At the end of January 2023, nationwideHogsThe average price has been continuously **, and the pig price in many areas has rushed to 18 yuan kg. For me, it's not a surprise, because a few months ago I dissected the fourth quarter in detail andChinese New Yearbefore the pig price trend and cash out these analyses one by one. However, it is necessary to be vigilant that the stability of the current high pig price is not reliable, and we must be wary of two deep pits.
January 30, NationalHogsThe average price is 1553 yuan kg, 012 yuan kg. This is since January 21 1406 yuan kilogram, the national pig price for nine consecutive weeks**. The price of pigs in Shandong, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places has rushed to the range of 18 yuan kilograms, and farmers have basically gotten rid of losses. The main reason for the current pig price is that the contradiction between supply and demand has changed fundamentally. First of all, the number of fertile sows has been decreasing since the beginning of 2023, which is reflected:Hogs** October-November is the peak of slaughter, and it is a normal trend to gradually decrease since December. Secondly,Chinese New YearAs the last peak period of the year, the banquet continued, which led to the recovery of pig prices. Those of you who may have read our content are no strangers to the above analysis, and I discussed these issues in detail in the live broadcasts and articles in July and October, but not many people believed me at the time. Looking to the future,HogsThe contradiction between supply and demand will gradually improve, but the overall space is not large, and we need to be wary of two deep pits.
The first big pit isPigletsSoaring. Since January,PigletsThe momentum is more ferocious than the pig price. According to the latest survey data, as of January 29, the current 7 kgPigletsIn the mainstream market, the range is 350-450 yuan, and some high-level products are even close to 500 yuan. PigletsOn the one hand, as the production capacity of fertile sows falls back to normal levels, people are expected to pick up in 2024; On the other hand, in the early stage, Central China, East China, North China and other places were seriously affected by pig diseases, and they needed to purchase high-quality products from the southPiglets, which led to *** plusChinese New YearApproaching,PigletsLimited trading hours have also accelerated the recovery of **. At the moment,Piglets**It is still within the acceptable range, but if you continue to speculate and raise the ** level, farmers should be vigilant and not blindly buy because of the expectation of the market outlookPiglets。On the one hand, the current epidemic situation is still complicated, and outsourcing is outsourcedPigletsThe stakes are enormous; On the other hand, the room for pig prices to recover in 2024 is limited, and whether the specific ** can rebound to which range remains to be operated by the national group farm from February to May. Judging by 2023,PigletsThe business is indeed much better than that of fat pigs, many morePigletsThe market has been profitable since the first half of the year. In addition, data monitoring showed that the average weekly loss of self-breeding this week was 4341 yuan, outsourcedPigletsThe average weekly loss of farming was 5341 yuan. NowPigletsThe turnaround is also faster than that of fat pigs, so we need to be aware of one thing whenPiglets**When the price is greatly reduced, the purchase of fattening does not necessarily lose, but whenPigletsWhen it's too high and out of the norm, it's easy to fall into the trap. At the end of the day, the most important factor affecting pig prices is supply and demand, and the impactPigletsThe most important factors are expectations and emotions.
The second pit is behind this round of pig prices. Farmers shouldn't just stare atChinese New YearGetting closer and closer, and desperately want to press the fence and wait for high pig prices, because of the countryHogs** still exceeds demand, and the peak period for consumers to prepare New Year's goods and hold banquets will also end this week, and the pressure on pig prices is not small. MoreoverChinese New YearAfter that, the demand for pork will decline rapidly, and the price of pigs is the norm, so don't be too "reluctant to sell", stabilize cash flow, and have a good year is the most important thing, only in this way can next year's production be better developed.
In terms of sows, as of December 2023, the countryHogsThe herd has fallen to 41.42 million heads, which gives some confidence. Based on the latest supply-demand comparison, we can look at the overall trend in 2024. AgricultureAccording to data released by the Ministry of Rural Affairs, from January to December 2023, above the scaleHogsThe slaughter volume of designated slaughtering enterprises reached 343.71 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 204%；The per capita pork consumption of households is 305 kg per person, an increase of 13 percent year-on-year2%。Through comparison, it can be seen that in 2023, our countryHogsThe growth in slaughter far outpaced the increase in consumption, with a difference of nearly 7 percentage points. This suggests that relative toHogsIn terms of production capacity, it is much more difficult to increase the consumption of national ** meat, andHogs**With a large margin.
In 2024, our farmers will for:Hogs** is expected to gradually come down, thereby reducing the pressure on slaughter, which helps to stabilize pig prices. However, we can't ignore it eitherSupply and demandchanges. With the reduction of the sow herd in 2023 and the input of new sows in early 2024,HogsProduction capacity is expected to rebound. At the same time, the growth of pork consumption demand also needs a corresponding time, and it cannot immediately keep up with the increase in **. Therefore, the room for pig prices to recover in 2024 is relatively limited.
In general,Chinese New YearThe former pig price ** is driven by the improvement of the contradiction between supply and demand, butPiglets** Soaring andChinese New YearAfter the pig price** are the two deep pits that we need to be wary of. To operate steadily, do not be confused by the short-term, more importantly, to reasonably plan production, ensure cash flow and profits, and do a good job in responding to pig price fluctuations. In 2024HogsSupply and demand trends will continue to adjust, and we need to make decisions based on the situation and remain sensitive and flexible to the market.