The first two episodes talk about the election of Haley and Biden after the Xinhan primary, and this episode talks about Trump, look at the number of votes in the ticket warehouse, and see Trump's advantage against Biden. （Click to see the **, there are **, charts, maps, information videos
Click**: Why is Trump sad and angry? Isn't it a winning streak? - 2024**17c Episode Questionnaire: 2024, independent ticket.
a.I don't like to fight again; b.will boycott and abandon the election on a large scale; c.will support Haley one-sidedly; d.will support Trump one-sidedly; e.will support Biden one-sidedly; f.Huichuan-Hai-Bai three points; g.Who wins and who loses will be decided; h.It's hard to say.
Protagonist Trump
There are several Trump-Haley updates: Trump raised 46 million in six months, less than half of Biden's three-month fund, and most of the primaries have been burned; Trump wants to appeal and be fined 83.3 million after being sentenced by a jury in the ** defamation case; Former Trump White House spokesman Grisham said that Trump's wife Melanie has been pressuring Trump to face the lawsuit; The policy rivalry between the Republican Senate leadership and Trump is becoming increasingly apparent.
The Koch family, the Republican Party's largest donors, continues to support Haley; Landon Parvin, a former Reagan contributor, told the Flower Street that Haley needs to fight back against Trump's dirty attacks, but not alone, be humorous, go straight to the point, and speak for all Republicans who have been insulted, degraded, suppressed, and threatened by Trump, especially Desanis and Christie; Haley commented on Trump's judicial doom for the first time, saying "how can we in the United States accept this", and then received another 4 million donations.
Biden has entered ** mode, and all parties are talking about ** There will be red votes, but Biden's polls are still diving, Biden is not more red than Reagan blue? Reagan's blue ticket that year was because of Reagan, and this year's Biden red ticket, if it happens, is because of Trump.
Back to Trump, 2024 is the year of Trump, and whether he wins or loses, Trump is still the male No. 1. The protagonist Trump, won Aizhou and won Xinhan, but why did he choose two days in the primary?
Let's start with Trump's advantage. As a politician, Trump dominates with a largely stable base**. Many Sichuan people fanatically support Trump personally, regardless of the political platform, policy, character, and performance, follow without asking the reason, and do not accept opposition, which is simply known as "Sichuan fans" in history. Various estimates of this vote base currently range from 20 to 30 percent, accounting for the majority of the Republican Party, the mainstream. However, even the admirers of the star chasers may not be impregnable, and how big the Sichuan Pan is ultimately depends on the final outcome of the primary election.
As an incumbent, Biden has a home advantage: the primary election is at ease, **with the help of the White House, **headlines, and voter familiarity are all favorable factors. But as a former, Trump's appearance and voter familiarity are not low, and there are many people who praise his economic policies.
As a former member of the third election, Trump's performance in the primaries so far is acceptable, but it is completely different, Trump has never won a majority or the most votes so far, and the Republican Congress and local elections he led have also been unsatisfactory, as well as Trump's unique judicial troubles. Is the judicial case Trump's weakness?
Judicial troubles
Trump's judicial troubles have been in trouble for exactly one year, and the impact on the election is still a double-edged sword. The anti-Sichuan side believes that the crime is deserved, while the Trump public base believes that all the accusations against Trump are "political enemies" of those in power. Every time he appeared in court, Trump received more Republican support, just taking the opportunity to raise funds, but it is difficult to estimate how many votes the sympathy vote effect will eventually earn**. On the other hand, if Trump is convicted after the trial, he will lose a significant percentage of voter support. According to NPR polls, the conviction will cost Trump 30% of the Republican vote, or more than 10 percent even if it is discounted. Based on the Republican Party's total 30 percent, the Lieutenant General's net loss is about 4-9 percent. Is it useful that Trump is desperately postponing the trial with constant appeals?
Defendant Trump
Trump's two civil lawsuits are a big start to Trump's life. The New York State v. Chuan family financial fraud case was concluded, and the prosecution sought a fine of 3700 million and revocation of business licenses in the state.
Click**: Roaring in court, can Trump save the family business from being ruined? - Trump's fraud case, 3e Jean Carroll v. Trump** defamation case, was tried in federal court in New York last year and was awarded 5 million, and the second trial is underway asking for an additional 10 million. Trump personally appeared in court and testified, wanting to use the court as a campaign forum, angering judges and juries, and was finally awarded 83.3 million.
