Hi is in control of the rebounding ball and is in control of destiny.
With the trade deadline approaching, the NBA trading market has come to an end for the time being. For this year's trade market, there is a complete thunder and rain, and there have been rumors of various big-name star trades, and even rumors that the Lakers have put James on the trade shelf. But on the day of the trade deadline, most teams still chose to continue to wait and see, and there were no major transactions that affected the top of the league, and many players who were previously involved in trade rumors, such as Detayzhang Murray, DeRozan, Bridges, Kuzma and other key players, and even Caruso, Tucker and other character puzzle pieces did not change teams in the end, showing signs of coldness.
In the last 48 hours of the trade deadline, the alliance had 16 deals, compared to 22 in the same period last year. Not only has the number of transactions decreased, but there was no superstar involved, compared to 2022, at least Harden and Simmons two core-level swaps, and 2023 is a transaction case for Durant and Westbrook, on the other hand, this year, there are no blockbuster transactions, if you have to talk about the star level, Barty Hield, who may be sent to Philadelphia, is already one of the biggest names among the transfer players at this year's trade deadline.
The reason for the deserted mid-quarter trading market is largely related to the new version of the collective bargaining agreement that came into effect last year. The relevant provisions of the new version of the collective bargaining agreement are mainly to restrict the league's super giants, and any team whose salary exceeds the red line of the local tycoon tax will basically be affected.
According to the rules, if a team's salary exceeds the first local tyrant tax red line, the team will not be able to use sign-to-trade players, cannot recruit players whose original salary exceeds the full middle class from the buyout market, and the total salary recovered in the transaction cannot exceed 110% of the chips given away, while the team limit that does not touch the local tyrant tax red line is 125%.
If the team's salary exceeds the second local tyrant tax red line, the mini-middle class regulations cannot be used in the future. And by the end of the season, the penalties for teams with the second red line will be stricter, such as prohibiting the use of trades to get back chips with higher salary totals, not being able to package multiple contracts to match salaries for trades, using cash as trade chips, or recruiting players with trade exceptions.
Therefore, after the implementation of a stricter punishment system, such as the Suns trading Beal, the Bucks grabbing Lillard, the Celtics taking Holiday before the season, and the Clippers trading for Harden and other star players at the beginning of this season will no longer exist, because the salaries of these teams have long exceeded the second local tyrant tax red line, and they cannot be used to package multiple medium-sized contracts to match the salary of the traded players. In order to avoid losing operational flexibility, each team will try to control the team salary within a certain range. The new collective bargaining agreement has had an impact since last offseason, with fewer buyers on the free agency market and a large number of free agents staying at less than the maximum salary.
And those teams that form giants, the follow-up operation is also limited everywhere, so each team must think twice before introducing stars, especially at present, most teams in the league have exceeded the salary ceiling, once the introduction of stars is not as expected, it is not easy to seek reinforcements, and the management will naturally not act rashly. Therefore, the next blockbuster transactions should not be too frequent, and if it can really promote superstar-based transactions, it will basically not exceed the following three situations:
Rebuilding the team: Jazz deal with Gobert, Mitchell
Active trades: Nets Harden, Irving, Durant's voluntary departure requests
Championship demand: The Bucks traded Holiday for Lillard
Secondly, the new collective bargaining agreement also adjusts the luxury tax, not only increasing the tax rate, but also increasing the penalties for repeat offenders. In today's environment, as long as you eat three contracts with the highest salary at the same time, you will cross the luxury tax red line, and it is difficult for the team owner to withstand a large series of penalties no matter how rich he is. This is also a direct cause of the decline in the trade value of dunk king Zach LaVine, whose contract value will total 13.8 billion, as long as the team that wins him will definitely break the second red line of local tyrant tax, so even if the introduction of him will help improve the team's combat effectiveness, the huge price will still make many teams stay away.
On the other hand, players who can achieve reinforcement goals without causing a serious burden have become popular trade targets, such as Murray, Brogdon, Bojan, DeRozan, Hield, Kuzma, Grant, and other would-be All-Stars who are not in the top salary level.
