Lao Tie A:At present, the inventory has been maintained in a relatively healthy state, the market I personally am still more bullish, at least a year ago, the raw materials can not come down, how can there be space for the finished products, but I may continue to operate in the future to maintain low inventory operation, do not trade in the near future.
Steel spot and *** summary
On January 9, the decline in the domestic steel market narrowed, and the ex-factory price of Tangshan billet remained stable at 3,630 yuan ton. Steel futures continued to decline, downstream demand was sluggish, and the overall transaction declined.
On January 9th, the black series **all**. The price of the main contract of the snail is 3943, which is 0 from the previous trading dayAt 45%, DIF crosses DEA downward, and the RSI three-line indicator is located at 33-45, running towards the lower band of the Bollinger Band.
On January 9, 9 steel mills lowered the ex-factory price of construction steel by 20-30 yuan.
Varieties of steel daily***
Rebar:On January 9, the average price of 20mm** seismic rebar in 31 major cities across the country was 4,055 yuan ton, 8 yuan ton compared with the previous trading day. Specifically, on the 8th, the night of the snail adjustment, this morning in major domestic cities construction steel ** overall weak and stable, individual continued to be weak.
In terms of transactions, the feedback from merchants in the morning was affected by the snails, the market wait-and-see situation increased, the demand was sluggish, the inquiry was scarce, and the shipment was not smooth. In the short term, the accumulation rate of rebar has slowed down, coupled with the continuous reduction of the first end, the accumulation of supply and demand contradictions is limited, and the downward pressure is insufficient. There is still an expectation of replenishment at the superimposed raw material end, and the cost forms a certain support for steel pricesTherefore, it is expected that on January 10, domestic construction steel ** or will continue to run in a narrow range**
Hot rolled coil:On January 9, 24 major cities in the country 4The average price of 75mm hot-rolled coil was 4090 yuan ton, 5 yuan ton compared with the previous trading day. Black commodities *** down, the spot market in the morning **slightly**, the transaction is average, the afternoon disk continues**, the transaction is poor.
On the whole, the recent rise in raw materials has been suspended, the support of finished products has weakened, the spot has been slightly stable, and the willingness of merchants to raise prices is strong. However, the actual demand is still poor, and terminal procurement is still dominated by on-demand procurement. Overall, in the case of high costs,In the near future, hot-rolled coils may continue to maintain a high level
Cold rolled coils:On January 9, the national cold-rolled coil spot was running weakly, with a national average price of 4,760 yuan ton, 3 yuan ton compared with the previous trading day. **Hot coil decline continues, the market trading atmosphere is more deserted, most markets are temporarily stable**, but increase preferential efforts, and the terminal demand is not ideal, and the transaction has not improved significantly after the price reduction.
According to South China's leading businessmen, the recent market transactions are shrinking, some downstream holidays this week, orders shrink significantly, and with the arrival of market resources in Hong Kong, the market outlook has increased slightly, downstream customers are pessimistic about the market outlook, and the short-term has not shown the willingness to store in winter, so the current market operation is mainly based on price reductions. In summary,It is expected that on January 10, the national cold-rolled coil market will continue to run weakly.
Plate:On January 9, the average price of 20mm plain board in 24 major cities across the country was 4,120 yuan ton, 4 yuan ton compared with the previous trading day. **The market is weak**, the market is sluggish, and the overall transaction is not good. According to market feedback, macro expectations and cost support have gradually weakened, the off-season characteristics are more obvious, the pattern of weak fundamentals has not changed, and the market is concerned about winter storage and northward timber, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. The first round of coke reduction has been fully implemented, and at present, steel mills and business players are in the game stage, superimposed on the weakness, and the terminal replenishment action is still low.
* The end steel mills maintain unsaturated production, the downstream procurement efforts on the demand side are not strong, and some markets continue to be out of stock, supporting the price of the plate to a certain extent, and the willingness to raise the price still exists. All in all,It is expected that on January 10, the domestic plate **narrow**
Raw fuel daily***
Iron ore:On January 9, the mainstream varieties of iron ore imported from Shandong port were stable compared with yesterday. **Merchants** enthusiasm is acceptable, there are few spot transactions, and the varieties are mainly PB powder and card powder;The market sentiment in the far month is acceptable, and there are a small number of transactions in PB powder at the end of JanuaryIn terms of buying, steel mills in the region mainly replenish the warehouse on demand, and the inquiry is more cautious. At present, the mainstream of PB powder is 1040-1043;The main stream of card powder is 1140-1145;The mainstream of Mack powder is 1025-1030;PB block mainstream at 1180-1185.
