1. At present, some steel companies lowered scrap steel ** over the weekend, and the market fear of falling is spreadingHowever, at present, the demand for winter storage of steel mills is still there, and there is no possibility of a sharp decline
2. The short-term iron ore market supply and demand decrease, butWith the end of the year-end overhaul, steel mills are still expected to resume productionCombined with the macro positive situation of PSL restart at the end of the year, the recent mining price has maintained a strong ** pattern.
This week, the output of rebar declined, and the inventory continued to accumulate, of which the warehouse decreased and the social warehouse increased. Recently, steel has entered the off-season accumulation stage, and the market is more cautious due to the weakening demand, but the decline in hot metal production has eased the pressure, and the pace of accumulation of storage under low output is slow.
Iron ore** slipped for the third straight session as the market showed signs of weakening seasonal demand in winter. Singapore Iron Ore **once**13%。Since the beginning of the year, the raw material for this steelmaking has been. Iron ore** is slowly increasing amid sluggish demand, with daily shipments from Brazil reaching 2 million tonnes in December, up from 1.5 million tonnes a year earlier. Port inventories rose for the seventh week in a row. As of press time, Singapore iron ore ***11% to US$137 per tonne, Dalian iron ore **main contract** about 1%.
Currently with the Federal ReserveDropInterest rate delay, dollar index, negative commodities**, the domestic ** market also resonatesAt the same time, the winter storage of raw materials purchased by steel enterprises has come to an end, and the cost support of iron ore and bifocal has weakenedSteel mills have successively introduced winter storage policies, and the factory has continued to declineWhat is the trend of steel in the later period?Read on to ......
The spot transaction of steel is low, maintaining weak and stable operation, superimposing the weak atmosphere of the commodity market, the futures price fell slightly, the main thread closed at 3943 points, and the main force of hot coil was 4049 yuan ton.
Hefei, Nanchang, Changsha, Wuhan, Beijing, Taiyuan, Chongqing, Xi'an and a few other markets of rebar *** 10-20 yuan tons, most of the market stable operation.
Macro:The Ministry of Commerce requires the continuous expansion of consumption and the improvement of the market and circulation systemThe three departments of the state issued the "Opinions on Supporting Guangzhou Nansha to Relax Market Access and Strengthen the Reform of the Regulatory System".Fed's Bostic expects to cut rates twice this year, with the first rate cut in the third quarter.
Industry:Rio Tinto will launch the world's largest mining project, the Simandou iron ore mine, this year.
Recently, the performance of raw fuel** is weak, and steel mills are more cautious in procurement, and most of them have a wait-and-see attitude. The trading volume of the steel market in the off-season is flat, and the willingness of merchants to store in winter is not strong, and the operation is mainly based on price reduction. In the short term, the supply and demand of the steel market are weak, the cost support is slightly loosened, and the steel price may be weak and narrow.
From January 9thBuilding materials12 out of 24 marketsfalls10-20 yuan ton of rebar 20mmHRB400E average **4020 yuan ton, compared with the previous trading day**falls15 yuan ton;
Hot rolls8 out of 24 marketsfalls10-20 yuan ton, 4The average of 75 hot-rolled coils was 4084 yuan tons, compared with the previous trading dayfalls9 yuan ton;
Medium and heavy plates5 out of 23 marketsfalls10-20 yuan ton, 14-20mm ordinary medium plate average **4121 yuan ton, compared with the previous trading day**falls12 yuan ton.
