From 2021 to 2023, ** has fallen for three consecutive years.
In 2024, I thought there would be a reversal, but I didn't expect Big A to continue diving at the beginning of the year.
Otherwise, it won't be more exciting and go in the opposite direction.
Investment bigwigs, began to wonder if "the investment experience and framework have failed".
Even Lao Hu can shout out"If I don't cut, the market won't cut me".The big V also completely felt the pain of A-shares.
This round of X City is indeed extremely exciting.
The statistics of x city in the past 20 years are countedMaximum drawdown and duration.
Discover this round of x city in 2021Extremely deceptive,**The smallest decline in history and not the longest (ranked third).
It looks soft and weak, and vulnerable
But the actual damage is very great!
(1) Many ** indices have fallen below their lows
The CSI 300 has fallen below the 2020 low.
The Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) fell to a three-year low.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange did not fall sharply, and it was backed by "medium and special valuation".
The index is actually clearly distortedThis 2800 is no longer the other 2800
The current 2800 points may be more ruthless than the big X city in 2018.
In addition to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, CSI 300, ChiNext
The CSI 500, CSI 1000, Kechuang 50 and other indices are also miserable, and the mid-cap and small-cap indices have basically fallen in an all-round way.
(2) The core track was also mostly broken down
In this round of X city, the core track is the hardest hit area of losses.
The proportion of public offerings** in new energy is greater than 20%.
The proportion of food and beverage holdings is greater than 13%.
The proportion of medical holdings is close to 7%.
Baijiu, known as "sauce technology", has fallen by 39% in three years
Medical care, known as the "perpetual motion machine of rigid needs", has fallen by 56% in three years
New energy, known as the "sea of stars", has fallen by 34% in three years
(3) Celebrities also basically hit the streets
In the case that the index and the industry will not be selected, many people pin their hopes on the top 1% of the managersUnexpectedly, the ** managed by the bigwigs also hit the street in an all-round way.
Lan Lan, the goddess of medical treatment, has lost 49% in three years
China's Warren Buffett "Kunkun, a loss of 46% in three years
Nan Nan, the king of consumption, has lost 41% in three years
Evergreens wake up less, with a loss of 38% in three years
The triple crown champion is a god, with a loss of 28% in three years
White Horse, Value, Growth, Track, Balance, Trend, whatever the style, all lost miserably in this round.
(4) ** The house is also falling
Why is the last round of X market in 2018 not as painful as this round?
Core Reasons:Although ** is falling, the house has not fallen much.
Houses account for up to 70% of the wealth of residents
The big head of wealth is making a profit, and the loss of the small head is not so difficult.
But this round of X market is a double kill of ** and real estate.
In the past two years, in addition to the real estate in the core area, the general decline in the second and third tier and non-core areas is about 20-30%.
If you add mortgage leverage, it hurts to think about it.
(5) The income of other investment products is also **
3-year deposits fell below 2%.
The 3-year Treasury fell below 25%
Yesterday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was cut again
In an era of declining profits, interest rates on risk-free products such as deposits and treasury bonds will continue to fall if nothing else.
As for fixed income such as trusts and bank wealth management, not only are the returns declining, but the risks are also rising.
In addition to ** and houses, other assets are also shrinking sharply.
All kinds of negative things are superimposed, making this round extremely difficult!
So, is there a bottom for A-shares? When will it be in the end?
To be honest, I don't know either.
But in the financial markets, nothing can escape the cycle.
Remember, the core asset that was blown into the sky in the big bull market in 2019?
Liquor, gross profit margin of 80%+, production line, technology, process do not need to be updated, the most perfect industry, the cycle is over, directly collapsed!
Medical, a sustainable industry that no one can escape, rose to the sky, and a wave collapsed!
New energy, a new technology with unlimited imagination, has also collapsed after skyrocketing by 200-300%!!
In the past two years, even the properties that everyone recognizes as "long-term stable profits and no losses" have begun to go down, so,Nothing can go up indefinitely, and no asset can go down indefinitely.
Like Japan, the economy has lost 30 years, and it is about to be expelled from the earth. When no one is optimistic about it, ** is almost a record high.
So,Will A-shares continue to fall? Is there still a bottom?
I don't know.
But in the financial markets, everything is cyclical.