Lithium battery energy storage occupies an absolute dominant position in the new energy storage installation, and will be the main force of energy storage construction in a long period of time, and energy storage has also become a battleground for lithium battery manufacturers. Power battery, consumer battery manufacturers, new forces combining technology and capital, energy storage system integration enterprises, photovoltaic investment enterprises backward integration, traditional lead-acid battery enterprise transformation, etc., industry entrants are numerous, overcapacity concerns emerge, and enterprises that can give full play to technology and cost advantages will gradually dominate the industry market.
01 The current situation of market size
According to EVtank data, the global shipment of energy storage lithium batteries in 2022 will be 1593GWh, a year-on-year increase of 1403%, accounting for 1663%, second only to power batteries (684.).2GWh, accounting for 7144%）；In the first half of 2023, global shipments of lithium batteries for energy storage will reach 1102GWh, a year-on-year increase of 734%。EVTANK** will reach 1,892 global shipments of energy storage lithium batteries by 20307gwh。According to GGII**, the compound growth rate of the energy storage field will exceed 70% in the next three years, and global energy storage battery shipments will approach 700GWh by 2025 and exceed 2TWh by 2030.
Figure 1 2014-2023H1 global energy storage lithium battery shipments and growth rate.
Source**: EVTANK&Ivey Economic Research Institute, "Development of China's Energy Storage Battery Industry*** 2023)", August 2023. Compiled by Shenzhen Enterprise Investment Industry Research Institute.
Chinese manufacturers dominate the global energy storage lithium battery market. According to GGII data, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments in 2022 will be 130GWh, a year-on-year increase of 1708%, accounting for more than 80% of the world's total. According to EVTark data, in the first half of 2023, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments will be 1014GWh, accounting for 92% of global energy storage lithium battery shipments. From the perspective of output, according to the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, from January to August 2023, China's energy storage lithium battery output is about 110GWh, accounting for 19% of the total output of lithium batteries. According to GGII**, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments will reach 430GWh in 2025 and a CAGR of 49% from 2022 to 2025.
Figure 2 2019-2023H1 China's energy storage lithium battery shipments (GWh).
Source**: EVTANK, GGII, compiled by Shenzhen Enterprise Investment Industry Research Institute.
In terms of market segments:
Electric energy storage is still the largest market. According to GGII data, in 2022, China's shipments of lithium batteries for power storage will reach 92GWh, a year-on-year increase of more than 200%, accounting for 70% of more than energy storage shipments. According to ICC statistics, in the first half of 2023, global power energy storage lithium battery shipments will be 79GWh, with the fastest growth rate, accounting for 77% of energy storage shipments. GGII expects that by 2025, China's lithium battery shipments for power storage will be close to 300GWh.
The household energy storage track is hot, and the shipment growth rate is the fastest. In 2022, the energy security problems and energy inflation crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict will drive the explosion of photovoltaic + household energy storage installed capacity in Europe, and at the same time, the demand for household energy storage will continue to be strong under the support of factors such as the subsidy policies of Europe and the United States for household energy storage investment and market-based electricity prices. According to GGII data, China's household energy storage lithium battery shipments will reach 25GWh in 2022, an increase of 354 year-on-year5%, is the fastest growing field of lithium batteries, accounting for 19% of energy storage lithium battery shipments. According to GGII**, the global shipment of domestic household energy storage lithium batteries is expected to exceed 100GWh in 2026.
Telecom energy storage lithium battery to accelerate the penetration of substitution. The construction of communication base stations, especially 5G base stations (including the upgrading of existing base stations), has driven the rapid growth of lithium batteries for energy storage in base stations, and EVTash data shows that in 2022, the shipments of lithium-ion batteries for energy storage for communication base stations in China will reach 107GWh, up 17 percent year-on-year4%, accounting for more than 60% of the energy storage batteries used in communication base stations, and the trend of replacing lead-acid batteries is becoming more and more obvious. EVTark expects that by 2030, the cumulative market demand for energy storage batteries for communication base stations in China will reach 1427GWh, its cumulative market size will reach 84 billion yuan.
Portable energy storage batteries are mainly overseas. According to GGII statistics, the global portable energy storage market will reach 19 billion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year increase of about 90%, and China's portable energy storage battery shipments will be 4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 2077%。According to the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association**, the global portable energy storage power supply market will increase from 111 in 2021300 million yuan, an increase to 882 in 2026300 million yuan, and shipments are expected to reach 31.1 million units in 2026. The current main market for portable energy storage is in Europe and the United States, with the United States and Japan accounting for respectively in 2022, and the European market accounting for nearly 20%. Due to the high proportion of overseas exports, portable energy storage has become one of the hottest categories of cross-border e-commerce in 2022, and shipments will continue to grow at a high rate in 2021.