Also, there is another reason why the league has a trade cold situation, and that is that the strong teams do not have enough trade chips. Most teams in the league have been severely polarized this season, with nearly 70 percent of the available first-round picks concentrated in 11 teams as of January, and only four of them were playoff teams. In other words, most teams that want to strengthen have a hard time coming up with a favorable chip for their star bidders.
After realizing the difficulty of using a trade to win the first round, many teams have also begun to lower the trade requirements, such as the Pistons' trade policy is to accept even a second-round pick as long as they can get a draft pick. They got three second-round picks through Monte Morris, Burks and Bojan. There are also teams that are reluctant to bow their heads, such as the Jazz, and it was revealed that their offer for Clarkson was high enough that no one cared about it, and in the end, it only relied on Olynyk and Abaki to earn a first-round pick.
To sum up, compared to the previous full-game stud gamble, most teams have been relatively conservative in their operations this season, preferring to make minor repairs or reduce team salaries. For example, the Warriors chose to send Joseph to the Pacers, and the Bucks traded Lo Jr. to the Kings to throttle costs. There were also teams that took advantage of the opportunity, and the Celtics spent only three second-rounds to fill in the types of players that the team was lacking, including the highly mobile wing Springer and the highly mobile small-ball center Tillman.
The warrior lake that does not move
The Warriors and Lakers, two teams that have won championships in recent years, have had a lot of problems this season, with their records hovering on the brink of the play-offs. Halfway through the season, the two teams have tried no less than 15 starting lineups, but the results have not been satisfactory, and it is clear that the answer they are looking for is not within the team, and the last hope is to use a trade to achieve a roster change. However, after the trade deadline, both teams chose to stay the same, and although it was not too surprising, there were still some doubts after all.
In fact, the two teams are not completely without trade opportunities, especially the Warriors. Previously, the Knicks had asked about the possibility of trading Wiggins, and the Warriors also tried to negotiate Caruso with the Bulls and Bojan to the Pistons, but when the other party fired Kuminga, the Warriors could only say goodbye. But as we've said before, the Warriors don't have much pressure to trade, and the only expiring contract in the main core is Thompson, but his amount is difficult to match, and the selling price market is not good; Paul's salary next season is non-guaranteed, and the rest of Wiggins, Green, Looney and others, the Warriors still have a considerable period of control, as long as they don't mind whether they finally advance to the playoffs this season, the Warriors have no urgency to make up for it.
As for the Lakers, although James is rumored to be pressuring the Lakers' top management to actively operate in the trade market, he posted an emoji of Lady Liberty and a crown on his personal social account, wore a Knicks-patterned towel in a post-game interview, and also revealed that he considered moving to a New York team in 2010, all of which were seen as expressing dissatisfaction with the Lakers' poor current situation.
Despite this, Lakers management remained conservative and only sought injured Vincent and Wood, who had locker room problems, on trade deadline day. According to related news, the Lakers will not try to accept a third max-paid player unless he is a first-team player, but there is currently no player of similar level on the trade market, and the team only has one of the first-round picks available in 2029 or 2030 at this stage, and there is no bargaining chip to participate in trade negotiations.
It is also reported that the reason why the Lakers are looking for chips is to compete for core guards such as Mitchell, Irving or Trae Young this summer.
In addition to limited trade resources, the direct reason for the Lakers' indifference in the trade market may also be related to the uncertainty of James' future movements. Despite being a veteran, James' on-court value is still evident, and he is likely to choose to switch teams in the next year or two in order to fulfill his dream of playing alongside his son. If the Lakers run out of resources now, once James leaves, the Lakers' rebuilding will become quite difficult, and even if the management stud takes Murray, DeRozan and other players, the Lakers' championship probability this season is still a big enough unknown.
Perhaps management's inaction is not the best option, but the risk to the Lakers and Warriors may be greater after the deal, so choosing to wait and see may be the most suitable option for now.
