When I walked into the waiting hall with my suitcase tiredly, the dense crowd seemed to be full of abacus beads, and the crowded situation and boiling noise directly lifted my spiritsThere is still about a month before the Chinese New Year, why are so many people at the train station?
The sore arm carrying the things, I still can't help but think that there are so many people returning home at this moment, even to the point of exaggerationIt seems that Jack Ma's previous prophecy still has content
After looking for several laps along the waiting hall, there are no vacant seats, many people sit on their luggage, chatting with the people around them, or staring blankly at the ground, their eyes are not waves, just sit quietly, in front of them are uncles and aunts who are lining up early with large bags and small bags, I look at such a sceneI can't help but recall Jack Ma's prophecy
The first group of people is low-skilled workers who do not have a competitive advantage, and now they are moving towards the era of intelligence, and the low-skilled workers in the future of mechanized repetitive cities will be at great riskIf they don't keep up with the pace in time, what awaits them is likely to be eliminated by companies that keep up with the wave of intelligence, because these people are no longer needed.
I also want to say that if some enterprises do not transform and upgrade in time to improve their innovation capabilities and competitiveness, they will also face the crisis of bankruptcy.
Either the first case or the second case will bring to the marketJobs have shrunk dramaticallyIn other words, the jobs available in the cities cannot accommodate as many people, and the result is that many people have to migrate to the countryside to seek opportunities and development in the countryside.
Many of you should feel the power of artificial intelligenceFor example, ChatGPT。Since the release of ChatGPT on November 30, 22, it has exploded across the country like a tornado in a short period of time.
The GPT-4 that appeared later is even more impressive, although Google and many domestic and foreign manufacturers are struggling to catch up, but there is still a significant gapAt the same time, the craze for AIGC discussions has once again reached an unprecedented height and has lasted for a long time.
Along with it, there are frequent news on the Internet that a company has laid off how many original artists, the front-end programmer is dead, and the ERP company optimizes the number of employees.
Every time I see this, I feel very nervous, what will my future hold? Everything is changing faster and fasterSelf-improvement through recharging？But what if the newly charged electricity is quickly crushed by artificial intelligence?
Scientific and technological innovation is getting faster and faster, and the development of science and technology is changing with each passing dayWe can't sit still
I remember a previous university teacher who encouraged his students to use ChatGPT when it first came out, and his point was:The advent and application of AI is unstoppable, and civilization's pursuit of further development is bound to be more efficient and innovative to eliminate the inefficient old
So if we can't stop it, we should do itOpen your armsLet yourself harness it and use it for yourself in order to help the individual develop better.
And man is a very complex creature in the world, and human nature is elusiveNo matter how advanced artificial intelligence is, it will be as naïve as a baby in front of human nature.
I remember a friend who was a salesman told me her story, she said that customers are difficult to follow, it is very difficult to win, she has read a variety of sales-related books, and she is also enthusiastic and positive when treating customers, and the first few follow-ups are generally very smoothBut often it's the last step, and it doesn't work out.
Some customers shirk in every possible way and disappear directly; Or set her up and try her best to benefit herself; What's more, he got to the bottom of her, and after mastering a lot of information, he perfunctorily drove her away;
Some talked for hours about thinking about it, and then there was no more follow-up; There are also customer contracts that are signed, and then the money is not paid, and they turn around and cooperate with other companies.
I could feel her despair, anger and helplessness, because human nature is complex and there are so many different people in the worldAlthough those sales books teach all kinds of tricks, do they apply to everyone? Should it be said that there is such a gold-finger general move?
Everyone should know the answerSo in practice, it is very important to be flexible according to different situations, timings and objects.
I saw an example beforeMany telemarketing companies use telemarketing robots to call customersBut after all, it is not mature enough, many times it is difficult to figure out the real needs of customers, and even understand the meaning of a certain sentence of the wrong customer, the customer experience is very poor, and it is not realistic to use robots to develop customers at this stage.
The process of developing customers, facilitating customers, and finally signing contracts is very deep, and it is not so simple, and artificial intelligence has not been able to reach the level of figuring out customers and dealing with such complex situations for a long time.
