Next Monday (2On the 19th), A-shares ushered in the first trading day of the Year of the Dragon, or there may be a sharp rise in "red envelopes".
Because, the periphery and the big A itself are currently at a wonderful point of resonance.
Externally, during the Spring Festival holiday, most of the world's major stock indexes**. For example, the 225 index next door has accumulated more than 4%, the A50 futures index has risen nearly 3%, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Technology Index have started "three consecutive yangs", and the Golden Dragon Index has risen more than 5%.
Big A itselfIn the last trading week before the holiday, the Shanghai Composite Index Weekly ** was strongly embedded in the 80% percentile of the penultimate trading week, and the GEM was a large amount of Changyang anti-package, superimposed on the history of February, with more ups and downs in February, and the medium-term pattern was improving.
On the day, the Shanghai Composite Index reversed its V-shaped reversal in three consecutive days, recovering the previous 6 days' losses in one fell swoop, while also quickly recovering 5 days, 10 days, 20 days and 30 days, and the 5 days** have turned around, and the short-term bulls have the advantage.
At the same time, the MACD is at 123rd and 2The 7-day constitutes a standard double bottom pattern with a visible divergence to the naked eye, i.e., a new low for the stock index, and the MACD indicator rejects the new low.
In other words, the 6 consecutive yin in early February was essentially a beautiful "short trap", and the short-term low of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has been proven.
On the 5-minute, 15-minute and 30-minute periods, the system is currently all bullish, with the lows gradually rising, the volume and price cooperating, and the upward trend is textbook-like. The 60-minute and 120-minute periods are trending upward, but the system arrangement is slightly messy, and the short-term upside is a bit too steep, and sideways consolidation is needed here.
The GEM day **4 consecutive yang, but the last trading day before the holiday rose and fell, and there was more obvious profit-taking pressure in the short term.
The feedback is at 30 minutes and 60 minutes**, and it is now out of the high-level box** pattern.
On the whole, Big A itself still has inertial upward appeal and friendly resonance of the external environment, and there is also a high opening of "red envelopes" to be expected.
But one thing must be noted, the short-term market is indeed too aggressive, the slope of the pull up is too steep, and the game opens the door to the capital has a profit to cash in the case, here the inertia after the upward rush or there is a "close the fist and then punch" type adjustment, and then ** gradually into a better situation, overall cautious bullish.
1. During the Spring Festival holiday, the cultural tourism consumption industry has become the biggest winner, and there may be short-term explosive trading opportunities after the relevant targets.
Because: (1) from February 10 to 17 (the first day of the first lunar month to the eighth day of the first lunar month, the Spring Festival holiday), the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society is expected to accumulate 231.1 billion passengers;
2) According to the 2024 Spring Festival travel report released by a pig and a certain trip, during the Spring Festival, the number of domestic travel bookings has greatly exceeded the same period in 2019, among which, medium and long-term travel has increased by more than 3 times compared with last year, and the average travel date of independent travel has increased by 30% compared with last year.
2. Artificial intelligence may usher in a new hype opportunity, big A likes to talk about the "temperament" and the superposition of many good news, artificial intelligence may continue to ferment after the holiday, and it is even expected to repeat the beginning of last year, specifically:
1) Sun Moumou, the founder of a bank group, is seeking up to $100 billion in funding to fund a chip joint venture to compete with Nvidia and ** semiconductors necessary for artificial intelligence;
2) The stock price of a leading AI company continued to rise sharply, and its market value surpassed that of Amazon, Google and other companies to rank among the top three in the United States;
3) OpenAI launched a new generative AI model "SORA", which made a shocking debut in 60 seconds of HD**.
3. YH launched a 105 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation and a 500 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation today, and the winning interest rate was 18% and 25%, both unchanged from before.
Today, 191 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 499 billion yuan of MLF expired, and the net withdrawal of 85 billion yuan on the same day.
Comprehensive analysis: Internal and external resonance + special time point atmosphere should be in place + historical data shows a high probability of a good start, and there is a high probability that A shares will rise sharply on Monday.
The article is a collation and reflection of traceable investment ideas, and does not constitute investment advice, for reference only).