On January 9, the main force of black rebarfalls18, closed at 3943,fallsWidth 045%；Hot coil workhorsefalls13, closed at 4049,fallsWidth 032%；The main force of coking coalfalls30.5, closed at 17865，fallsWidth 168%；Coke workhorsefalls22, closed at 23995，fallsWidth 091%；Iron orefalls2.5, closed at 994,fallsWidth 025%。
At present, the macro policy is expected to weaken, the market is taking the transaction logic of costs and steel enterprise profits, and the long and short game of disk funds has not yet gone out of the obvious direction trend, if the steel priceIt also needs to be pushed by big positive news, for the time beingThe power is insufficient, and at the same time 9thIndividual steel mills in Tangshan have notified the second round of coke price reduction, with a range of 100-110 yuan tons, and the implementation will be implemented at 0 o'clock on the 10th. For the time being, coke enterprises did not respond, but the cost side support weakened, and steel companies left the factory slightly, the market transaction is sluggish, and the merchants are mostly wait-and-seeUnless there is a big policy stimulus, the trend remains unchanged this week, and it is expected that tomorrow's steel will run steadily and weakly, with a range of 10-40 yuan tons.
1. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in February is 953%
According to the CME "Fed Watch": The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 5 in February25%-5.The probability that the 50% interval will not change is 953%，DropThe probability of 25 basis points is 47%。The probability of keeping the rate unchanged by March is 381%, cumulativeDropThe probability of 25 basis points is 591%, cumulativeDropThe probability of 50 basis points is 28%。
As the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the number of new non-farm jobs in December exceeded market expectations, the dollar index grew, capital investment enthusiasm fell, and commodities generally fell, affecting the domestic market steel spot operation sentimentEspecially in the off-season of traditional steel consumption, speculative demand has weakened, the market transaction is cold, and the trend of steel is bearish.
2. The total iron ore inventory increased month-on-month
At present, as of January 9, the total inventory of imported iron ore in China's 45 ports is 12,430240,000 tons, an increase of 1 from last Thursday5%。47 port total inventory 13010240,000 tons, an increase of 1 from Thursday6%。Specifically, the inventory in each region in this period has increased to varying degrees compared with last Thursday, among which the inventory in North China has increased to the highest level since the fourth quarter with the arrival of iron ore in Hong Kong, and the pressure on the port has increased.
Due to the concentrated increase in foreign iron ore shipments in December, the arrival of iron ore at the port continued to increase, and the total inventory at the port increased to varying degrees, suppressing iron oreIn addition, steel enterprises have stopped production and maintenance, and the resumption of production is limited, the demand for iron ore has declined, and the cost support has weakened, which is bearish for the steel trend.
New home transactions in big cities fell 53 week-on-week6%
From January 1st to January 7th, the total area of new commercial housing transactions (contracts) in 8 key cities was 164130,000 square meters, week-on-weekDrop53.6%。During the same period, the total area of second-hand housing transactions (contracts) in 10 key cities was 126560,000 square meters, week-on-weekDrop
Although many departments of the state have successively introduced various macro favorable policies, and many regions are also actively supporting the recovery of real estate due to urban policies to meet the financing of real estate enterprises, but from the statistical data, residents' investment confidence is still insufficient, and the transaction of new houses is month-on-monthDeclineThe amplitude is larger, at the same timeAffected by the weather, the progress of the project has slowed down, the downstream terminal demand of the market has weakened, and the trend of steel has been bearish.
Today's steel mill guidance is stable。Affected by the lifting of environmental protection and production restrictions in Tangshan and the month-on-month decline in transactions on the demand side, the current pattern of supply and demand of finished materials is weak, and the willingness of merchants to store winter is low, and most of them are mainly passive winter storage. Recently, steel mills have fluctuated with the charge, ore performance, and bifocal have begun to weaken. The supply and demand pressure of the steel market in the off-season has increased, but the cost support is strong, and the focus of market transactions has shifted to winter storage and replenishmentShort-term steel mills follow the trend of cost and winter storage replenishment, and it is expected that short-term steel mills still have space.
First, Jiangsu Nangang building materials ** adjustment policy
On January 9, the price adjustment information of Jiangsu Nangang construction steel is as follows:
Thread:Downward adjustment20 yuan, now 16-20mmHRB400 rebar execution price of 4010 yuan ton;
Remarks: 12mm screw plus 120 yuan, 14mm plus 60 yuan, 22mm and 25mm plus 30 yuan, 28mm, 32mm plus 60 yuan, seismic plus 30 yuan, nuclear power thread plus 50 yuan;
The above adjustments are tax inclusive and will be implemented from January 9, 2024.
