The Spring Festival is coming soon, and I want to talk to you about the housing slaves.
Shareholders and house slaves, in a sense, represent the two largest reservoirs of the RMB: ** and the property market.
There is a sentence written in the economics book: ** is a barometer of the property market.
But this is obviously not recognized by our developers, and they all agree that the property market, as a pillar industry of the national economy, is the real barometer.
Su Shi once wrote such a poem: The prophet of the plumbing duck in the spring river.
In the end, who can really reflect the economic situation, I think, it should be shareholders and house slaves.
Recently, I saw a paragraph titled "Three Years in the Financial Circle".
Venture capital: 22 years of consumption, 23 years of chips, 24 years of potential.
Entrepreneurs: 22 years looking for A round, 23 years looking for B round, 24 years looking for rooftop;
Analysts: 22 years to look at the macro, 23 years to look at the sector, 24 years to look at the door;
Developer: 22 years to run**, 23 years to run the bank, 24 years to run;
High-net-worth clients: 22 years for wealth management, 23 years for private equity, 24 years for rights protection;
Stockholders: 22 years on new positions, 23 years on leverage, 24 years on credit.
Looking at this paragraph, although it is funny, it is a portrayal of reality, it is really funny and crying.
The hall master always thinks that this paragraph is almost meaningful, what is the difference? Buyers.
Keep the upstairs formation, it should look like this:
Buyers: 22 years to ensure the house price, 23 years to ensure the delivery of the building, 24 years to protect the job.
Let's talk about shareholders first.
Looking back at the A** field, there has been a characteristic over the years: the bull is short and the bear is long.
Historically, the average duration of a bull market is 348 months, the bear market is 525 months.
In this way, there are 1 more bear markets than bull markets5 years.
Especially after entering 2000, there were 37 months of bull market with an average duration of 185 months.
The bear market, on the other hand, has 173 months and an average duration of 577 months, a comparison, the duration of the bear market is three times that of the bull market, let's just say, how to do this?
So, how to understand the bull short and bear long of A shares?
There are many angles that can be said, but today I will only talk about one: from the perspective of mechanism, A-shares are conducive to corporate financing, but not conducive to investor returns.
I have shared a book with you before, which is the autobiography "Twenty Years of Honor and Disgrace: My ** Life" written by Kan Zhidong, who participated in China's ** from zero to one experience.
When our market was established, the main purpose was to finance state-owned enterprises.
Later, this setting was changed, and now it has formed a diversified financing role in the market.
If you will focus on the key points, you will see the key word: financing responsibility.
Sanlian has reported such a set of data: among our financing channels, the banking channel is the dominant one.
Indirect financing, mainly bank loans, accounts for as much as 70%, which is just the opposite of developed countries, which mainly rely on direct financing such as equity and bonds, accounting for about 70%.
In this case, only state-owned enterprises and large enterprises will be able to get most of the financing, and the rest will have to think of other ways.
So we can understand why so many companies are vying to go public, because listing can raise money.
In 2021, 2022 and 2023, in the past three years, we have surpassed the United States in terms of financing scale and number of IPOs, ranking first in the world.
Once again, we are far ahead, so to speak.
Of course, one point is not included in the lead: market capitalization.
According to the data, the total market value of A-shares in 2023 will be about 87 trillion yuan.
However, the six American technology companies Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia, Facebook and Tesla will add up to more than $1,241.6 billion in 2023, which is converted to more than 84 trillion yuan.
To put it bluntly, most of them are just for financing, and then there are all kinds of ** cash-outs.
On the financing side, there are Zhejiang Guoxiang backdoor and secondary listing, and there are various fancy actions such as divorce and technical skills.
If you sort out the above information, you can know that under such a mechanism, if you want to make money, it is undoubtedly a matter of taking a chestnut from the fire.
It can be said that in the end, the most hurt is the stockholders.
Of course, you can also call it a leek, such as the hall master.
If the pattern is a little higher, it is not said that so, but: shareholders are to contribute!
It's not what I said, it's what the experts say.
Let's talk about buyers.
In the past, when buying a house, they all followed a rule: buying is earning, and buying smart is better than buying early.
However, now it is different, in the face of the situation, if you don't buy, you make money.
All sorts of data point to a steady stream of stumbling.
On the land market side: In 2023, the transaction area of residential land in 300 cities across the country will drop by more than 20% year-on-year
On the supply and demand side of the market: In 2023, the sales area of newly built commercial residential buildings in key 100 cities will decrease by about 6% year-on-year.
