Our GDP per capita is only 1$250,000 (less than $1 at the current exchange rate.)$20,000), this level is 1320,000 US dollars, which is far from the threshold of 20,000 US dollars in developed countries. As for the 2035 proposed to reach the "intermediate level of developed countries"3The $50,000 target is even closer. Therefore, we must be humble and cautious and continue to work hard! ——Professor Chang Xiuze.
Xia Jun: Economic success has become the core content, no matter what you say, if the masses feel more and more pressure, it will definitely not be able to support it for a long time. Therefore, the commitment to economic development goals is the most responsible commitment, because it is felt by every citizen every day.
Chang Xiuze: ** It has been clearly stated that by 2035, our development goal is to "reach a new level of per capita GDP" - a quantitative indicator - "to reach the level of a moderately developed country". Note that it is the level of a moderately developed country, so what is the level of a moderately developed country?
I have done preliminary research and formed a more vivid "four-story analysis" view, and I have set the goal of 2035 as the fourth floor, and we want to go up to the high level, which is the indicator of GDP per capita (not the disposable income per capita of residents).
According to international research, what is the standard for "reaching the level of a moderately developed country"? $3 to $40,000, an average of $3$50,000, this quantified 3$50,000 is the target set by ** for 2035. This is the fourth floor.
The third floor is the "threshold", that is, the threshold for entering developed countries: about $20,000 per capita.
Second floor: It's called "high-income country", which is somewhat different from developed countries. What does that mean? As you know, there is a famous term in economics called "overcoming the middle-income trap". What is the threshold for us to cross this "middle-income trap" to the other side? According to the World Bank's 2021 data, the standard is 1US$26.95 million, which is the standard for 2021 (see Chang Xiuze, "Theory of China's Economic Three-Type Trend", Journal of Shanghai University, No. 5, 2022), however, please note: the threshold for high-income countries is increasing year by year. The latest standard for 2022 is 1$320,000. So how much is China now?
Now we are on the ground floor. The national per capita GDP in the previous year was 1$250,000 (1. at the current exchange rate.)about $1.95 million), and this is what we are facing: first, there is no "crossing the middle-income trap", that is, there is no threshold for entering a "high-income country"; Second, there is no threshold for entering a "developed country"; Third, as for the distance from 2035 to the "level of moderately developed countries"3$50,000, far worse.
Xia Jun: We are now 1around $20,000, while in 2035 it will reach $3$50,000 means quadrupling and tripling in about 10 years, which sounds "stressful".
Chang Xiuze: In recent years, there have been debates in the academic and policy-making circles in China, and some think tanks in China have issued reports saying that "China has surpassed the United States in an all-round way", saying that surpassing the United States in an all-round way means that it has entered the ranks of "developed countries", which has had a great impact on society.
In March 2023, the U.S. Congress passed a bill with 425 votes to 0 that "China is not a developing country, but a high-income country, or even a developed country", which caused us a lot of passivity.
There is a famous saying: "Don't blow, the more you develop, the more humble you are." He explicitly instructed us: "Don't talk too much, don't do anything too much." However, in recent years, some people have deliberately exaggerated our national strength, dressed themselves up as a so-called "developed country", and even said that they "surpassed the United States in an all-round way." This time, the United States passed a bill to no longer recognize China as a developing country. As a result, the various treatments enjoyed by developing countries no longer exist, and we have to shoulder the responsibilities that developed countries should fulfill, which has brought great embarrassment, passivity, and harm to our country.
Xia Jun: This seems to be in response to the saying "bragging is also taxed". In the era of globalization on the basis of industrial civilization, many rules of the game have been formed, these rules involve various interests and obligations, you brag, provide some unrealistic data, in the eyes of others, since you have announced these data, you must enter the corresponding rules of the game according to this, bear the corresponding obligations.
Chang Xiuze: As you know, the BRICS countries recently met in South Africa, which is an important gathering of developing countries to discuss "world issues". If China is not a developing country but a developed country, how can it be qualified to participate in the "Developing Countries" conference? How can they be the backbone of developing countries? This declares you ineligible from the root. This is a major strategic issue.
Unfortunately, some people have problems with this perception. Mr. Lu Xun said back then: "the laurel of paper paste" is unacceptable, and he used the word "laurel of paper paste", which is very profound. We need to be calm, and I ask a question here: "How far is the per capita GDP of the Chinese from the target set by **?" ”
Our GDP per capita is only 1$250,000 (less than $1 at the current exchange rate.)$20,000), this level is 1320,000 US dollars, which is far from the threshold of 20,000 US dollars in developed countries. As for the 2035 proposed to reach the "intermediate level of developed countries"3The $50,000 target is even closer. Therefore, we must be humble and cautious and continue to work hard!
Network map: BRICS flags.
Xia Jun: It seems that since we have developed through exchanges with the world, China's modernization will inevitably be a modernization that goes hand in hand with the rest of the world, and it cannot be a modernization in which the country is closed off and the country is entertained. Then we must carefully study the rules of the game formed in the process of growth and development of those modernized economies, and be careful and cautious in words and deeds, otherwise it is probably not the choice of the wise to pay the price of blood and sweat because of a moment of vanity.
The economic development of a country with a vast territory and a large population is a marathon process of diligence, earnestness, arduous and simple, and in terms of words and deeds, it should even be a process of prudent words and deeds that are like walking on thin ice and approaching the abyss, because the country cannot afford to pay the price, and the hundreds of millions of people who rely on their daily work to earn meals for the old and young and the mortgage for the month cannot afford to lose their jobs and reduce their salaries. (*Thought Scene***.)
Professor Chang Xiuze (left) and director Xia Jun (right).