——Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Peking UniversityAuthorized release**Please indicate "China-US Focus".
Every time the United States and the transfer of power, the Chinese and American circles will focus on the development path of the relationship between the two countries. From Obama's re-election, to Trump's election in 2016, to Biden's re-election campaign this year, the U.S. relationship with China has gradually shifted from a "competition and cooperation" relationship in the past to a comprehensive strategic game characterized by competition and confrontation. The benign cooperation between the two countries in the past has turned into limited, conditional contact. The United States has even joined forces with its allies in key technology areas to promote decoupling from China in order to contain China's development. With the 2024 primary election begins, the bipartisan rivalry could have a greater impact on bilateral relations. So, how can China and the United States avoid conflict in the midst of strategic competition and confrontation?
On October 27, 2023, it was co-hosted by the Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS) of Peking University and the School of International Studies of Peking UniversityThe 9th "North Pavilion Dialogue".The open forum was held in the Qiulin Lecture Hall of the School of International Studies, Peking University. With the theme of "Global Security Governance: Current Situation and Prospects", the dialogue was organized by Dean of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies of Peking University and Professor of the School of International StudiesYu TiejunPreside. The seven guests who participated in the open forum were: Former Deputy Secretary of State of the United StatesJohn Negroponte, former U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Chairman of the National Intelligence CouncilJoseph Nye, Jr）, Egypt before *** longNabil Fahmy, former Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Republic of KoreaKim Sung-Hwan, the former *** long of SingaporeGeorge Yeo, Academic Director of the Russian Council on International AffairsAndrey KortunovHe is the founding dean of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies, Peking UniversityWang Jisi
Six foreign guests invited to the 9th Annual Conference of the Beijing Pavilion Dialogue at the Institute of International and Strategic Studies of Peking University.
The guests expressed their views on China-US relations, the security situation in Europe, the situation in the Indo-Pacific and the interests of developing countries, and achieved good results. The views of Chinese and foreign scholars on the strategic competition between China and the United States are summarized as follows.
Participants agreed that U.S.-China relations continued to be tense in the first half of 2023, but began to show positive signs of gradual stabilization in the second half of 2023. China and the United States should maintain official communication between the two countries and enhance people-to-people exchanges. At the same time, the two countries should not allow domestic political factors to affect bilateral relations too much.
Potential flashpoints
Some foreign participants pointed out that the potential flashpoints of deadly confrontation between China and the United States are mainly the Taiwan issue and the South China Sea issue. On the Taiwan issue, some political forces in the United States have tried to change the US stance on the issue of Taiwan's status, including advocating "diplomatic recognition" for Taiwan. He is confident that such an attempt will not succeed. On the South China Sea issue, he believes that the award of the "South China Sea Arbitration" is difficult to change, and the ruling will continue to affect the international community, especially the countries surrounding the South China Sea, on China.
Another foreign participant believed that Sino-US relations ultimately depend on the two countries themselves, and neither country wants war, so Sino-US relations can achieve long-term stability. He does not see the Taiwan issue or the South China Sea issue as a potential flashpoint of conflict between the two sides. On the Taiwan issue, Taiwan cannot use the United States to achieve its own goals;There is still room for negotiations between Taiwan and the mainland. China's claims in the South China Sea are not unfounded, but China's refusal to participate in any proceedings before the tribunal puts China on the back foot, which is not a wise move.
He hoped that in the future, countries bordering the South China Sea would be able to negotiate and reach a compromise to make the South China Sea a "Mediterranean" connecting the region. He also mentioned that ASEAN does not want a conflict between China and the United States, and the economic integration between ASEAN and China will continue to deepen.
Will there be a war?
The Chinese participants pointed out that as long as the United States still regards China as a strategic competitor, it will be difficult for Sino-US relations to improve significantly. Many Americans are talking about the most important thing between China and the United States is to avoid war, which shows that the United States has very limited expectations for the bilateral relationship. China rejects the U.S. definition of the bilateral relationship as "competition" because China considers "competition" to be synonymous with the struggle for hegemony, and China has no intention of competing for hegemony.
On the afternoon of October 27, 2023, the School of International Studies and the Institute of Strategic Studies of Peking University jointly held an open forum on "Global Security Governance: Current Status and Prospects".