Second, the Yangtze River Iron and Steel Hefei Building Materials Adjustment Policy
On January 9, Changjiang Iron and Steel adjusted the ex-factory price of building materials in Hefei as follows:
1. Thread:Downward adjustment20 yuan, now 18mm seismic thread** is 3950 yuan ton;
2. Coiled snail: unchanged, now 8mm seismic coiled snail is 4170 yuan ton;
The above adjustments are tax inclusive and will be implemented from January 9, 2024.
Third, Yongfeng, Shiheng building materials ** adjustment policy
On January 9, Yongfeng and Shi Heng adjusted the construction steel factory, and it was stable
1. Rebar guidance, 22mmHRB400 rebar is now 3860 yuan ton, 10mm plus 150 yuan ton;12mm increase 150 yuan ton, 14mm increase 120 yuan ton, MM increase 90 yuan ton, 28-32mm increase 150 yuan ton, 36-40mm increase 280 yuan ton, HRB400E same specification and same price;HRB500 high-strength with the same specification is increased by 220 yuan ton.
2. Coiled snail guidance, now 10mmHRB400 coiled snail implements **4100 yuan ton, 6mm plus 350 yuan ton, 8mm plus 30 yuan ton, 12mm plus 200 yuan ton;HRB400E has the same specifications and the same price.
3. Guidance, 10mmHPB300 coiled snail is now 4100 yuan ton, 6mm is 350 yuan ton, 8mm is 30 yuan ton, and 12mm is 200 yuan ton.
All prices include tax.
Fourth, the first adjustment policy of Shandong Iron and Steel Building Materials
On January 9, Shandong Iron and Steel hot-rolled ribbed steel bar Jinan regional guidance, stable, adjusted, straight screw HRB400E22mm guidance **3880 yuan ton, coil snail HRB400E10mm guidance **4120 yuan ton.
Fifth, Masteel Maanshan and Hefei building materials ** adjustment policy
On January 9, Masteel on building materials in Ma'anshan and Hefei **Downward adjustment30 yuan, adjusted as follows:
1. High Line:Downward adjustment30 yuan, now Hefei 8mmhpb300 high line implementation ** for 4320 yuan ton, Ma'anshan area 8mmhpb300 high line implementation **4310 yuan ton;
2. Thread:Downward adjustment30 yuan, now Hefei 20mmHRB400 rebar implementation ** for 4120 yuan ton, Ma'anshan area 20mmHRB400 rebar implementation ** for 4110 yuan ton;
3. Pan snail:Downward adjustment30 yuan, now Hefei area 8mmHRB400 coil snail implementation ** for 4320 yuan ton, Ma'anshan area 8mmHRB400 coil snail implementation ** for 4310 yuan ton.
The above adjustments are tax inclusive and will be implemented from January 9, 2024.
Sixth, Jiangsu Pinxin building materials ** adjustment policy
On January 9, Jiangsu Pinxin construction steel factory ** threaded stable coil screwDropThe details of 20 yuan are as follows:
HRB400E22 rebar in Jiangsu is 3830-3860 yuan, HRB400E8-10 coil snail is 4050-4080 yuan;
Shandong HRB400E22 rebar 3810-3830 yuan, HRB400E8-10 coil snail 4030-4050 yuan;
Henan HRB400E22 rebar 3830 yuan, HRB400E8-10 coil snail 4050 yuan;
Anhui HRB400E18 rebar 3830-3880 yuan, HRB400E8-10 coil snail 4050-4100 yuan.
All of the above ** are tax-included prices for one ticket. The above ** will be implemented from January 9, 2024.
Seventh, Jiujiang Pinggang Jiangyin, Wuxi medium and heavy plate adjustment policy
Jiujiang Pinggang Jiangyin and Wuxi regional plates were guided on January 9Downward adjustment10 yuan: 4160 yuan ton of general plate, 4310 yuan ton of low alloy plate.