Coke:On January 9, the market is running weakly, Hebei individual steel mills proposed the second round of price cuts for coke procurement, and the mainstream coking steel enterprises have not yet responded, with the full landing of the first round of coke price reductions last week, the profits of coke enterprises have shrunk again, the pace of coking coal procurement has slowed down, the market has low resource acceptance, the coke enterprises in the production area have started to stabilize temporarily, and there is still pressure on shipmentsUnder the pressure of losses in downstream steel mills, blast furnace maintenance continues to cause the output of molten iron to continue to decline, and the coke inventory in most steel mills can still maintain on-demand procurement, and the marginal improvement of coke supply and demand has continued to seek profits from upstream this week.
Scrap:On January 9, the market was slightly lowered, the scrap of mainstream steel mills remained stable, and some steel mills were reduced by 20-30 yuan tons. The average price of scrap steel in 45 major markets across the country was 2,634 yuan, down 5 yuan tons from the previous trading day. Specifically, the snail disk continued to decline, resulting in a gradual rise in market bearishness, the market began to ship on a large scale, some steel mills appeared to press cars and ships, mainstream steel mills maintained a temporary stable receipt, and small and medium-sized steel mills made slight adjustments according to their own inventories. At present, the base continues to ship, and the inventory of some sites has bottomed outIt is expected that the short-term scrap** may be stable to weak operation
Fed rate cut expectations weakened, and macro sentiment was repeated
Non-farm payrolls increased by 21 in December 202360,000 people, not only well above the consensus expectation of 1710,000, also up from a revised 17 in November30,000 people, the unemployment rate is 37%。After the release of the data, the dollar exchange rate climbed and the non-farm payrolls data rose more than expected, prompting financial markets to support the Fed in MarchDropThe expected decline in interest rates.
On January 9, Fed Governor Bowman said it had not yet been reachedDropThe right time;There are still significant upside risks to inflation, and caution is still needed;There is still a willingness to raise interest rates if the development of inflation stalls;With the rate of inflation downDropDropThe information will eventually be appropriate;Policy seems to be sufficiently restrictive in terms of achieving the 2% inflation target.
ExpectedDropThe timing of interest rates will not be as optimistic as the market expects in March, the FedDropIt may be around the middle of this year.
The support of the raw material side is weakened in the short term, and coke is expected to have three rounds of reduction
Individual steel mills in Tangshan have notified the second round of coke price reduction, with a range of 100-110 yuan tons, which will be implemented at 0:00 on January 10.
At present, the losses of steel mills are intensifying, and downstream steel mills and coke enterprises are in the process of winter storage, which has certain demand support. However, due to the continuous decline of molten iron, the gap between supply and demand of coal and coke continues to expand, the demand for coke consumption weakens, and the rhythm of arrival is controlled, and the profits of coke enterprises are acceptable, the short-term output has increased, and the coke of steel mills has accumulated 100,000 tons, and the industrial level is under pressure, creating conditions for the second round of steel mills. At the end of the month, steel mills may propose a third roundDownward adjustment, but considering that the time is close to the Spring Festival, the third round is downfallsThe implementation needs to wait and see.
Iron ore **high**, domestic imported ore to the port is still at a high level, in the resumption of production of steel enterprises and the demand for replenishment before the Spring Festival, driven by the total inventory of imported ore, and mainly reflected in the steel mill link, on the other hand, the port and port resources, is expected to maintain the current level, the stage of further accumulation of space is limited. The tight balance of iron ore is more clear, after the resumption of production of blast furnace, there is support for replenishment demand, although the disk has fallen, but the fundamentals are strong as a whole, and the ore spot ** has both demand-side support and high supply pressure, and it is expected that the ore ** is still dominated by a high ** trend.
It is difficult to increase demand, and the space for inventory** is limited
At present, although the demand for steel is weak, it is basically stable, and there is no large-scale decline compared with 2022DropThe situation, the reason is because of the late Chinese New Year this year, the current market internal trading seasonal factors have a greater impact, there is the current steel price for a long time at a high level, the first business for speculation tends to be cautious, the terminal for the acceptance of steel prices is not high, with the continuation of the off-season and the arrival of the winter storage season, the demand is difficult to increase significantly, to pay attention to the actual realization of speculative procurement profits.
Raw materials are at a high level, steel mill profits continue to compress, steel mill production enthusiasm has been affected, when the steel mill has not resumed production significantly, inventory pressure is acceptable, the probability of negative feedback is low, superimposed policies are possible to be introduced one after another, and the overall inventory trend contradiction is not significantfallsThere is cost and winter storage procurement support, so the inventory downward space is limited.