On the development investment side: In 2023, the national real estate development investment will be 110913 billion yuan, a decrease of 96%
In the second-hand housing market, the second-hand housing in 100 cities has accumulated 353%, a decline of 276 percentage points, the trend of housing prices continues to be sluggish.
But in the green bush, there are still two points of red.
Let me ask you a question, do you think the ** of new houses in 2023 will rise or fall?
The answer may surprise many people, on the side of the new residential buildings, the new residential buildings in 100 cities **cumulative**027%。
Doesn't it mean that the property market is sluggish and the house can't be sold? How can it still appear**?
The middle finger research is also very simple and straightforward: subject to policy control!
Note that this is a new house, not a second-hand house.
In fact, in the new housing market, due to external factors, housing prices are generally not very high, which also provides the possibility for further exploration.
The second bonus is that the average monthly transaction of new commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities is 670,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of about 4%.
According to the same data, the average monthly transaction volume in second-tier cities was 450,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 37%。
Third-tier cities declined even more, with an average monthly transaction of 160,000 square meters, down 114%。
Sure enough, the differentiation of cities is becoming more and more obvious, with waterlogging dying and drought.
So, what is the willingness of buyers now?
In January, the China Index Research Institute conducted a sample survey in about 267 cities in 30 provinces, and the survey subjects included the post-70s to post-00s.
The results show that the main force who want to buy a house is concentrated in the range of post-85s to post-95s, and the corresponding age is 26 to 40 years old.
At the same time, the proportion of people who have plans to buy a house within half a year has dropped to 199%。
In other words, there are still 5 people who have plans to buy a house.
So according to this survey, it shows that there is still a certain amount of demand for buying a house.
It's understandable, who wouldn't want to live in their own house?
If you look at the purpose of purchase, the top three are housing improvement, rigid demand and school district housing.
I used to buy a small apartment, but now I have to take the elderly to live here, or the two children in the family have grown up, and I want to change to a bigger house
Or grit your teeth and buy a school district house so that children can receive better educational resources.
It is said that buying a house is equivalent to taking into your own future, losing yourself, and you can only work for the boss.
But when you think about it, most people don't want that.
Most people in this age group are old and young.
Parents are old, don't worry about still living in their hometown, children are older, and they don't want to lose at the starting line.
The word "responsibility" on his shoulders forced him to buy a house.
Always thinking that if you work harder, your family will be better, this is engraved in our bones.
This is an advantage, but it is also an invisible shackle.
Are the stockholders tired, or are the house slaves more tired?
* put their own savings, some of them still carry their families behind their backs, secretly enter **, and if they lose, they can only grit their teeth and swallow them in their stomachs.
Although the house slave is above board, he also emptied his six wallets, and finally saved up for a down payment.
In the past, ** and those who bought houses, when they returned to their hometowns during the Spring Festival, at the party, these two people were talking and laughing.
* said how much his stock had risen, and the person who bought the house inadvertently revealed that he lived in a big city.
As soon as the two met, they said to each other, ** from the perspective of investment, saying that it was too much of a loss to buy a house, and after 30 years, the loan was more than the principal, which was not cost-effective. Those who buy houses feel that their brains are soaked in water before they go**.
Now, these two people sit silently in the corner, their eyes are paired, they are silent, they raise their wine glasses, and a glass is down: they are both fallen people at the end of the world, why should they have met before!
I don't talk about **, I don't talk about the house, I think that as long as I don't lose the principal, it must be God who is taking care of me.
At this moment, the two people who once looked down on each other got a trace of comfort from each other.
Now I kind of figure it out, whether it's ** or a house, if you make money, it's easy to become a show-off rhetoric at a party.
After thousands of sails, the big ups and downs only came to their senses, and the vanity, face, and comparison in these social fields are actually just passing by.
I bought leek stocks, and I was willing to do it without regrets.
If you can't afford to pay off your mortgage, it's better to think about how to find a job.
In addition to shareholders and house slaves, you and I have other identities, the children of elderly parents, and the parents who are still in their infancy.
The Spring Festival is approaching, and I wish you all a great Year of the Dragon.
The ** that I bought has a continuous daily limit, and the unfinished house is successfully delivered, and the salary will be increased for the work I do.
I'm staying up late at the head of the old city, and we'll see you next time
Publish a collection of dragon cards to share millions of cash