8. Jiangsu Huawei medium and heavy plate ** adjustment policy
On January 9, the basic carbon price of Jiangsu Huawei medium and heavy plate factory was 4,090 yuan, and the price of manganese plate increased by 180 yuan, which was stable.
9. Adjustment information of Tangshan Donghua High Line
On January 9, Tangshan Donghua construction steel factory was stable (ton price, the same below):
1, HPB300 material 8-10mm high line factory 3980 yuan, the above ** will be implemented from January 9, 2024.
10. Yutian Jinzhou wire rod ** adjustment information
On January 9, Yutian Jinzhou wire rod benchmark**Downward adjustment20 yuan, after adjustment:
1. Now HPB300 material 8-10mm high line 3900 yuan;6.5 12mm plus 60 yuan;
2,6mm factory **4020 yuan.
Ten.
1. Wu'an Jinding High Line ** Adjustment Information.
On January 9, Wu'an Jinding against the high line**Downward adjustment20 yuan tons, the specific specifications are as follows:
1, Q195 material 65mm high wireDownward adjustment20 yuan ton, now factory ** implementation of 4010 yuan ton, 2, Q195-235 material 8-16mm high lineDownward adjustment20 yuan tons, now factory ** implementation of 3950 yuan tons, the above are tax included in the pound.
Ten.
Second, Shanxi Meijin building materials ** adjustment information.
On January 9, Shanxi Meijin thread, wire rod and coil snail**Downward adjustment30 yuan, after adjustment:
1. High line**, now HPB300 8-10mm is 4060 yuan ton;
2. Rebar **, now HRB400E 18-25mm is 4010 yuan ton;
3. Snail **, now HRB400 8-10mm is 4060 yuan ton.
Ten.
Third, Shanxi Jinnan building materials ** adjustment information.
On January 9, Shanxi Liheng building materials factory ** stable (ton price, the same below):
1. Now 18-22mmHRB400E rebar factory ** is 4110 yuan, 12 plus 200 yuan, 14 plus 200 yuan, 16 plus 50 yuan, 28-32 plus 150 yuan;
2. Now Q235 material 8-10mm high line factory ** is 4070 yuan, 65 plus 50 yuan, Q195 material 65. The high line is increased by 110 yuan on the basis of 235 material;
3. Now 8-10mmHRB400E coil snail factory ** is 4090 yuan, 6 plus 200 yuan plus 150 yuan;The above ** will be implemented from January 9, 2024.
Ten.
Fourth, Shougang Changzhi building materials ** adjustment information.
From 9 o'clock on January 9, Shougang Changzhi unified rebar, rebar, snail, wire rod and section steelDownward adjustment30 yuan ton, the rest of the varieties ** stable, settlement to the e-commerce system actual time shall prevail.
Ten.
Fifth, Licheng Taihang building materials ** adjustment information.
On January 9, Licheng Taihang** was adjusted as follows:
HRB400E rebar**Downward adjustment20 yuan ton, 18-22mm ex-factory** is 3870 yuan ton, 12+150, 14+100, 16+30, 25+30, 28+70, 32+100.
Ten.
Sixth, Inner Mongolia Yaxin building materials ** adjustment information.
On January 9, Inner Mongolia Yaxin factory **thread, wire rod and coil screw**Downward adjustment30 yuan, after adjustment:
1. High wire: wire HPB300 material 8-10mm**3870 yuan ton, 6mm plus 200 yuan ton, 12mm plus 20 yuan ton;
2. Snail: HRB400E material 8-10mm**3950 yuan ton, 6mm plus 200 yuan ton, 12mm plus 20 yuan ton;
3. Rebar: HRB400E18-25mm specification 3890 yuan ton, 12-14mm plus 140 yuan ton, 16mm plus 30 yuan ton, 28-32mm plus 50 yuan ton.
Note: The above ** are all over-weighed.
Ten.