Today's building materials trend
On January 9, the national line snail ** was stable and weak. Tangshan billet was temporarily stable, reported at 3630 yuan ton. Yesterday, the billet was weakly adjusted by 20 yuan, and the downstream steel enterprises purchased billet at a low price to replenish the warehouse have increased, and the performance of the billet direct transaction is average. **Disc weak**, business mentality is more cautious, wait-and-see sentiment is becoming more and more intense, spot resources are more stable, merchants feedback that the actual transaction in the market is preferential, downstream procurement is more demand, low-level transaction performance is acceptable, speculative sentiment is weak, and the overall transaction performance is more average.
In the afternoon, some steel mills in Tangshan made a small explorationup, market merchants by a large marginDropThe willingness to ship at a price is limited, and overseas geopolitical risks are intensifying, and the Federal ReserveDropinterest expectationsDropWarm and domestic policy stimulus slowed down, terminal demand is weak and difficult to support, market pessimism dominates, near the end of the year, the market began to accumulate inventory, fundamentals weakened, coke opened a second round of liftingDrop, but the steel mills still have losses, the price sentiment is still there, the short-term steel price or the first operation, pay attention to the impact of inventory and macro on the steel market.
Disk movements
The coil snail is **weak**, where,The snail 05 closed at 3943, down 18;Issue 05 closed at 4049, down 13. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 289325 o'clock,up0.20%。The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 897172 points,up0.27%。The top 20 main institutions of the snail 05 reduced their long positions by 040,000 lots, short positions increased by 210,000 lots, the position change is bearish.
Today's thread registered warehouse receipts increased by 14,051 tons to 47,575 tons. From the 10th, the coke of individual steel mills in Tangshan opened the second round of liftingDrop, the range of 100-110 yuan tons, bifocal** weak operation, the market is expected to have three rounds of raisingDrop。Recently, the finished material has been declining. ** On the recent environmental protection warning lifted, early environmental protectionDiscontinuedof steel mills are gradually resuming production, but the annual maintenance and production reduction of new steel mills will increase, which will limit the space for the recovery of finished steel output in the future.
In terms of demand, thread demand has entered the seasonal off-season. In the short term, the finished product ** will maintain weak operation, and the coiled snail ** may still have room for downside. Note the period snail support 3900 and pressure 3970;The futures support is 4000 and the pressure is 4070.
Later **trend**
Recently, the performance of raw fuel** is weak, and steel mills are more cautious in procurement, and most of them have a wait-and-see attitude. The trading volume of the steel market in the off-season is flat, and the willingness of merchants to store in winter is not strong, and the operation is mainly based on price reduction. In the short term, the supply and demand of the steel market are weak, the cost support is slightly loosened, and the steel price may be weak and narrow.
The current domestic policy vacuum period is superimposed on the intensification of overseas risks, and the Federal ReserveDropinterest expectationsDropWen and domestic policy stimulus slowed down, the market pessimism dominated, the market returned to the industrial fundamentals, the terminal demand for finished products was weak to suppress the upper space, steel mills were in a state of loss, the attitude of resumption of production in January was more rational, the current support is that steel mills have entered the resumption of production cycle, the upward transmission path of weak demand for finished products is not smooth, steel mills continue to make profits to the charge, and the space below the disk is limited in the case of a relatively healthy iron ore basis.
At the same time, although the demand for finished steel is weak but basically in a stable state, when the steel mill has not resumed production significantly, the inventory pressure is acceptable, the probability of negative feedback is low, the off-season steel can not see the new increase in demand, and there is a lack of negative feedback base after the comprehensive accumulation.
The latest steel mill price adjustment on Tuesday, January 9
Masteel lowered 30 yuan tons!!
Masteel's adjustment of building materials in Ma'anshan and Hefei areas:
1. The high line is raised by 30 yuan tons: the 8mmhpb300 high line in Hefei is 4320 yuan ton, and the 8mmhpb300 high line in Ma'anshan is 4310 yuan ton
2. The thread is lowered by 30 yuan tons: the implementation of 20mmHRB400 rebar in Hefei is 4120 yuan ton, and the implementation of 20mmHRB400 rebar in Ma'anshan area is 4110 yuan ton;
3. The snail was lowered by 30 yuan tons: the implementation of 8mmHRB400 coiled snail in Hefei was 4320 yuan ton, and the implementation of 8mmHRB400 coiled snail in Ma'anshan area was 4310 yuan ton.
The above adjustments are tax inclusive and will be implemented from January 9, 2024.
Shanxi Meijin lowered by 30 yuan tons!!
