In the first trading month of 2024, the market performance is inevitably a little pessimistic, on the one hand, these emotions come from floating losses, and on the other hand, linear extrapolation, subconsciously mapping the market performance in the past period to the future market performance.
From another point of view, from 2021 to 2023, the CSI 300 index will be ** for 3 consecutive years, which is unique in history.
After years of succession, it is very difficult to rebuild confidence. And the layout of the new base at the freezing point of the market requires some courage and courage.
Mean reversion is a more prevalent phenomenon in the market than linear extrapolation. After the bull market of 2019-2020, the market will not "only rise and fall", so after three consecutive years, the market has accumulated many possibilities.
We also counted the data, in the last 10 years, what is the winning rate of new hair below 3000 points**?
Since 2013, the market has changed significantly. In particular, the first issuance market is often "full of voices in high places" and "no one cares about low positions". However, judging from the holding experience of backtesting, it is often the "few people" who buy ** below 3000 points, and it is easy to "laugh last".
According to statistics, since 2013, if you buy active equity products below 3,000 points in the Shanghai Composite Index (wind ordinary ** type + partial stock hybrid type**, a total of 485) and hold them for 1 year, the probability of positive returns after 1 year is as high as 9443%。
Among them, most of these products have a yield of 0%-80% for 1 year, accounting for more than 90%, and a very small number of products will lose money or have a yield of more than 80%.
And if we look back at these developments established below 3000 points, it is almost impossible to have "explosive models" and "Big Macs". Cautious and low-key at the time of issuance, acquaintance with holders at the micro time, deep water flow during operation, a deeper understanding of risks, wait until the market wind rises, and repay the precious trust of investors at the beginning.
Judging from this data backtest, it is true that buying ** also requires some "timing" ability. Below 3000 points, it is also the moment of the low layout.
The willingness to issue active equity new ** at this point must be full of firmness for the national economy and capital market. The new ** issuance at the freezing point needs to invest more energy and more confidence at the bottom of the market in order to grasp better opportunities in a longer-term dimension.
In January this year, Cathay Jinsheng returned (Class A: 019328; Category C: 019329) is being issued. **Manager Hu Song** has 20 years of experience in the industry, 13 years of investment management, is a veteran who has experienced bulls and bears, and has achieved hard-won positive returns in 2023 (Cathay Fortune Wings Blue Chip 2023 yield of 1.).13%）。
At the super trough of market sentiment, veterans issued new bases. If you continue to experience the bull and bear cycle of the market, you will find that it is not "different this time", but "the same every time". Mean reversion will only be late, not absent.
Risk Warning. Views are for informational purposes only and are subject to change in market conditions and do not constitute investment advice or commitment. The market is risky, and investors need to be cautious. Historical performance of other ** does not constitute a guarantee of future performance of this **. Cathay Fortune Wings Blue Chip Value Hybrid **Investment** (Establishment date 2006 09 29, performance benchmark 60% * FTSE China A shares blue chip value 100 + 40% * CSI Total Bond (full price), Hu Song has been managed since 2020 09 25 to present) 2018-2023 first half of the year Benchmark for comparison: -3037%/-10.08%，43.50%/24.69%，57.41%/13.79%，21.35%/-4.19%，-19.25%/-10.62%，10.39%/1.12%。Text: China Tai Jinpeng blue-chip performance data**: Cathay Pacific**, Galaxy**, Haitong**, Wind; The scale data is as of September 30, 2023, and the performance and ranking data are as of November 30, 2023, and the ranking is the fourth quarter of 2023 of relevant institutions. The same kind of Cathay Fortune Wings blue chip similar ranking refers to the Galaxy **partial stock type** (upper limit 95%) (Class A), the average similar refers to the second-level classification of wind investment type - flexible allocation hybrid **, and the same kind of golden years ** pension refers to the second-level classification of wind investment type - **type pension, and the performance of the public offering ** has been reviewed by the custodian bank. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Data**: Regularly reported, data as of June 30, 2023. The performance data has been reviewed by the custodian bank and compiled by Cathay Pacific. China's ** operation time is relatively short, and past performance does not represent the future. Cathay Jinsheng is a hybrid type, and theoretically its expected risk and expected return are higher than those of the money market ** and bond type**, and lower than **type**. When investing in the target of the Hong Kong Stock Connect, it will face the unique risks brought about by the differences in the investment environment, investment target, market system and trading rules under the Hong Kong Stock Connect mechanism. If you need to purchase relevant products, please pay attention to the relevant regulations on investor suitability management, do a good risk assessment in advance, and purchase ** products with the corresponding risk level according to your own risk tolerance. **There are risks and investment should be cautious.