In summary, the resumption of work after the holiday is better than that of the same period last year, but it has not fully recovered to the level of the same period before the epidemic. During the period of returning to the city after the holiday in 2024 (from the fifth day of the first lunar month to the twelfth day of the first lunar month), the cross-regional flow of people in the whole society will be 19800 million passengers, 15 percent higher than the same period in 2019 and 20233% and 115%。In addition, during the return to the city after the holiday in 2024, the subway passenger volume and the national freight logistics index of the 10 largest cities in the country have exceeded the levels of 2019 and 2023. In addition, high-frequency data shows that after the Spring Festival holiday in 2024, the construction site resumption rate is higher than that in 2023 but lower than in 2022 and 2021, and the industrial operating rate is stronger than in 2023. Last week, the market paid attention to the LPR more than expected to cut interest rates by 25bps, the ** Financial Committee held its fourth meeting, studied large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-in issues, and this week there will be China's February manufacturing PMI announcement, focusing on the recovery of manufacturing PMI excluding the Spring Festival effect.
Device Updates:This meeting proposed to promote "large-scale equipment renewal" and "various production equipment, service equipment renewal and technological transformation", which is conducive to further accelerating the growth rate of related equipment purchase and promoting the high-quality development of related industries. Among them, in 2023, the performance of automation equipment and construction machinery in the machinery and equipment industry will be better. In the power equipment industry, photovoltaic equipment and other power supply equipment performed well. At present, the valuation of the machinery and equipment industry and the power equipment industry is at a historically low level.
Consumer goods trade-in:In 2023, the growth rate of per capita disposable income of residents across the country will show an upward trend, but the growth rate of expenditure will be higher than the growth rate of income, which will restrict the growth rate of household consumption. In 2023, the cumulative retail sales of automobiles will increase by 59%, and the cumulative retail sales of furniture increased by 28%, household appliances and audio-visual equipment increased by 05%。The growth rate of automobile retail sales fluctuated greatly, and the sales growth rate of new energy vehicles was relatively high in the past two years. In the first three quarters of 2023, the revenue growth rate and net profit attributable to the parent company of household appliance parts, white goods and small household appliances in the household appliance industry are relatively high. In the automotive industry, the revenue growth rate of commercial vehicles, passenger cars, and auto parts, and the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company are relatively high. At present, the valuation of the household appliances industry is at a historically low level, and the valuation of the automotive industry is at a historically low level.
Effectively reduce the cost of social logisticsIn 2023, China's total social logistics will accumulate to 3524 trillion yuan, calculated at comparable prices, a cumulative year-on-year increase of 52%, compared to 3 in 2022The growth rate of 4% has increased, and China's social material flow has increased steadily. From the perspective of the performance of the transportation industry, in the first three quarters of 2023, the performance of aviation airports has increased significantly, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1115%, net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 104 year-on-year7%；secondly, the performance of railways and highways was better, and the growth rate of revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company both recorded positive values; The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of the logistics industry was positive; The growth rate of revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company of the shipping port industry are both negative, which is greatly affected by foreign trade. Valuations in the transportation sector are currently at historically low levels.
According to WSTS**, the memory chip market will grow by 44% year-on-year in 20248%, the growth rate is the first in the semiconductor segment.
Quantity: The capacity of a single machine has increased significantly, and the demand for storage for AI servers, AIPCs, and AI mobile phones has expanded. We believe that smartphone, server and PC shipments will all increase by a single-digit percentage in 2024, and the increase in single capacity may become the main driver of bit shipments in the storage market.
Price dimension: Storage** is expected to grow quarter-on-quarter in 2024. DRAM and NAND Flash contracts** started from 4Q23 and 3Q23, respectively, and according to Trendforce**, DRAM and NANDFLASH could continue to grow in four quarters**, driven by the recovery in demand. The price increase effect continues to appear, and the Q1 of the storage module factory is expected to be in the off-season. As the contract price of Dram Nandflash continues to rise, customers' willingness to stock up has increased. According to the revenue data of module manufacturers in Taiwan, China, in January, ADATA +13% MoM +64% YoY, Transcend +16% MoM +37% YoY, Innodisk +11% MoM +10% YoY, Guangying +12% MoM +20% YoY, reflecting the strong willingness of *** customers. Although the first quarter is the traditional off-season for consumer electronics, module manufacturers still have the momentum to increase volume and price, and it is expected that the off-season will not be weak.
Driven by policy, the domestic supply of the refrigerant industry will be limited, the supply and demand pattern has changed with the basis of product price increases, and the industry has been at a low profit level for a long time in the early stage, and the enterprises in the industry have the power to improve their profits, and the third generation of refrigerants is expected to enter the stage of continuous price increases. The price increase space of refrigerant is relatively high, the continuous window period is long, and the gradual realization of the first to the performance is gradually formed, which has certainty and scarcity in the existing environment, and is expected to drive the valuation increase.