The wheel of history is rolling forward, and the global economic development has undergone three transformations. So, what is the current state of China's economic transformation, and how will it develop in the future? Let's start with the conclusion: China is at a critical stage of the second economic transformation. How's that going?
First of all, the first economic transformation was real estate. With the exception of Europe, which industrialized through external plunder of the Great Voyage and skipped the real estate phase, the starting point of industrialization in other rising countries was closely linked to real estate. For example, the miracle of the Han River in South Korea, the Showa era in Japan, and the American dream in the United States have all gone through this process. This is because industrialization requires a lot of financial support, and latecomers are not competitive in the field of industrialization. In order to achieve primitive accumulation, the state needs to rely on its own population to incur huge debts, and real estate becomes the best carrier. With the rapid development of real estate and GDP, the country must carry out a second economic transformation to transfer the burden of real estate after the total amount of debt borne by ordinary people through housing purchase peaks.
At this time, the second economic transformation came into being. At the heart of this transformation is the bulk industrial commodities, especially the automotive industry. The automotive industry is a typical representative of bulk industrial commodities, which is why many companies are vying to enter the automotive market. The domestic market demand and capacity are large enough, while tens of thousands of parts are needed for automobile production, which will bring a huge scale of the upstream and downstream industrial chain and help complete the second economic transformation. However, as the automotive industry shifts from incremental to stock markets, such as Detroit, the former car city, a third economic transformation will be driven after overcapacity in automobiles.
As a result, the third economic transformation is quietly coming. The third economic transformation will focus on the tertiary sector. This is not limited to the service sector, but to all industries that are less dependent on natural resources and have a high debt-to-swap ratio. The Internet industrial revolution in the United States is a typical example of the third economic transformation. Japan and South Korea, on the other hand, have taken the lead in completing the second economic transformation, and have made three attempts at economic transformation, all of which have ended in failure. The main reason for this is their lack of autonomy, because the United States behind them does not allow it, and now they can only rely on the results of the second economic transformation to survive. Under the current international situation, the United States, Japan, and South Korea will certainly do their utmost to prevent China from moving towards the third economic transformation. It's an inevitable game. So, does China have what it takes to successfully complete the third economic transformation? This is worth pondering.