Cinda ** shares *** Ma Zheng recently conducted research on Bailong Chuangyuan and released a research report "Performance to a new high, grasp multiple opportunities", this report gives a ** rating to Bailong Chuangyuan, the current stock price is 2624 yuan.
Bailong Chuangyuan (605016).
Event: The company announced its 2023 performance report. In 2023, the company will achieve revenue of 86.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +2028%；Achieved net profit attributable to the parent company of 19.3 billion yuan, +2797%；Realize the net profit of 17.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of +2451%。Among them, the company achieved revenue of 2 in 23Q41.4 billion yuan, +25 year-on-year03%；The net profit attributable to the parent company was 51.65 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of +5742%；The net profit deducted from the non-attributable parent company was 42.2 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of +2757%。
Comments: Q4 revenue grew steadily, and profits hit a record high. In 23Q4, the company's revenue continued to grow year-on-year, and on the demand side, the company's domestic and foreign customer demand growth led to an increase in the company's product sales; On the supply side, the company's "annual output of 20,000 tons of functional sugar drying project" will be put into operation in April 2023, and the release of production capacity will drive an increase in sales and revenue. On the profit side, the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter hit a record high, of which the growth rate of net profit not attributable to the parent company and the net profit attributable to the parent company were higher than the revenue growth rate.
The fund-raising project was put into operation in May 24, and the Thailand project continued to advance, and sustained growth in the short and medium term can be expected. According to the company's announcement, the "annual output of 30,000 tons of soluble dietary fiber project" is planned to start in May 2024, and we expect the project to be an important driving force for performance growth in 24. At the same time, the Thailand production and construction base project announced in 23Q3 has made new progress. On November 17, 2023, the company announced that it had completed the domestic registration and Thai registration procedures, marking that the Thailand project has officially entered the practical operation stage and is expected to provide a solid foundation for the growth of the company's performance in the medium term.
R&D projects continue to expand, and the reserve of new products is expected to boost the company to a higher level in the long run. According to the information published by the Dezhou Environmental Science Research Institute, the company is applying for an environmental impact assessment of the annual output of 9,000 tons of breast milk oligosaccharide co-production taganese project. The construction scale of the project is an annual output of 6,000 tons of breast milk oligosaccharides and 3,000 tons of tagose. HMO is a naturally occurring prebiotic in breast milk that plays a vital role in the development and health of infants and young children. In the second half of 2023, the National Health Commission approved for the first time two monomers in HMOs as nutritional fortifiers, allowing them to be added to infant formula. Because it is the third largest ingredient in breast milk after lactose and fat, accounting for 8% of the composition of breast milk, the potential market space may exceed 10 billion yuan. Tagosse is a new type of natural sugar substitute with excellent performance, which has been approved as a new food raw material in China in 2014, and the sweetness is 0 of sucrose92 times, the Maillard reaction can occur, but because of its high production cost, the ton price has been maintained at more than 200 yuan kg for a long time, and the supply is scarce. If the project is successfully implemented, it is expected to further boost the company's long-term performance.
Earnings** & Investment Rating: Continued growth and multiple opportunities. After the company achieved a net profit of 50 million yuan in a single quarter for the first time in 23Q3, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 23Q4 reached a new high, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5742%。In May 2024, the company's "annual output of 30,000 tons of soluble dietary fiber project" is expected to be put into production, and the nearer and closer allulose approval is expected, and the company's short-term performance growth is expected to continue. In the medium and long term, the planning and construction of the Thailand project and the landing of new products in reserve are expected to further boost the company's performance. We expect the company's 2023-2025 EPS to be 078/1.21/1.69 yuan, maintaining the company's "** rating."
Risk factors: the production progress is less than expected, the progress of Thailand's investment in the construction of a functional sugar production base is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensifying.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the CITIC ** Midsummer research team has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the past three years is as high as 886%, and its **2023 attributable net profit is 20.2 billion, the **pe converted according to the current price is 3228。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 6 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with ** rating 5 and 1 overweight rating; The average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 335。
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