Seventh, Puyang Iron and Steel plate ** adjustment information.
On January 9, Puyang Iron and Steel Medium and Heavy Plate ** was stable, and the price lock policy (limited order): 1. The inventory spot base price was 3940 yuan ton 2, the base price of manganese plate, fixed rolling, and variety steel was 3990 yuan ton, excluding heat treatment materials 3, the base price of general carbon circulation was 4010 yuan 4, the base price of wear-resistant steel was 3820 yuan ton 5, the base price of Q550-Q690 was 3820 yuan 6, and the base price of other heat treatment materials was 3820 yuan ton, and the customization was a single negotiation.
Ten.
8. Adjustment information of Jingye steel medium and heavy plate.
On January 9, the conventional material of Jingye steel was stable, with a price lock policy of 3,970 yuan, and a variety board price lock policy of 4,000 yuan in Hebei, Shanxi and ShandongBeijing, Tianjin 3990 yuan, Henan 3980 yuan.
Ten.
9. Tangshan Ruifeng Strip ** adjustment information.
On January 9, Tangshan Ruifeng strip steel factory ** stable: 545-600 reported 3920 yuan, 1200-1220 reported 3940 yuan, tax included.
Two.
10. Adjustment information of JISCO building materials.
On January 9, the ex-factory construction steel of Jiugang remained stable (ton price, the same below).
1. Now 20mmHRB400E rebar is 4430 yuan, 12-14mm is 150 yuan, 16mm is 80 yuan, 18 22 25mm is 50 yuan, 28-32mm is 150 yuan;
2. Now 8-10mmHRB400E coil snail is 4670 yuan.
3. Now the 8-10mmHPB300 high line is 4570 yuan, and the 6mm price is 150 yuan.
The above ** are tax included, and the above ** will be implemented from January 9, 2024.
Two.
Ten. 1. Chongqing Yonghang Building Materials** adjustment information.
On January 9, Chongqing Yonghang Building Materials**Downward adjustment20-30 yuan tons, adjusted as follows:
1. Rebar**Downward adjustment20 yuan ton, now HRB400E 12-14mm is 3980-4000 yuan ton, HRB400E 16mm, 20mm, 22mm, 25mm is 3960 yuan ton, HRB400E 18mm is 3900 yuan ton, HRB400E 28-32mm is 4080 yuan ton;
2. Coiled snail**Downward adjustment30 yuan ton, now HRB400E 6mm is 4340 yuan ton, HRB400E 8-10mm is 4110 yuan ton, HRB400E 12mm is 4150 yuan ton;
3. Wire rod**Downward adjustment30 yuan ton, now HPB300 6mm is 4340 yuan ton, HPB300 8-10mm is 4110 yuan ton.
As of now, the other dayupwidth is basically quiltedfallsFinish. The weakening of the black system is mainly due to the loss of steel mills squeezing bifocal, which leads to the loosening of the cost side and drags down the steel, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials in the short term. How to go tomorrow, look down at ......
1. At the beginning of the new year, many places will launch new policies for the property market
Judging from the characteristics of the new property market policies issued by many cities this year, the second and third-tier cities are mostly based on provident fund and housing purchase subsidy policies, while a few areas continue to support the development of the real estate industry from the aspects of housing number identification standards, transaction taxes and fees, and pre-sale fund supervision. (Sina Finance).
2. Some steel mills in Tangshan carried out the second round of coke reduction
On the whole, some steel mills controlled the rhythm of coke arrival, coupled with the weakening of coke cost support, and some steel mills in Tangshan carried out the second round of coke raisingDrop, the short-term coke market or weak operation. (Golden Ten Data).
3. It is expected that interest rates will be cut twice this year, and the first rate cut will be in the third quarter
Fed Bostic: Bostic reiterated on Monday that this year will beDropand told reporters after the meeting that he expects 2024DropTwice, for the first timeDropInterest rates will be lower than market expectations in the third quarter, bearish for commodities. (Finance Associated Press).