Trade winners and losers
The biggest winner in this year's trade market is undoubtedly the Knicks, who only paid Fornier, Flynn and Arzitiakno, three players who were not on the rotation list, and Grimes, who had a locker room conflict, and two second-round picks, in exchange for two instant players Bojan and Burks, to achieve the purpose of enriching the team's wing depth. While the team still has injuries, when they return, the Knicks are outright one of the most competitive teams in the Eastern Conference.
The focus is on the fact that the Knicks didn't use their first-round pick at all, they still have a number of first-round picks available this summer to chase star players, and there are currently two spots available on the roster, the team's salary is below the tax line, and there is still room to recruit experienced veterans from the buyout market.
The other winner was the 76ers. Last year, it was once in disarray because of Harden's trade request, but after about half a season, the 76ers seem to be back in contention for the championship.
Judging by the results alone, the team's management has done well enough to maximize the value of their six second-round picks, add goalscorer Hield, deal with several highly fungible contracts such as Korkmaz, Morris, House and Springer, reduce the team's salary below the tax line, pay off three spots, and avoid the aftermath of the luxury tax on the team. And the 76ers also have a full middle class of nearly 12 million, and they are still competitive in the buyout market.
Since they didn't use the first round, the 76ers will have five first-round picks and a maximum salary space of nearly 60 million during this offseason, and they can recruit big-name stars on the free market, and they have a good chance of rebuilding the giant roster this summer.
After the winners, let's take a look at the losing side of the trade. At the top of the list is the Chicago Bulls, who have been rumored to trade for a few months before the team, but in the end, nothing has happened. The team's general manager said that the team still has hope of competing for the playoffs, so he decided to go with the status quo. But the problem is that the team's core LaVine is reimbursed for the season due to surgery, and Ball, who has been out for two years due to injury, is also undecided, and it is a problem to keep the playoff position just from the current roster of the Bulls.
Second, key players such as DeRozan, Drummond, and Pavey are about to become free agents and have not been able to have residual value by the trade deadline, and the Bulls are likely to lose money at the end of the season. Last year's Raptors were a case in point, when they failed to process VanVleet's contract in time to get him elsewhere on free agency and the team ended up empty-handed, and now the Bulls seem to be continuing the path the Raptors have taken.
Another trade loser came from the Mavericks, although the team traded for two young rotations, PJ Washington and Gafford and Gafford were sent away, but the likes of Gwee, Curry Jr. and Holmes were all high-quality rotations added in the offseason, indirectly announcing the team's complete failure during the offseason.
In addition, the team was running out of draft picks, and they also posted a first-round pick in each of the two trades, leaving the team with only two second-round picks and one or two first-round picks available this summer. The team's goal at this stage is to win the championship, and it is understandable that the management has chosen to choose the stud chips, but whether the lineup they have chosen to bet on is still a question of whether it has the strength to compete for the championship at this time.
After the trading deadline, the bidding drama of the buyout market
There are also a number of players who have been dealt with by teams at the trade deadline this season, such as Gallinari, House, Jr. Lowe, Joe Harris, Morris, etc., all of whom are eligible for immediate action, and these are all objects that other teams can try. Lowry, who was just traded to the Hornets by the Heat, also revealed earlier that he expects to reach a buyout agreement with the team, and once he breaks up with the team, the hometown team 76ers will try to contact him.
Another piece of the puzzle that could enter the buyout market is PJ Tucker, who has already been at odds with the Clippers and spoke out before the trade deadline that he wants to join a team with room to play, whether it's a trade or a buyout.
The veterans of the buyout market mentioned above, their first choice for the next home should be some of the favourites. However, it must be noted that limited by the new version of the collective bargaining agreement, the Warriors, Clippers, Celtics, Suns, Bucks, Nuggets, Heat and other teams whose salaries exceed the first red line of local tyrant tax are not allowed to recruit players whose original salaries exceed the full middle class quota from the buyout market, that is to say, the above seven teams have withdrawn from the buyout market in advance Dinwiddie, Harris, Lowry and other veterans of the battle.