Shanxi Meijin Construction Steel**Adjustment:
1. The high line is raised by 30 yuan tons: HPB300 8-10mm is 4060 yuan tons;
2. Rebar is reduced by 30 yuan ton: HRB400E 18-25mm is 4010 yuan ton;
3. The coiled snail is reduced by 30 yuan ton: HRB400 8-10mm is 4060 yuan ton.
Chongqing Yonghang lowered 30 yuan tons!!
Chongqing Yonghang building materials factory ** adjustment:
1. Rebar is reduced by 20 yuan tons: HRB400E 12-14mm is 3980-4000 yuan tons, HRB400E 16mm, 20mm, 22mm, 25mm is 3960 yuan tons, HRB400E 18mm is 3900 yuan tons, HRB400E 28-32mm is 4080 yuan tons;
2. The coiled snail is lowered by 30 yuan tons: HRB400E 6mm is 4340 yuan ton, HRB400E 8-10mm is 4110 yuan ton, and HRB400E 12mm is 4150 yuan ton;
3. The wire rod is reduced by 30 yuan tons: HPB300 6mm is 4340 yuan tons, and HPB300 8-10mm is 4110 yuan tons.
Inner Mongolia Yaxin lowered 30 yuan tons!!
Inner Mongolia Yaxin Construction Steel ** Adjustment:
1. The high line is adjusted by 30 yuan tons: wire rod HPB300 material 8-10mm**3870 yuan ton, 6mm plus 200 yuan ton, 12mm plus 20 yuan ton;
2. The coiled snail is lowered by 30 yuan tons: coiled snail HRB400E material 8-10mm**3950 yuan ton, 6mm plus 200 yuan ton, 12mm plus 20 yuan ton;
3. Rebar is lowered by 30 yuan tons: HRB400E18-25mm specifications are 3890 yuan tons, 12-14mm plus 140 yuan tons, 16mm plus 30 yuan tons, 28-32mm plus 50 yuan tons.
Note: The above ** are all over-weighed.
Wu'an Jinding lowered 20 yuan tons!!
Wu'an Jinding adjusts the high line**
1, Q195 material 65mm high line adjusted 20 yuan ton: 4010 yuan per ton, 2, Q195-235 material 8-16mm high line adjusted 20 yuan ton: ex-factory ** 3950 yuan ton, all of the above are tax included.
Nangang lowered 20 yuan ton!!
Jiangsu Nangang Construction Steel ** Adjustment:
1. The thread is lowered by 20 yuan ton: the execution price of 16-20mmHRB400 rebar is 4010 yuan ton;
Remarks: 12mm screw plus 120 yuan, 14mm plus 60 yuan, 22mm and 25mm plus 30 yuan, 28mm, 32mm plus 60 yuan, seismic plus 30 yuan, nuclear power thread plus 50 yuan;
The above adjustments are tax inclusive and will be implemented from January 9, 2024.
Yangtze River Iron and Steel lowered by 20 yuan tons!
Yangtze River Iron and Steel adjusted the ex-factory price of building materials in Hefei:
1. The thread is lowered by 20 yuan ton: 18mm seismic thread** is 3950 yuan ton;
2. The coil snail ** remains unchanged: 8mm seismic coil screw ** is 4170 yuan ton;
The above adjustments are tax inclusive and will be implemented from January 9, 2024.
Jinnan, Shanxi
Shanxi Jinnan building materials factory ** adjustment:
1. Rebar is stable: 18-22mmHRB400E rebar factory ** is 4110 yuan, 12 plus 200 yuan, 14 plus 200 yuan, 16 plus 50 yuan, 28-32 plus 150 yuan;
2. The high line is stable: Q235 material 8-10mm high line factory ** is 4070 yuan, 65 plus 50 yuan, Q195 material 65. The high line is increased by 110 yuan on the basis of 235 material;
3. Stable coil snail: 8-10mmHRB400E coil snail factory ** is 4090 yuan, 6 plus 200 yuan plus 150 yuan;
The above ** will be implemented from January 9, 2024.
Jiugang
JISCO construction steel factory ** adjustment:
1. The rebar is stable: 20mmHRB400E rebar is 4430 yuan, 12-14mm is 150 yuan, 16mm is 80 yuan, 18 22 25mm is 50 yuan, 28-32mm is 150 yuan;
2. Stable coil screw: 8-10mmHRB400E coil snail execution ** is 4670 yuan.
3. The high line is stable: 8-10mmHPB300 high line execution** is 4570 yuan, and 6mm is 150 yuan.
The above ** are tax included, and the above ** will be implemented from January 9, 2024.