02 Industry pattern
From the perspective of global energy storage lithium battery shipments in 2022, CATL's shipments will reach 53GWh, far ahead in the world; BYD, Ruipu Lanjun, EVE Lithium Energy, LG New Energy, and Samsung SDI shipments are between 9-13GWh; Ganfeng Lithium Battery, Penghui Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Haichen Energy Storage, Peneng Technology, Xiamen Xinneng'an, Panasonic, Envision Power, Nandu Power, China Innovation Aviation and other shipments are between 2-6GWh, and other companies include Pulit (Haisida), Shuangdeng Group, Zhongtian Energy Storage, Shengyang Power Supply, Leoch International, Tianjin Lishen, Tianneng Co., Ltd., Haiji New Energy, Zhitai New Energy (sales volume 0.).25GWh or so), etc., the shipment volume is 0between 1-2 GWh. The world's top 10 manufacturers account for 82% of global shipments.
Figure 3 Global energy storage lithium battery manufacturers' shipments (GWh) in 2022
Source**: EVTANK's "2023 Annual Competitive Brand List of Energy Storage Batteries in China's Lithium Battery Industry", SNE Research, Xinchun Lithium Battery, financial reports of various companies, etc., compiled by Shenzhen Enterprise Investment Industry Research Institute. LG and Samsung use SNE Research data, Panasonic according to the production data of Xinchun lithium battery, Shuangdeng Group according to its own production data in the prospectus, Kunyu Power, Pulit, Zhongtian Energy Storage, Leoch International, Tianneng shares are estimated according to the revenue data in the relevant annual reports.
Judging from China's energy storage lithium battery shipments in the first half of 2023, CATL's shipments will reach 34GWh, accounting for a decline; The shipments of BYD, EVE and Ruipu Lanjun are between 7-12GWh; Ganfeng Lithium Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Penghui Energy, Haichen Energy Storage, and Penghui Energy have shipments between 5-7GWh; Envision Power, Xiamen Xinneng'an, Nandu Power, China Innovation Airlines and other shipments are in 2-4between 5GWh; The shipments of other companies are at 0between 1-2 GWh. The world's top 10 manufacturers account for 82% of global shipments. China's top 10 manufacturers account for more than 90% of the country's shipments.
Figure 4 Shipments of lithium battery manufacturers for energy storage in China in the first half of 2023 (GWh).
Data**: EVTANK, financial reports of various companies, etc., compiled by Shenzhen Enterprise Investment Industry Research Institute. Nandu Power reports the production data according to the semi-annual report, and China Innovation Airlines, Plit, Powerway, and Far East Co., Ltd. are estimated according to the revenue data of the annual report; Honeycomb Energy, Zhongtian Energy Storage, Shengyang Power Supply, Tianjin Lishen, and Haiji New Energy are estimated according to public information on the Internet.
On the whole, at present, China's energy storage lithium battery enterprises can be divided into five categories:
The first is to expand the market layout of energy storage batteries by enterprises based on power batteries. With the fierce competition and slowing down the growth of power batteries, power battery companies have aimed at the high-growth energy storage market, and more than 30 mainstream power battery companies have entered the energy storage battery track. In the first half of 2023, among the top 10 manufacturers of energy storage lithium battery shipments in China, in addition to Haichen Energy Storage and Xiamen Xinneng'an (CATL joint venture), the rest such as CATL, BYD, EVE Lithium Energy, Ruipu Lanjun, Ganfeng Lithium Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Penghui Energy, Envision Power, etc., are all enterprises that have started power battery business earlier. In addition to the top 10 manufacturers, the energy storage battery business scale of power battery companies such as China Innovation Aviation and Honeycomb Energy has also grown rapidly, and others include Tianjin Lishen, Funeng Technology, Yaoning Technology, Zhengli New Energy, Polyfluorine, Azure Lithium Core, BAK Battery, Jiewei Power, Tianjin New Energy, Juwan Technology Research, Aerospace Lithium Battery, etc. In addition, enterprises that originally focused on consumer electronics batteries, such as Sunwoda and Desay Battery (the original small power battery business), can also be classified into this category.
The second is the "new force" enterprise of energy storage battery integrated by the technical team and industrial capital. Mainly relying on technology accumulation, focusing on the energy storage battery track, large-scale investment in the construction of production capacity of enterprises, such as Haichen Energy Storage, Chuneng New Energy, Shenghong Kinetic Energy, Exxon New Energy, Baofeng Energy, Zhitai New Energy, etc., such enterprises are generally operated by the R&D technical team with technical accumulation and industrial capital.
