**Stabilized, the "private equity witch" is here to remind the risk again!
Li Bei of Banxia Investment can be described as a unique "landscape" in the private equity industry, she can always speak at the moment of hesitation in the market, and her influence is no less than that of investing in "big V" (opinion leaders).
Li Bei's vocal frequency and language style greatly exceed the "average" of the ** manager group, and also attract the attention of many investors and even regard her remarks as a weather vane.
However, since the second half of 2023, many of Li Bei's judgments have been "wrong" by the market.
The latest public information is that Li Bei distributed a document at 11:20 p.m. on February 23, reminding investors to be wary of the risks of small and micro cap stocks (chart below).
At the opening of the A** market in the afternoon, small and micro cap stocks quickly resumed their upward trend after falling back for a period in the afternoon, and the small cap index showed a large ** at the end of the session. With the trend of solid "scolding" Li Bei's speech.
Who will have the last laugh in the end?
What is the logic of Li Bei's article?
In her article, she said: The turning point where this round of small and micro disk stampede came to an end was on February 8, when the mysterious funds were significantly **CSI 2000 ETF, up to 7 billion in a single day, opening up an escape channel for the comrades who suffered in the fire. And in recent days, "the mysterious funds have been retreating continuously after completing the disaster relief mission." ”
She emphatically reminded that (since) the mysterious funds have been continuously retreating, but the comrades who have fled the fire are returning to the fire one after another to reap excess gains.
She suggested that investors who turn back to the ** small and micro cap index "please review the important principles of fire house escape":
If you have escaped from the fire, do not return.
In fact, Li Bei "has words in her words" - she sings a lot!
On the surface, she emphasized that "small micro disks are small, expensive and garbage", "not suitable as a carrier for long-term investment, but suitable as a tool for cutting leeks". But at a deeper level, I want to "make up for it" for the previous singing.
Li Bei's latest article outputs the following "operation guide":It is recommended that the small-cap index increase and the market-wide stock selection be replaced with a 300 index increase, and it is recommended that the quantitative peers I communicate with change the ** index increase.
Since the fourth quarter of last year, Li Bei has repeatedly sung about the bottom opportunity of the CSI 300 and other ** stock indexes.
In other words, her diss small and micro cap stocks this time is more about the "history" of her previous longs to find out the legitimacy.
In fact, there are not many records of Li Bei's speeches since the second half of last year that have been subsequently verified (as of February 23).
According to the private placement network, Banxia Macro's representative hedging products had negative returns for the year (as of February 8), three percentage points behind the CSI 300 Index in the same period.
Li Bei said to the holder in early February:The products managed significantly reduced their positions in equity assets in mid-January, and retained the high dividends of the defensive class and the 300 index class.
At the same time, she particularly emphasized that ".Fortunately, it escaped the more tragic ** of the latest week".
In the short term, this method works. In the above-mentioned products, from January 19 to February 2, when the index drawdown is the fastest, the net value drawdown is "only" one point. In the same period, many quantitative private placements suffered a "critical hit" of more than 10 points.
However, in the last week before the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon (February 5-February 8) when the market **, the net value of the product did not keep up with the CSI 300 Index and CSI 1000 Index in the same period, and the two indexes rose respectively. 15%。
Obviously, Li Bei stepped into the air!
Historically, Li Bei once had a relatively accurate prediction view. However, in the past year of "high-frequency" speeches, her accuracy rate has decreased significantly.
At the end of July 2023, she posted an article "Blue Chip Slow Bull Rises", in which she continuously increased her equity within a month, mainly focusing on midstream and downstream ** stocks, of which the low volatility** equity net ** has been greater than 60%, and the high volatility** has been greater than 100%.
But looking back, the time point of adding positions at that time may have been the stage high of A-shares, and then it fell all the way.
* Falling to the end of September, Li Bei issued a series of articles during the ** week holiday, emphasizing that the US dollar ushered in the twilight and RMB assets ushered in the starting point of the big bull market.
However, the market did not go as Li Bei wished, and the two ** all failed.
At the end of December last year, Li Bei issued an article entitled "Forced Short", which received 100,000+ views, and she was quite confident in the "prediction", believing that the longs of the public and private equity peers were not well prepared.
Since then, she has participated in a number of forums in a row, constantly outputting remarks on the starting point of the bull market for RMB assets, and then the market index will continue to decline in January 2024, triggering a change in market sentiment.
Surprisingly, Li Bei revealed at the end of January that he had reduced his position in the industry and pointed out that he had made the mistake of winning quickly and needed to be defensive.
For investors, where do they go from here? ··
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