive years of decline. If you can find and seize some opportunities in the a** field in 2023, what reason is there not to believe in the future and not believe in yourself?
There is no ** never looking back, and there is no adjustment that never ends. According to the statistics of many brokerages, at present, the SSE 50 static PE is about 9 times, and the value has fluctuated between 8 and 15 times in the past 12 years.
Of course, whether this hope can become a reality depends on factors such as the overall recovery process of the economy, the direction and intensity of policy increases, the pace and pace of structural transformation, and the upward ability of corporate profits.
Investing is a very complex thing, sometimes you need to be discerning and move, and sometimes you need to be confused and wise. If you want to see the rainbow through the wind and rain, you need strong faith, full patience and long-term determination.
Investment is a special journey of experience, no matter who tells you that no matter how profound technical analysis, no matter how many policy factors, no matter how complex the fundamental situation, only when you yourself have been tempered, can you see the general trend, understand the truth, and make the right choice.
In the face of today's A** field, whether you move forward bravely or choose the opportunity to fight again, it is worthy of understanding and respect.
One day, these are all moments of history in retrospect, the price paid in growth, and the steps we look at the dawn.
In any case, time will always push the moment of removing the old and welcoming the new in front of us. When it comes to investing, no matter what choice you make, it will stand the test of time. I hope that by then, you will be able to proudly say that I made a strong and unregrettable choice, and my future will be better.
Happy Chinese New Year!
Editorial Department of Investor.com.
February 2024.