High-quality author list Yesterday, the market appeared again, when the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2800 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index reached 1 today95%。Many of my friends around me began to feel anxious and considered whether to cut the meat at a stop-loss. I have 28 years of investment experience in **, and I have really seen a lot of ups and downs, and I have experienced a bear market that is more difficult and scary than it is now. The current ** has long been commonplace for me. The current volatility risk is originally the risk that we investors should bear. Everything in the world has to pay a price, and if you want to get hundreds of thousands or millions of benefits, you must also bear the corresponding risk price. You can't invest well without being prepared for this.
I am now firmly holding the China Merchants CSI Liquor Index A, and I am ready to start a small increase in positions this month and increase my positions heavily in March. I think the liquor sector is a rare high-quality industry sector in the A** field. The liquor industry has a variety of excellent qualities such as cultural attributes, repetitive consumption attributes, and addiction attributes, and is an industry that is worth investing in.
Therefore, in the future, I will continue to increase my position in the liquor index**. Optimistic about liquor, optimistic about the future development of China's consumer industry. In the environment of the country's continuous stimulation of consumption, the consumer industry will definitely recover as soon as possible, and its future performance will inevitably rise. Investing belongs to those who are patient and have a vision. Hold firmly, live up to the years.
Someone commented on my article and said, "You watch too much every day, and the result is **every day**."
I responded: "What I do every day is long-term bullishness, which means.
Three, more than five years or even more than ten years of ** bullish. I never do short-term **, I think short-term ** essence is not good**. So, I never said the ups and downs of tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, the day after tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow. What I mean by "bullish" and the short-term ups and downs you focus on are fundamentally different things. ”
Many people always like to use the current trend to verify the right or wrong judgment of a person. In fact, this is the wrong criterion at all. The only person who can often judge the accurate trend of the next few days is "God", and those who do short-term *** and believe in short-term *** are extremely stupid people.
It's not easy for our real-world investors to see the general direction accurately. What I'm doing now is to predict the general direction and the big area. Never do those stupid, meaningless short-term *** Yesterday someone asked: "How many points can you fall under the ** with technical analysis." ”
I was unceremoniously refused. I replied, "I don't have the skills." Technical analysis also has never had the ability to be precise. If you think that technical analysis can be accurate***, it means that you don't know much about technical analysis either. ”
If I know how many points ** can fall to stop falling, will I continue to increase my position at 3000 points, 2900 points, 2800 points, and more than 2700 points? My investment behavior has shown that I don't know exactly how much ** can fall. I only know that there is no mistake in the general direction of adding positions below 3000 points, and below 3000 points is almost 100% certain in the long run.
Some friends suspect that I am now very anxious about my heavy position. Really, I'm not anxious at all. My life perception is that nothing in this world is set in stone. One of the hottest hand-pulled noodle restaurants in our city was just an ordinary outdoor toilet 30 years ago.
Just as, it can't be forever, and it can't be forever. If you are anxious about the current ups and downs, then I can only say bluntly that your pattern is not big. When you put your eyes on ten or twenty years later, when you focus on work, family, and life, you will find that this little thing in ** is really not a big deal. When you look back on today's ** ten years later, you will find that the ** of the past is really dreamy.
Many people have now been so frightened that they lose their minds and don't know it. I'm going to tell them today how to judge if they've lost their minds at the moment
Don't think about things with a high probability, and drill the so-called "horns" that happen with a small probability. This is the loss of rationality.
For example, some people asked, "What will Japan do if it loses 20 years in the future, just like Japan?" What if there is a war in the future? What happens if it drops to 2000? Wait a minute. ”
I would like to ask these people, "Is there a high probability that something like Japan will happen in Japan, or is there a high probability that it will not happen?" Is there a high probability of a war in the future or no war? Is there a high probability of falling to 2000 points in the future, or is there a high probability of falling to 3000 points or more than 4000 points? Why don't we bet on the high probability of happening, and pursue the small probability every day?
If we think that the probability is small, we must also pay close attention. So do we not want to eat, because there is a possibility of choking, do we not want to walk, there is a probability of traffic accidents. This brings us to the question of how to properly deal with these small but extremely harmful events in investment.
Here's what I've learned about investing:
1. Do a good job of asset allocation in advance. As I said earlier, I'm not anxious about the big drop at all, because I not only bet on what happens with a high probability, but I also have a good plan in advance for what happens with a small probability.
For example, I have a large amount of fixed deposits, insurance, bonds** and real estate at home. In this way, even if there is a major risk event that can only happen with a small probability, it will not have much impact on my daily life.
2. Deeply aware of the inherent risk of loss in investment, and when everything is done, there will be no guilt and no worries in your heart.
I bet on what happens with a high probability and don't forget to deal with what happens with a small probability. I prepared everything in advance. The investment has been taken to the extreme. For things in people, things in heaven, what else do I have to be anxious about?