The third is the battery manufacturer that entered the energy storage market earlier and takes energy storage as its main business. Among them, it can be divided into two categories, one is the early involved in the manufacture of battery cells (including lead-acid batteries), and the other is the integration of energy storage systems and the development of battery cell manufacturing. The representative enterprises of traditional battery extension include Nandu Power, Pulit (Haisida), Xiongtao Co., Ltd., Shuangdeng Group, Shengyang Power Supply, Leoch International, Tianneng Co., Ltd., Camel Co., Ltd., etc.; In the early days, lithium battery manufacturers later focused on energy storage batteries, such as Peneng Technology, Kunyu Power (formerly Guangyu Battery), Anhui Liwei Power, etc.; Energy storage system integration enterprises extend to Zhongtian Energy Storage, Haiji New Energy, Topband, Kexin Technology, Linyang Energy, etc.
Fourth, photovoltaic module and photovoltaic power station investment enterprises, under the general trend of photovoltaic storage integration, set foot in energy storage lithium batteries, and carry out vertical integration layout. Such as Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, Canadian Solar, GCL Group, etc. Some companies, such as Trina Solar, mainly purchased battery cells for system integration in the early days, and are currently investing in large-scale production capacity of battery cell manufacturing. However, with the overall decline of battery cells, system integration companies may still change their investment decisions for self-built production capacity.
03 Market Trends
Energy storage cells are developing in the direction of larger capacity, low cost, long life and high safety. At present, the main battery cell capacity of energy storage is 280ah, and the batteries used in large-scale energy storage systems are mainly 280ah prismatic aluminum shell batteries. By increasing the bulk density of a single cell, that is, the capacity density of the cell under the same volume, the large-capacity battery can effectively reduce the cost of the energy storage system and reduce the difficulty of integration. With the increasingly fierce competition in the market, some bidding announcements have clearly required that the capacity of the battery cell shall not be less than 280ah. Therefore, 300ah+ large-capacity batteries are becoming the key research and development products of enterprises, showing a trend of a hundred flowers blooming. For example, the 560Ah battery cell launched by EVE (expected to be delivered in 2023) is twice the common size of 280Ah square cells, which is equivalent to two 280Ah cells placed horizontally side by side, aiming to achieve the goal of cost reduction by reducing the structural parts in the pack. At present, more than 20 domestic battery manufacturers, including EVE Lithium Energy, Honeycomb Energy, Ruipu Lanjun, Chuneng New Energy, etc., have successively launched battery cell products with a capacity of more than 300ah.
Energy storage battery capacity planning is growing rapidly. According to EnergyTrend, as of July 24, 2023, energy storage manufacturers have announced plans to expand production with a total investment of more than 300 billion yuan, and a total planned expansion capacity of energy storage batteries and systems exceeding 900GWh. According to incomplete statistics from Gaogong Energy Storage, as of August this year, the capacity planning of energy storage batteries (including lithium batteries, sodium batteries, and flow batteries) and systems has exceeded 2TWh. Zhu Gongshan, chairman of GCL Group, said that as of the first half of 2023, the actual production capacity of domestic power (energy storage) batteries is nearly 1,900GWh, and the nominal capacity utilization rate of the industry is less than half, and it is still declining, and the hidden worry of overcapacity is emerging. In the first half of 2023, the effective capacity utilization rate of China's energy storage lithium battery market will be less than 50%, which is still higher than the capacity utilization rate of power batteries. According to GGII estimates, the installation rate of the terminal market in the second half of the year is higher than the industry expansion rate, which is expected to promote the capacity utilization rate of energy storage lithium batteries to more than 50%. Due to the fierce competition in the power battery market, and the difficulty of switching the production capacity of power battery production lines to energy storage batteries is not high, power battery companies are also accelerating the layout of energy storage batteries, which may also intensify the competition for production capacity.
Energy storage batteries** continue to decline. At present, the energy storage industry chain continues to decline, mainly due to several reasons: first, the upstream raw materials have fallen, such as the recent decline of battery-grade lithium carbonate to less than 160,000 tons; In addition to the major power battery manufacturers, the projects that have been put into operation in 2023 include Chuneng New Energy (Yichang), Xingheng Power, Exxon New Energy, Yijiatong, Deyi New Energy, Yiyang Changtian, Aerospace Lithium Battery, etc., The cumulative release capacity of 280Ah energy storage batteries in the first half of the year is expected to exceed 150GW, and large-scale projects under construction include Haichen Energy Storage, Boliwei, Nandu Power, Kunyu Power, Haisida, Shengyang Power, Haiji New Energy, Kexin Technology, Polyfluorine, EVE Linyang, Canadian Solar, Jinko Solar, Baofeng Energy, Shenghong Kinetic Energy, Juwan Technology Research, Kingcar Energy Storage, Sinochem Yangzhou Lithium Battery, Hengdian East Magnetic, Liandong Tianyi, Zhitai New Energy, Yingao Energy Storage and dozens of other projects. According to the CCID Research Institute, as of September 2023, the bid** of the energy storage system has decreased by nearly 30% compared with 2022, and the lowest** has dropped to 09 yuan or so.
