After Marcos Jr. left Vietnam, Vietnam immediately communicated with China and revealed to him the intention of the Philippines and Vietnam in maritime cooperation.
Shortly after Marcos Jr. Jr. concluded his state visit to Vietnam, Nong Rong, assistant minister of China, also arrived in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, for talks with the Vietnamese deputy foreign minister. The talks covered a wide range of topics, mainly to implement a series of consensus reached during the Chinese leader's visit to Vietnam last year.
During the discussion on maritime issues, in addition to a frank exchange of views, China and Vietnam also emphasized the complexity of the current international and regional situation, as well as the common desire of China and Vietnam to attach importance to maintaining maritime peace and stability.
While the consultation was multifaceted, it was already an important outcome for Marcos Jr.'s diplomatic efforts in Vietnam. The Philippines' interaction with Vietnam may also send some message to China.
During his visit to Vietnam, Marcos Jr. made it clear that strengthening maritime cooperation with Vietnam was the top topic of his visit.
As a result, the Philippines and Vietnam have achieved fruitful diplomatic results in maritime cooperation. The two sides signed two memorandums of understanding, one on the prevention of emergencies in the South China Sea and the other on cooperation with the coast guard. In addition, the two sides agreed to reinstate the Joint Commission for Maritime Cooperation at the vice-ministerial level.
At the same time, the Philippines expressed its willingness to discuss with Viet Nam whether to jointly submit a proposal for the expansion of the continental shelf to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. Previously, Vietnam and Malaysia had submitted a joint submission.
Marcos Jr. had previously planned to take a different approach to negotiations on a code of conduct in the South China Sea, prioritizing cooperation with Vietnam and Malaysia.
Before leaving Vietnam, Marcos Jr. made it clear that the Philippines was almost done with a separate "code of conduct in the South China Sea." He pointed out that Vietnam is not only a direct party to the South China Sea dispute, but also the only strategic partner of the Philippines in Southeast Asia, so maritime cooperation is the cornerstone of the relationship between the two countries.
However, Vietnam does not share this view and does not want to be perceived by China as aligned with the Philippines on the South China Sea issue. Although Vietnam is one of the parties to the South China Sea dispute, it is also the closest bystander to the maritime dispute between China and the Philippines. As a result, Vietnam is well aware that in the eyes of China, the Philippines has become a potential "troublemaker".
Therefore, the major challenge for Vietnam is how to satisfy its own interests without being drawn into the dispute between the Philippines and China, which could affect Sino-Vietnamese relations. Therefore, immediately after the departure of Marcos Jr., Vietnam made contact with China. This is widely seen as a clear signal that Vietnam will not follow the Philippines in seeking a so-called "paradigm shift" in the South China Sea.
During Marcos Jr.'s visit, although he repeatedly steered the topic to the South China Sea issue and the maritime dispute between China and the Philippines in an attempt to gain Vietnam's support, the Vietnamese side resolutely refused to join the topic and simply reported on the progress of bilateral relations.
Regarding the maritime cooperation between the Philippines and Vietnam, the report is relatively vague, and it is clear that it is deliberately trying to downplay its impact.
In fact, Vietnam and the Philippines have completely different policy approaches in the South China Sea, which has led to a lack of common language between the two sides.
Since Marcos Jr. took office, the Philippines no longer plans to consult with China on the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea" with other South China Sea parties under the ASEAN framework, but has chosen to rely on the U.S.-Philippines defense relationship and take a combination of diplomacy and deterrence.
Thus, in the near term, Marcos Jr. is not only actively forming alliances in Southeast Asia and planning to promote the development of an independent "code of conduct" within ASEAN, but also seeking other U.S. support in the South China Sea, and therefore seeking cooperation with Vietnam.
In contrast, Vietnam remains cautious, emphasizing the need to properly implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and develop an "effective and substantive code of conduct in the South China Sea." This shows that Vietnam knows better than the Philippines the serious consequences of unilaterally ruling out China in the South China Sea.
In recent years, Vietnam has taken a more low-key stance on the South China Sea, emphasizing that maritime disputes are not the whole story of bilateral relations. Especially after the Chinese leader's state visit to Vietnam last year, Vietnam's top priority at present is to further deepen and strengthen the China-Vietnam comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership.
In contrast, Marcos Jr.'s emphasis on Philippine-Vietnamese maritime cooperation is less important.
In addition, despite Marcos Jr.'s tough stance on the South China Sea, it is important to consider that the Philippines makes major adjustments to its foreign policy after each election.
In addition, the Philippines is currently experiencing unprecedented political turmoil, and the alliance between the two Marcos and Duterte families may be divided or even opposed, so Vietnam needs to wait and see whether the Philippines' South China Sea policy will be affected.
In short, Vietnam and the Philippines have very different approaches to the South China Sea. The Philippines is capricious, with frequent contacts with countries outside the South China Sea, showing marked opportunism and military adventurism, while Vietnam is more risk-averse and focused on developing relations with China.
Therefore, it can be said that the Philippines and Vietnam lack not only a common position but also a lack of continuity in maritime cooperation, let alone the basis for building a bilateral relationship, which is just wishful thinking on the part of Marcos Jr.
Project Sword