During the Spring Festival holiday in 2024, the domestic ** market will be closed for a total of 10 days.
For domestic investors, should we hold positions or close them for the holidays?
Macro data to pay attention to during the Spring Festival holiday:
Overseas Markets:On February 13, the US January CPI and core CPI; February 15, U.S. retail sales data for January; On February 16, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The better-than-expected data will have an impact on Fed rate cut expectations, which in turn will affect financial markets.
Domestic Market:Around February 10, China's credit union financing data for January.
Forward-looking analysis of risk points of key varieties
Stock index. At present, the volatility of the four major futures indexes, especially IM and IC contracts, is at a historical extreme, and the trading volume has increased sharply, reflecting the fierce battle between long and short. If the downward trend continues, it will detonate the risk of financial integration and equity pledge, and the current position has touched the bottom line of policy tolerance. **Huijin Company announced that it will continue to increase the scale and intensity of increasing its holdings in ETFs, which means that the national team has begun to openly intervene in the market; The China Securities Regulatory Commission's suspension of the scale of refinancing securities of new ** companies will also play a certain role in curbing the power of the short side. Therefore, with the support of the policy, many parties began to fight back.
Looking forward to the market outlook, if you want to reverse the downward trend, it is inevitable that the market will be fought by long and short. There is a high probability of maintaining high volatility in the near future.
Before the holiday, the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting showed that the time point of interest rate cut in the first quarter was moved back, and the recent U.S. non-farm data unexpectedly improved, which once put pressure on the trend.
Looking ahead, the core logic of the short-term market is that neither the Fed nor the market has much disagreement on a rate cut in 2024, but there is a huge difference in the time node. Through the CME Fed Watch tool, the market is still pricing in a 125 basis point rate cut in 2024, well above the 75 basis point expected by most Feds** in the December 2023 dot plot. **After the lack of upward momentum in the early stage, it is expected that the pressure will increase before and after the Spring Festival, but considering the expectation of physical consumption and hedging support, the space is limited.
Rebar
On the macro front, the central bank is scheduled to cut the reserve requirement ratio on February 5, but then there is no further stimulus policy, and market sentiment weakens again. **In terms of the long-term process, with the seasonal maintenance of steel mills and low profitability, the output of hot metal is running at a low level. In terms of demand, the demand for real estate steel is still weak, and the decline in the area of new construction of leading indicators has expanded. Infrastructure investment has fallen, and capital is still restricting infrastructure investment. Inventories tend to accumulate. Overall, the early macro strong expectations and winter storage replenishment have been realized in the current steel prices, before the Spring Festival, the black plate is driven by the cost support of the furnace end and the risk point is the reality of the off-season finished stock, which is expected to show a weak pattern before the holiday. The rebound in steel prices after the Spring Festival lies in the actual improvement of terminal demand and the warming of the macro environment.
Risk Factors:Steel mill capacity performance, coking profits, disk sentiment, etc.
Copper: Shanghai copper rushed up and fell back to wait for more guidance
The early stage of the good is basically digested, and the domestic social inventory continues to accumulate posture, but the tension at the mine end is still intensifying, and the decline of Shanghai copper is limited. On the macro front, overseas interest rate cuts in March are expected to weaken under the resilience of the economy, and the timely introduction of new policies in China has hedged the pessimistic expectations in the early stage, which is conducive to resonance but relatively limited in intensity. On the supply and demand side, copper concentrate processing fees have been falling and falling recently, and the current spot TC level has been lower than the cost line of smelters. As of January 29, SMM's copper inventory in mainstream areas across the country increased by 0680,000 tons to 9200,000 tons. Compared with last Friday's inventory change, the inventory in most regions across the country has increased, only the Shanghai area has decreased slightly, and the total inventory has increased from 26 in the same period last year390,000 tons low 17190,000 tons. According to SMM, more downstream will enter a holiday state this week, downstream consumption will be further weakened, and smelters will increase the amount sent to warehouses.