The energy storage battery market is becoming increasingly competitive. At the end of August 2023, the first phase of the 40GWh project of Chuneng New Energy's energy storage battery base in Yichang was put into operation, according to relevant reports, at the 2023 Gaogong Photovoltaic New Energy Storage Conference, the chairman of Chuneng New Energy publicly stated that by the end of this year, the 280ah battery cells of Chuneng New Energy will not exceed 0 including tax57 yuan wh, excl. tax 0$5 wh sales, compared to the current market **(0.85 yuan wh) down 40% and is not subject to fluctuations in upstream resources. At present, many leading battery manufacturers in the market have taken the lead to 05 yuan wh (equivalent to tax **0.)565 yuan Wh). And if the purchase volume is large, it can be discounted. It remains to be seen whether competition will lead the industry into a reshuffle.
Compulsory distribution and storage is the core driving force for the current development of electric energy storage batteries. Since 2022, the country's energy storage policies have been intensively promulgated, not only clarifying the independent market status of energy storage, formulating market rules for energy storage to participate in electricity market transactions, but also proposing the 14th Five-Year Plan for new energy storage, and accelerating the progress of electricity price reform. The power generation side and the grid side distribution and storage are working simultaneously to promote the rapid growth of lithium battery shipments for power energy storage. Most provinces require that the distribution and storage ratio is not less than 10%*2h of the installed capacity. In terms of power generation side distribution and storage, the five large and four small energy central enterprises are the absolute main force in the investment and procurement of domestic energy storage projects in 2022. According to incomplete statistics, in 2022, the scale of centralized procurement bidding for energy storage batteries, systems or EPCs by central enterprises will reach 266GWh, far exceeding other social investors in the same period. However, the scale threshold of the first power storage lithium battery manufacturer is high, and having sufficient production capacity (such as an annual production capacity of more than 2GWh) is the premise of obtaining orders from large customers.
Overseas inventory is backlogged, and the growth rate of household energy storage shipments has slowed down recently. According to S&P Global Commodity Insights data, in the second quarter of 2023, global residential energy storage shipments fell by 2% quarter-on-quarter, the first decline, directly due to the high inventory backlog under the explosive growth of household storage since 2022. In the first half of 2023, European dealers are basically consuming the backlog of inventory at the end of 2022, according to ICC statistics, in the first half of 2023, the global home energy storage lithium battery shipments will be 13GWh, and the growth rate has slowed down significantly, accounting for 127%。
Lithium battery manufacturers are competing for the household energy storage track, and large cylindrical batteries are gradually attracting attention. Household energy storage is a typical C-end market, and end users and household storage system enterprises are relatively insensitive to the procurement of battery cells, with large profit margins, stable market demand, and good customer account periods, so it has become a key track for lithium battery manufacturers to compete. Household energy storage cells mainly include square, soft pack and cylindrical. At the capacity level of battery cells, square 50ah-100ah, soft pack 30ah-80ah, cylindrical 10ah-50ah, in general, 100ah, 50ah square aluminum shell batteries are the mainstay. The small capacity of a single cell can improve the adaptability of the battery, enrich the module form, and make the charge more diverse. However, large cylindrical batteries have poured into the household energy storage track, mainly in the system, and will become one of the important battery choices in the household energy storage battery track. From the perspective of enterprises, EVE's large cylindrical production capacity layout is relatively leading, the first large cylindrical production line has been completed, and it is expected that two new production lines will be added by the end of the year, with a total production capacity of 20GWh, which will be first used in the field of power batteries.
Capital has poured into the portable energy storage track, and the brand-OEM pattern is more obvious. Since 2022, consumer electronics companies such as Xiaomi, Bull, and Transsion have successively entered the portable energy storage battery track. According to the GGII "2023H1 Global Portable Energy Storage (Outdoor Power Supply) Ranking" list, the top five companies in the global portable energy storage market in terms of sales are Zhenghao Innovation, Huabao New Energy, Delan Minghai, Goal Zero and Anker Innovations. The key players in the market also include Greenlink, Xiaomi, Bull, Yizu, Changya, Baseus, Romas, and others. However, at present, the leading brand manufacturers generally do not produce their own battery cells, and some also entrust the overall production (including battery packs) to the OEM.
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