The five-year LPR remained at 4 for 8 consecutive monthsAfter 2%, it was lowered for the first time.
On the 20th, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce the latest February LPR**, 1-year loan market ** interest rate (LPR) reported 345% compared to 3 in the previous month45%；LPR with a term of more than 5 years is reported as 395% compared to 4 in the previous month2%, a significant 25 basis point reduction. This means that at present, major banks in Guangzhou generally implement the first set of LPR-10BP, that is, 385%；Two sets of LPR+30BP, that is, 425%。
Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, believes that "the LPR has started from 420% to 395%, which was 4The first downward adjustment on the basis of 20% also shows that it has created positive conditions for the easing of macroeconomic and monetary and financial conditions this year. This will have a positive effect on the improvement of the economic situation and the optimization of the environment this year. ”
He stressed that in terms of historical adjustments, China has a total of 8 five-year LPR cuts, but in the past, the reduction was generally carried out by 5-15 basis points. This one-time cut of 25 basis points is the most drastic rate cut in history. "That's the biggest signal. In other words, the biggest cycle of interest rate cuts in history begins. ”
It is worth noting that, from the perspective of the LPR formation mechanism, the LPR is calculated by 18 ** banks according to the MLF interest rate, and the data after the weighted average calculation is removed. Generally speaking, symmetric adjustments to 1-year and 5-year LPRs are the norm, but asymmetric adjustments are not uncommon.
Yang Chang, chief analyst of the Sino-Thai ** Research Institute, said that the asymmetric downward adjustment reflects at least three intentions: first, monetary policy is also cooperating with the stable start of the economy, after the Spring Festival holiday, work from the supply side of funds, by reducing loan interest, reducing financing costs, with the intention of a stable start to the economy in 2024 is more obvious;
Second, the asymmetric reduction of interest rates of different maturities indicates that the policy hopes to play a role in the object of focus, keeping the 1-year LPR unchanged, or indicating that the stimulus intention for manufacturing investment and consumption is relatively stable;
Third, due to the relatively strong correlation between the 5-year LPR and the real estate market, from the early point of view, the reduction of the 5-year LPR interest rate is also part of the real estate market demand-side policy combination, at this stage, the 5-year LPR interest rate has been significantly reduced by 25 BP, combined with the recent intensive introduction of more policy measures around the real estate market, which fully reflects the policy intention of the interest rate policy to participate in activating the real estate market and promoting the virtuous cycle of the real estate market.
Yan Yuejin also said, "The real estate market is currently in the stage of stabilization and recovery, but the recovery process needs to be consolidated. The interest rate cut is good for the reduction of the cost of funds, which directly leads to the reduction of housing loans, which has a positive impact on the housing loan market. We simply calculate that if the loan principal of 1 million yuan and the repayment of equal principal and interest for 30 years are calculated, the monthly payment of home buyers can be reduced by about 150 yuan after the interest rate cut. It is a relatively large reduction in burden, which will help to further promote mortgage application and consumption. It also has a positive effect on the subsequent activity of the housing market. ”
Written by: Nandu Bay Finance Agency reporter Wang Yanling.