Today's rebar: steady and falling
Raw materials, especially coal and coke, have fallen significantly in recent days, which has a certain impact on the overall trend of rebar. In addition, in the short term, the spot supply and demand are weak, and the disk is adjusted, and it is expected that the rebar will be stable tomorrowfallsRun.
Today's hot roll: a slight downward adjustment
In addition, the current macro expectation of speculation drive weakened, frequent disturbances to the market, affecting the mentality of market merchants, and it is expected that the hot coil will run steadily and weakly tomorrow.
Today's medium plate: narrow and weak
The demand for medium and heavy plates remains resilient, and the medium and heavy plates of steel mills are still in the loss stage, and the short-term plate ** fluctuates around the cost. Considering the decline of bifocal and iron ore, it is expected that the medium plate will run steadily and weakly tomorrow.
Today's strip steel: the main steady fall
With the deepening of the off-season, it is difficult to increase the market demand, and the pressure on supply and demand is still obvious. However, at present, the losses of steel mills have intensified, and the strip steel ** is also slightly supported, and it is expected that the strip steel will stabilize tomorrowfallsRun.
Today's profile: stable and weak
At present, the overall inventory of steel mills is still at a high level, the pressure on steel mills to go to the warehouse still exists, and the willingness to raise prices is not strong. Coupled with the downward trend of the disk, the billet support weakened, the market mentality is cautious, and it is expected that the profile will be stable tomorrowfallsRun.
Today's pipe: steady in the fall
The first-class policy of the pipe factory has not been adjusted, and the price adjustment space of the downstream first-class business is limited. The supply and demand sides continue to play, or affect the short-term transaction status of the operation, it is expected that tomorrow's pipe ** will continue to be stablefallsRun.
Billets Today: Steady Operation
Recently, the supply and demand data of billets have been weak, and the social treasury has continued to increase, and the individual market prices are small todayDownward adjustment。However, based on the cost pressure of steel enterprises is still large, there is still some support at the bottom, and it is expected that the billet will continue to operate steadily tomorrow.
Iron Ore Today: **
Recently, it has been in a policy vacuum, and the macro sentiment is bearish in the case of weak reality. In addition, the production of hot metal continues to decline, the market fear of heights is obvious, the performance of winter storage is average, and it is expected that the mine price will run at a high level tomorrow.
Today's coke: the pressure is falling
Affected by the raw material end coking coal ** continuedImpact, coke cost support weakened, coupled with the further weakening of steel terminal demand, the coke inventory in the plant increased slightly, and it is expected that coke will run steadily and weakly tomorrow.
Scrap today: Narrow and weak
As a result, most of the steel mills have arrived in the past two days, and some steel mills have even been pressed. However, judging from the gap in winter storage, there is still room for steel mills to prepare for storage, which is deep in the short termfallsThe probability is not large, and it is expected that scrap will weaken slightly tomorrow.
Today's pig iron: the Lord is steady and falling
The iron scrap gap is large, and scrap continues to crowd out the pig iron market demand, and downstream foundries are successiveDiscontinuedDuring the holiday, there is also an expectation of reduction at the first end, and the overall supply and demand are in a weak pattern, and it is expected that the pig iron will be stable tomorrowfallsRun.
Recently, the accumulation rate of the steel market has slowed down, coupled with the continuous reduction of the first end, the contradiction between supply and demand is relatively limited. At present, steel prices are affected by the loosening of the cost side, as well as the impact of macro expectations are greater, and under this **, the willingness of merchants to store in winter is not strong, and it is still a passive replenishment, and the market demand needs to be increased, and it is expected that the steel price will stabilize tomorrowfallsRun, range 10-20 yuan.
Decision Recommendations:The disk ** is adjusted, and the spot ** is trappedLack of kinetic energy,There is still a supported situation. It is recommended that merchants have an appropriate amount of inventory just need to operate, and keep a wait-and-see with low inventory, waiting for the best opportunity. (For reference only, not investment advice).
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