Huajin ** shares *** Fang Wenqian recently conducted research on Thundersoft and released a research report "In-depth Report: Riding the East Wind of AI on the End Side, Opening a New Round of Growth Curve", this report gives a ** rating to Thundertech, and the current stock price is 8006 yuan.
Thundersoft (300496).
Key takeaways. The AI model empowers and superimposes the high prosperity of smart cars to drive the company's rapid growth. On the one hand, the technical iteration of the AI model not only gives rise to new requirements for the adaptation of AI chips and underlying software for smartphones, but also improves the added value of intelligent IoT consumer-grade module products and industry-side integrated solutionsOn the other hand, the launch of Huawei's models and the establishment of a new intelligent driving company have accelerated the process of automotive intelligence, and the mass production of independent joint venture brand car companies has accelerated, especially intelligent driving will penetrate rapidly next year, and the company is expected to open the intelligent driving market with the help of Qualcomm chips and contribute to the new performance increment of intelligent vehicles. Specifically:
Intelligent software: 1) high-end market: the development of AIPHONE brings new replacement needs, mobile phone AI chip iteration The update of the operating system The increase in functional modules has led to an increase in the complexity of software development, and part of the development of the underlying general software is usually handed over to third-party software vendors. Sony and other mobile phone terminal manufacturers, therefore, under the wave of AIPHONE development, the company will gradually expand the business volume of high-end models;2) Low-end market: ODM IDH manufacturers originally only cooperated with the company in high-end models, but in order to build the competitiveness of high-end brands, they now hand over the software design and other aspects of low-end models to the company to participate, bringing new development increments of underlying software. In the future, the company will further expand the volume of intelligent software business under the development of AIPHONE and the reform of the division of labor and cooperation mode of the mobile phone industry chain, and maintain a growth rate of 15%-20%.
Smart cars: 1) Intelligent cockpit: The increase in the "volume" of the company's cockpit products mainly comes from the increase in the market share of Qualcomm cockpit chips and the software development demand brought about by the iteration of the next-generation 8295 chip, and the increase in "price" mainly comes from the increase in the demand for complex software development brought about by the increase in cockpit functional modules, and the compound growth rate is expected to be about 35% in the next three years2) Intelligent driving: the company's intelligent driving business is in its infancy, according to the mass production progress of independent joint venture brand models and the maturity of Qualcomm intelligent driving chip products, the company's domain controller products are expected to complete mass production in 25 years, and in the future, the large-scale mass production of related domain control products will be driven by the continuous penetration of Qualcomm intelligent driving chips, and it is estimated that the revenue of domain controller hardware products will achieve about 500 million in 2025 according to the neutral assumption.
Intelligent Internet of Things: 1) Consumer side: The company's consumer side Internet of Things business is expected to benefit from the prosperity of the XR industry and the development of large models + robots. On the one hand, the launch of Apple's MR headset is expected to open up new growth opportunities in the XR market, and the company is also developing MR mixed reality solutions based on Qualcomm Gen2's color perspectiveOn the other hand, the company actively deploys industrial robots, and has launched three robots combined with large models, and at the same time established Xiaowu Intelligence to focus on the research and development of industrial robots. 2) Industry side: The company has created an integrated solution of device-edge-cloud based on edge computing box, IoHarbor device management platform and ModelFarm low-**AI development platform to enhance the added value of IoT business software. In the long run, with the global expansion advantage of Qualcomm chip platform and the empowerment of device-side AI, as well as the accelerated promotion of edge computing products, the company's Internet of Things business will maintain a growth of about 20%-30%.
The RUBIK model will empower the company's three major businesses and enhance the added value of software. Among them, 1) intelligent software: The deployment of generative AI on the device side can effectively improve the efficient and personalized perception experience on the one hand, and effectively reduce labor costs and improve the profit margin of project development on the other hand2) Intelligent vehicles: The application of large models will further improve the interaction ability of the cockpit environment, as well as the development efficiency of Kanzi kit, and will be packaged in the form of large model + vehicle operating system scheme in the future, and the added value of software developed by the project is expected to be further increased3) Intelligent Internet of Things: The company has applied large models to intelligent handling robots, forklift robots, composite robots and other products, realizing autonomous functions such as autonomous navigation, target recognition, and semantic understanding. At the same time, the company has launched end-side AI large model solution products in terminal products such as XR and PC, continuously expanding the value boundary of intelligent Internet of Things.
Investment suggestion: The device-side AI model catalyzes the increase in the added value of smartphones and IoT terminal software, and the downstream demand is picking up, and we are actively optimistic about the increase in the value of terminal-related business products brought by the company's RUBIK model. We expect the company to achieve revenue of 5739/72.27/95.1 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 758/9.84/13.2 billion yuan, giving the company a "**A (maintenance)" rating.
Risk warning: competition in the smart software, smart car, and smart Internet of Things industries is intensifying;The implementation of relevant policies in the intelligent automotive industry is less than expected;Autonomous driving products are not advancing as expected;The implementation of large-scale model technology is not as expected;The downstream customer demand of the Internet of Things is less than expected.
*According to the calculation of the research report data released in the past three years, the research team of Wu Zupeng of GF has conducted in-depth research on the stock, and the average accuracy of the past three years is as high as 8645%, and its ** attributable net profit in 2023 is a profit of 78.7 billion, and the **PE converted according to the current price is 4674。
The latest profit** breakdown is as follows:
A total of 25 institutions have rated the stock in the last 90 days, with 23 ** ratings and 2 overweight ratingsThe average institutional price target over the last 90 days is 9366。
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