Text|Kingfisher Capital.
The cross-border ETF of "Public Offering First Brother" frequently publishes risk warnings.
At present, on the map of China's public offering, there is only one institution whose non-cargo scale has climbed by one trillion yuan, and that is E Fund.
This institution has given birth to star managers such as Zhang Kun, Xiao Nan, and Zhang Qinghua, but in the past three years, their reputation has been like a yellow flower, and the myth is long gone.
When E Fund seemed to "die down", an ETF that invests in U.S. stocks suddenly changed, and the posture of scrambling for funds can be described as "you fight for me".
The key is that this ETF has been established for less than 3 months, and there was no rush to buy at the time of issuance, so why did it suddenly usher in a lively subscription at the beginning of 2024?
Just last week, the Shanghai Stock Exchange focused on monitoring E Fund MSCI US 50 ETF and other high-premium ETFs, and the risks that investors were not aware of are approaching step by step.
Irrational speculation in U.S. stocks
Since January 23, 2024, a product named "E Fund MSCI US 50 ETF" has issued a number of premium risk warning announcements.
As of January 29, a total of 6 above-mentioned reminder announcements have been issued.
Once disclosed, this kind of announcement indicating the risk of premium indicates that the public offering manager has found that some investors have irrational investment behaviors through monitoring.
The announcement pointed out that the secondary market trading of the above-mentioned ETFs is significantly higher than the share reference net value (IOPV). Investors are hereby reminded to pay attention to the risk of premium in secondary market trading**, and if they invest blindly, they may suffer significant losses.
In addition, the ETF announcement has successively disclosed premium data including: 46%。
E Fund MSCI U.S. 50 ETF" is a "solid-colored" U.S. stock**, which belongs to QDII** (which can be understood as a cross-border product invested in markets outside the mainland).
The ETF listing and trading announcement disclosed that the top 10** and depositary receipt investments include Apple, Microsoft, Google's parent company Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta, Tesla, UnitedHealth, Berkshire Hathaway, etc., as shown in the figure below
The MSCI US 50 Index is equivalent to the US stock ** blue-chip core asset index, which is more focused than the common S&P 500 index and NASDAQ 100 index. In A-shares, it is similar to the Shanghai 50 Index.
Why chase cross-border investment?
The ETF was launched on November 10, 2023 with an initial size of 23.3 billion yuan.
Judging from the issuance results, this scale is far less than the fundraising standard of the most popular models, and it usually takes billions of yuan or tens of billions of yuan to reach the explosions.
In addition, this is an exchange transaction with a public offering institution as the manager, which requires the people to open an account and trade like buying and selling.
The premium risk of E Fund's above-mentioned ETFs appeared on a number of Nikkei index ETFs during the same period, that is, cross-border ** ETFs became "the target of public criticism".
This is related to the unsatisfactory performance of A-shares, so some investors have begun to look for other investment directions.
First, many low- and medium-risk interest rate bonds and credit bonds have performed well in the past two years, but their yields are far inferior to returns, so they naturally cannot attract individual investors.
Second, many ** risk appetite is very high, always pay attention to the "can rise" ** varieties, just like a few years ago flocked to liquor**, new energy vehicles**.
Third, some people have changed their way of thinking, and they can't make money from A-shares and H-shares, and they have begun to look at other geographical regions, superimposed on the cross-border supply of domestic public offerings, which are limited to broad-based index products in the United States and Japan.
The above three points have become important reasons for investors to participate in cross-border ETF operations.
Be wary of trading risks
Once the ETF has a higher premium, it has indicated that some investors have chased the rise.
Theoretically, ETF trading is determined by the supply and demand in the secondary market, and if the bullish sentiment of the people rises, the number of people who sell ETFs will increase, and the number of people who sell ETFs will decrease.
In this case, the ETF** presents a premium above the **net value, that is, the secondary market price is greater than the **net value.
Once the demand for this variety of ETF from the main capital in the market declines, ETF trading may be rapid, and many investors who join later will become leeks.
In other words, the people who participate in the high point with ** will encounter a tragedy similar to the "pig killing plate".
On January 29, the "E Fund MSCI US 50 ETF" was limited to a down**. At that time, the investors who chased the price during the premium period must have regretted that their intestines were green.
There is another important risk investor that is easy to overlook.
A number of cross-border ETFs with recent premiums are not large, ranging from tens of millions to hundreds of millions of yuan.
In other words, ETF liquidity is as important as trading liquidity, otherwise it can only be like the scene of A-shares in 2015 - seeing ** falling every day, but shareholders are at a loss and can only wait until "falling in place".
In fact, cross-border ETFs involve too many risks, in addition to the above-mentioned trading mechanism levels, there are also overseas market investment risks, liquidity risks, exchange rate risks, and foreign exchange quota insufficiency risks.
Therefore, it is necessary to remind the people to wake up, not to invest blindly, and to invest before understanding it.
This article is an original article by Kingfisher Capital, please do not be authorized **.