No matter how carefully Trump protects his personal assets, such a huge amount of cash may lead to a bankruptcy protection filing, and it will also make Trump physically and mentally frustrated, after all, Trump's housekeeping capital is not the most successful, but a well-crafted super-rich persona. In the end, the disaster of personal failure can only be borne alone, and it cannot be supported by the Sichuan party and the Sichuan people.
Trump has been wrestling with the United States judiciary for half a century, and justice is one of the last lines of defense for the United States establishment to stop Trump, the other being **. In China, the rejection of the Sichuan ticket is very important, is it also a ** ticket?
Abstentions**
Knowing that you can't win and still refusing to vote for the leader, this is called ** vote. 49% of the Republican votes in Ai did not vote for Trump, including the "reject Trump never trumper" vote, and the Republican and independent votes in the New Han primary election each accounted for half of the votes, which needs further analysis.
According to local polls, Never Trumper should account for 10-20% of the Republican Party. Although this part of the votes cannot win the primary election, in **, this part of the people either abstained from voting or voted for others, even if they have withdrawn from the election or have not participated in the election. For example, Chris Christie and Hutchinson's votes and Liz Cheney's supporters will definitely not vote for Sichuan, will there be at least a 3% reduction in **?
Extended reading: Trump wins Xinhan, Biden is happy? -2024**17b The most famous precedent is that in 2016, a large number of supporters of the Socialist Sanders refused to vote for Mrs. Hillary Clinton, so that the Democratic Party urgently issued the final cry for help "If you don't vote, you will vote for Trump". Does Biden have a similar problem? Yes. Although no one mentioned "refusing to vote for Biden Never Bidener", the refusal to support Biden within the Democratic Party is as high as nearly 10%, while the anti-Biden blue camp continues to be 5 points lower than Never Trumper, and the NYT support polls are 91%-86% respectively. The final net vote difference caused by the ticket is estimated to be no less than 2%. What else is there?
Buy one, get one free
Mutiny votes are the most lethal, one vote mutiny is equal to two votes, one is equal to two, buy one get one free. In 2016, the Blue Sanders Socialist Party not only refused to vote, but also defected to Trump en masse, causing Hillary to lose the swing state and **.
In 2024, according to NBC polls, 43% of Nikki Haley's basic market said that they would rather vote for Biden than Trump, and if it is cashed out, according to Haley's minimum 20% approval rate, the net result will be a loss of 2 for Trump5%, Biden gets 25%, which is equivalent to a 5-point difference! Of course, these percentages need to be discounted, minus some of the middle votes attracted by Haley and the anti-Biden moderate votes in the blue camp. For example, 4? Like 3%? Even if Haley admits defeat and resides Trump, it is hard to imagine that Haley will vote for Trump. Then take the lowest, 3%, which is still seriously detrimental to Trump. Anything else?
Further reading: Why is Trump afraid of Haley? Who is afraid of whom if Hailey does not retreat? -2024**17aZero-sum showdown
The middle vote, which accounts for 40% of the total votes, is a zero-sum vote, without too many "ifs" and "buts", without die-hard loyalty, worship, superstition, and followers, and without rejecting who against whom. New Han independent votes were allowed to participate in the primary election, and the result was 70% lighter for Haley.
According to the NYT poll, the split tendency of independent votes is currently very clear: Biden 50% - Trump 38%, a difference of 12 points, far beyond the statistical error, with a net contribution of at least 4%. Conservative calculations, adding several items, Trump's unilateral deficit should not be underestimated, and I am afraid that it will overflow beyond the swing range, which may be too large for swing states to overcome.
No matter how the electoral votes are finally distributed and distributed, and no matter how the third party and the first few parties are contained, it is expected that Biden will have an overwhelming absolute advantage over the so-called "rebel" Trump, many of whom are red votes. Will the Reagan Blue Ticket saga repeat and flip history? Trump, who is immortal in nine lives, will fall in 2024 this time?
What do you think? Let's talk in the comment area. Welcome to pay attention to "The Wind Sings and Picks Up the Sun", different anecdotes, casual gossip, straight to the essence, and back to the point. I'm Feng Ming, see you next time.