Recently, Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun Erdeni said in an interview with the Washington Post that it is necessary to arrange a summit meeting with China and Russia to discuss cooperation projects between the three countries, including railway plans and economic corridors, and the most important thing is how to go along the route of the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline.
Oyun Erdeni also told the Washington Post that Mongolia is conducting a feasibility study to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative. It sounds like Mongolia has seen the situation and found the right path for development.
Mongolia has only two neighbors, China and Russia. In recent years, China-Russia relations have developed well, especially after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, China has not heeded the call of the United States and imposed economic sanctions and blockades on Russia. As a result, the favorable opinion of various circles in Russia toward China has risen rapidly, and many strategic cooperation between the two countries has also been carried out smoothly.
In this way, Mongolia does not seem to need to make multiple choice questions, directly join the Sino-Russian strategic cooperation, and play its role as a country of agricultural and animal husbandry products, minerals and logistics channels. In fact, China and Russia are absolutely happy for Mongolia to play such a role.
China has proposed that the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor is part of the Belt and Road Initiative, hoping to strengthen regional infrastructure connectivity, investment flows, and more. Mongolia said in November 2023 that it was building seven "land ports" and was preparing to expand its presence with China and Russia.
Oyun Erdeni also said that China-Mongolia relations are "at the best level in history" and that the two sides are developing a comprehensive strategic partnership. In 2023, Mongolia's exports of goods to China, mainly coal, copper and other mineral products, increased by 409% to $13.1 billion.
At the same time, Mongolia imported $3.5 billion worth of Chinese goods, up 25% year-on-year. Mongolia has also become one of the few countries with a surplus with China.
Therefore, the benefits of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor for Mongolia are not a long-term vision, but a present tense. Oyun Erdeni hopes to organize a summit and even invites Chinese leaders to visit Mongolia, which is in Mongolia's interests.
However, China-Mongolia relations are not so simple. We are well aware that Mongolia, while strengthening relations with China and Russia, has not rejected the United States. Since 2003, Mongolia has launched a joint exercise with the United States, Khan Exploration.
Although the exercise was extended to a multinational exercise and China was invited to participate, the existence of this exercise was unnecessary from any angle. Its only value is to give the United States a new grip to counterbalance China.
Cooperation between Mongolia and the United States goes beyond military exercises. On January 22, the U.S. Embassy in Mongolia also triumphantly announced that over the past 20 years, the United States has funded a number of Mongolian projects, including investment 4., through the so-called "Millennium Challenge Cooperation."$6.2 billion tap water project. During Oyun Erdeni's visit to the United States in August 2023, a number of cooperation agreements were also signed, including direct flights between the two countries and rare earths**, among others.
This makes people have great doubts about Mongolia's sincerity in developing relations with China. Mongolia and the United States do not share any land, water or air borders. In the "Khan Exploration" exercise, the US military was in transit over northeastern China. Ignoring the feelings of China and Russia, Mongolia has conducted joint exercises with the US military to deepen US-Mongolian relations, obviously intending to keep a back hand between China, Russia, and Mongolia.
It is not surprising that Mongolia, out of its own national interests, has such caution. But in that case, how can China and Russia not leave Mongolia behind? On the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline project, if this pipeline is allowed to pass through Mongolia, it is equivalent to handing over the throat to Mongolia.
This pipeline will transport 50 billion cubic meters of Russian natural gas to China every year, and if under certain extreme circumstances, a political force that is extremely inclined to the United States comes to power in Mongolia and brazenly cuts off the pipeline, even if it threatens to cut the pipeline, it will be a great risk for China and Russia. Especially during the heating season in northern China, such a risk is even more unacceptable.
The Sword Project With the virtues of the United States, there is absolutely no scruple in doing such a thing. The blowing up of the Nord Stream pipelines in Europe is obviously instigated by the US forces, and it may even be directly carried out by the US military. In the event of such a situation in the future, China and Russia will either agree to Mongolia's demands or be forced to use force to change Mongolia's political landscape. No matter what you do, it's very passive.
Therefore, if Mongolia wants to participate in the construction of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor, it needs to show greater political sincerity. If you step on two boats, you may not be trusted. Neither China nor Russia will allow the United States to drive a nail in the back.