During the discussion, some foreign participants said that the terms of "new Cold War" and "decoupling" were misleading, and that there could be no "decoupling" between China and the United States. For areas with security risks, the United States can "de-risk" through the "small courtyard and high wall" policy, but there is a trend of expansion of "small courtyards" at present. The United States does not seek to contain China in the same way that it contained the Soviet Union during the Cold War, but only to seek a balance of power;China and the United States are not "destined for war", and China and the United States do not pose a threat to each other's survival. He agrees"Competitive coexistence".to describe the current U.S.-China relationship.
Some Chinese participants pointed out that at present, both China and the United States seem to be limited by their judgment on the future direction of each other's countries. If both China and the United States are convinced that the other country is in decline or on the verge of decline, both sides will act more assertively and inflexibly. Another Chinese participant believedThe essence of Sino-US strategic competition is that the United States is vying for primacy in the international order and international affairsBecause the United States subjectively believes that China's peaceful rise will change the established international order, but this competition over the international order itself will not lead to war between the two countries.
Chinese participants also criticized U.S. politicians for using negative public perceptions of China to justify their hardline stance on China, and it is the narrative of the U.S. elite that has caused the public's perception of China to deteriorate rapidly in just a few years. He further pointed out that from 2016 to 2019, the balance of power between China and the United States has not changed significantly, but the relationship between China and the United States has begun to deteriorate, which cannot be explained by structural factors, and it is necessary to consider the dynamic factor, that is, the perception of each side of the other. Chinese scholars caution that overemphasizing the expectation of war in the Taiwan Strait will not help solve the problem, but will only make it difficult for China to make decisions and for China-US relations.
How to improve relationships
Some Chinese participants held that in recent years, the strategic competition between China and the United States has been a decisive factor affecting the security and stability of the Asia-Pacific region. FirstThe pressure on Asian countries to "choose sides" in the strategic competition between major powers has increased substantially, especially in Northeast Asia. SecondAsia's goal of prioritizing economic interests has given way to great power competition, and there is a clear trend of securitization in the economic field. Third, Asia-Pacific countries have a more negative assessment of the security environment, which has led to a rapid increase in military spending in the Asia-Pacific region over the past decade. Fourth, it is more difficult for countries to cooperate on traditional security issues. The DPRK nuclear issue has a tendency to become "India-Pakistanized," and it is difficult to achieve the goal of denuclearization. FifthThe South Pacific island nation has recently been embroiled in a competition between China and the United States.
Group photo of Chinese and foreign scholars attending the open forum of the 9th Annual Conference of the Beijing Pavilion Dialogue.
In this regard, the Chinese participants put forward several suggestions. Firstto stabilize China-US relations as soon as possible, so that the two sides and regional countries know the prospects, competitive boundaries and scope of cooperation in China-US relations, so as to increase certainty and stability. SecondBoth China and the United States need to support regional countries in independently determining their own foreign policies. ThirdIt is necessary to establish dialogue channels and crisis management mechanisms to prevent the problem of the Northeast from getting out of control. Fourth, China and the United States need to work together to manage the risks associated with the Taiwan issue.
Foreign participants suggested that post-pandemic China should:Reopening to the worldIn particular, we want more young people from foreign countries to come to China to have a look.
A Chinese participant: YesGreat power diplomacyThree recommendations were made. First, large countries should respect small and medium-sized countries, and in addition to providing public goods, solutions, and global initiatives, they should also consider the concerns of small and weak countries. Second, it is an important responsibility of major countries to form a mechanism for reflection and correction of their own diplomacy. Third, major-country diplomacy needs diversity, locality, and "soft power", and more diversified mechanisms and diplomatic channels for social participation should be established.
The participants also discussed the recent sudden deterioration of the situation in Gaza. Some foreign sides believe that the key to solving the problem lies in diplomacy, and that a third party should play an active role, first grasp the balance between the demand for the exchange of hostages and the demand for a ceasefire, and then put forward a series of complete legal proposals for the settlement of the Palestinian-Israeli issue with strong international support, so as to comprehensively resolve the conflict. Since taking office, Israel** has neglected a long-term solution to the question of Palestine. We must firmly reaffirm the concept of peaceful coexistence between Palestine and Israel, but the question is how to mobilize all countries to work together, and China and the United States can cooperate on this point.