Ming-Chi Kuo, a well-known analyst at Tianfeng International, recently published an article on the Medium platform, revealing the latest ** about Apple's future mobile phone shipments. According to the results of his **chain survey, Apple has lowered its shipment estimate of key semiconductor components for iPhones in 2024, and expects shipments to decrease to about 200 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15%. This data means that Apple is likely to face the largest recession among the world's major mobile phone brands.
Ming-Chi Kuo further noted that the iPhone 15 series and the upcoming iPhone 16 series will be launched in the first place this year.
Shipments in the first and second quarters are expected to decline by 10-15% year-on-year. This declining trend is largely attributed to the "structural challenges" that the iPhone is facing. There are two main aspects: first, the high-end mobile phone market is ushering in new design paradigms, such as the rise of AI (generative AI) phones and folding phones; Second, shipments in the Chinese market continued to decline, mainly affected by factors such as Huawei's return and folding mobile phones becoming the first choice for high-end users to replace their phones.
Apple's weekly shipments have seen a 30-40% year-over-year decline in the past few weeks, and this trend is expected to continue. Ming-Chi Kuo also talked about the outlook for future iPhone models, saying that Apple will not be able to launch new models with "big changes in design" until 2025 at the earliest, and release a more comprehensive and differentiated generative AI ecosystem or application. Until then, the above-mentioned structural challenges may adversely affect the shipment momentum and ecosystem growth of the iPhone.
In addition, it is understood that recently foreign media reported that Apple is exploring the introduction of a special photo button in the iPhone 16 series. The button has a mechanical design, but the surface supports touch function, which can be used to zoom in and reduce the focal length. At the same time, the button responds to different pressure changes, allowing the user to focus on the press and the shutter to take a photo when the press is heavy. This innovative design is expected to bring a more convenient and efficient photo experience to the iPhone.