The second type of people are those who are engaged in infrastructure work, like those in developed countries in the WestOur country will also develop from the era of infrastructure investment to the direction of private domain investment and private consumption, so there will be fewer and fewer personnel in the field of infrastructure construction
If the relevant practitioners are squeezed out and the transformation is not successful in time, it will be difficult to develop in the cityFierce competition, high housing prices, and the impact of intelligent technology, will have a huge impact, making it difficult for relevant practitioners to gain a foothold in the city, and the rural areas have huge market space and opportunities, which will become the choice for people to escape from the already crowded cities.
Moreover, this is a period of economic downturn**In order to stimulate the economy and help people through this difficult period, it is necessary to reduce the action on infrastructure. One might ask, what is the relationship between getting through a difficult economic period and reducing infrastructure? Listen to me slowly.
First of all, you should know that the market and the market are binary, and they do not bring economic growth and income creation by themselvesIts income mainly comes from two aspects, taxation and the issuance of government bondsIn other words, the income of ** comes from enterprises and the public.
If we invest heavily in infrastructure, it means that we will take more money from businesses and the public, and then companies and the public will have less money to invest and consume.
And we know that in the economic downturn, we need to stimulate consumption and investment to promote a healthy economic recovery, so in such a difficult period, we will not vigorously engage in infrastructure, but will do less.
A combination of the above two situationswill lead to the marginalization of infrastructure investmentThe situation of relevant practitioners can be imagined, and the high housing prices are also an important factor in making them turn to the countryside.
Someone asked if the house price should not be so scary, and how good it would be to come down. In fact, I also hope that the housing price can be reasonable, but the reality is a complex chaotic system, not as simple as we think, in the current situationThe drop in housing prices is more harmful to us ordinary people
First, if house prices fall, many developers who invest in real estate will think that the value of their investment will shrink significantly in the future, and they will withdraw their capital from the real estate market and move to other markets with better prospects.
This means that the real estate industry's demand for ** land will drop sharply, so the land transfer fee will be paid much less than before, however, the land transfer fee is one of the most important **income**
Others such as property tax, deed tax and other real estate-related will also be reduced, so inevitably, the slump in the real estate market will lead to a decline in income.
The real estate businesses that stay behind are also not having a good time, because the drop in house prices will make people postpone their purchases because people are expecting a further declineThis will make it more difficult to sell real estate, reduce the number of transactions, and many houses cannot be sold, so that the real estate companies that continue to stay behind will postpone the launch of new real estate projects.
Whether companies are withdrawing in anticipation of a bad future, or staying but delaying new projects, it can lead to a sharp loss of jobs in the sector, and affected upstream and downstream related enterprises, and with it, we will see a large number of layoffs in the market.
Therefore, if the real estate ** is lowered, it is really not a wise choice in the current economic difficultiesLet's look forward to the day when it will pick up
The third type of people is the small and medium-sized enterprise entrepreneurs who are at the intersection of transformation, and now the slogan of transformation and upgrading is very loud, but how many enterprises have really done it? How many companies are determined to do so?
Who wants to settle down to do this when opportunism can bring huge profits? Then such an enterprise may be able to make quick money for a while, but it is difficult to become a century-old enterpriseWhen they need to transform, they do not transform, and the only thing that awaits them is elimination and closure.
Relevant data show that no more than 5% of people survive within 5 years of starting a businessEntrepreneurship is really not a simple story
If the companies that have been left behind by the times and have closed down, it will be difficult for them to make a comeback if they do not have start-up capital and competitive technology, and many of them will return to the countrysideBecause there is still a gap between there and the city, it means that there are many opportunities and challenges.
Some economists believe that the future enterprises will either be large and wide, or small and fine, the former has huge resources, and the latter has the core technology to survive
Enterprises have their own core competitiveness is a matter of survival, if the scale can not develop, then hug the thighs of large enterprises, specifically to provide them with an advantageous service, do fine and specialized, is also a good way.
For example, some companies specialize in straws, which have reached the ceiling of this line and are sold to major enterprises, with a profit of a few cents each, but they can also earn hundreds of millions in a year;
Some companies rely on large enterprises to provide them with professional and excellent background check services, and they are also surviving very well.
Ma Yun is a leader in the early part of the era, with vision and insight far beyond us, and many of his predictions are not groundless, but still worth learning and thinking about.
The impact of the iterative progress of artificial intelligence, the transformation of the situation brought about by the development of the times, and the urgency of enterprise transformation are all happening, and they are closely related to each of us
I can't say anything about the smallness, but there is one sentence that is worth affirmingWhen the situation is bad, learn more and develop our own system, rather than sitting still, this will give us more cards to resist difficulties