datayes!pro summarized the strategic research reports that clicked on the top on February 26.Key takeaways:
The index is 8 consecutive positives, and the market is afraid of rising; However, from the perspective of the whole year, the current is still the bottom, and ** may usher in an annual inflection point. Under the basic confirmation of the bottom, the core of the research and judgment gradually turned to the direction selection. The index has 8 consecutive yang, from a historical point of view, the bottom of the multi-day continuous yang often indicates that the next *** current investors expect the market to provide a second buying point, and some investors believe that the macro environment has not changed, which is not enough to catalyze a comprehensive reversal; However, we believe that from the perspective of the importance of the capital market, the strength of macroeconomic policies, and the recovery of overseas economies, there is a high probability that there will be an annual inflection point in the macro and market this year. The core of market research and judgment is not a short-term game of policy, economy and market in 1-2 months, to guess how many points the market will adjust as a whole in a few months, but to adjust the structure, through what kind of allocation, in the next inflection point change, to achieve better returns. The allocation direction may be similar to the value of the first small cap growth in 2016. From the perspective of current allocation, the growth of small caps includes computer electronics radiated by overseas AI industries, and then the ** value includes stronger core assets & dividends (central state-owned enterprises + high-barrier leaders). Specifically, it is recommended to pay attention to the three major portfolios of Caitong strategy: "Super Falling Growth Small White Horse", "Core Assets That Can't Fall", and "Market Value Management of Central State-owned Enterprises".
Allocation strategy: short-term small-cap growth to restore high elasticity, and medium-term style will be switched to core assets & dividends. In terms of ranking: 1) In the short term, the growth of small caps represented by science and technology innovation has the strongest valuation and profit double-click odds, and the winning rate is also high at this stage, focusing on AI-related electronics, computers and other sectors mapped by overseas industries. 2) Stronger core assets & dividends in the medium term. The winning rate and odds of core assets such as consumer medicine are medium to high, and they have been relatively "down", and the downside risk is small, and the current low-level chip absorption window is in the window. High-dividend enterprises (central state-owned enterprises + high-barrier leaders), in the weak economic recovery to the recovery start-up stage, long-term stable operation + high dividend returns, often have continuous excess performance. From the perspective of structure, the consumption dividend has more room for relative valuation to rise, which prompts attention.
Key takeaways:
Market Thinking: Spring Respite Enters Phase 2. 1) Shrinkage and shorting, A-shares are still in the spring restless respite window. In the week before the Spring Festival in 2024, A-shares reversed from a sharp decline. Because the quantitative strategy was hit hard in the early stage and was under pressure such as redemption, it will bring a certain degree of shrinkage to the market, but it will not change the market sentiment. 2) In the process of the market bottoming out and gradually becoming clear, it is usually "the best to set up the stage and sing the drama in a small market". Taking 2012 and early 2019 as an example, the Shanghai Composite Index took the lead in stabilizing, but in the subsequent process, small and medium-cap stocks generally rotated to make up for the gains. 3) The rebound in the global manufacturing cycle will help corporate earnings bottom out. Judging from the total exports of South Korea, the "canary" of the global economy, and the preliminary PM values of the United States and France, the global manufacturing cycle is expected to pick up, which will bring improvement to corporate earnings. 4) In February, the policy was greatly strengthened, the liquidity stampede was lifted, the short 3000+ two sessions were approaching, and the spring restless respite entered the second stage.
Industry Configuration Recommendations:We think"Industrial upgrading" and "development support" are the two main lines of investment in 2024We believe that we should focus on the two major sectors of digital China and manufacturing power, and we recommend focusing on energy security and financial power for development support. 1. Digital China, it is recommended to pay attention to semiconductors, computers, and media; 2. Manufacturing power, it is recommended to pay attention to automobiles, industrial machine tools, industrial robots and consumer electronics; 3. Energy security, it is recommended to pay attention to coal, nuclear power, photovoltaic and wind power; 4. Financial power, it is recommended to pay attention to brokerages and banks.
Key takeaways:
The aerospace industry is a high-tech industry composed of space equipment such as missiles, rockets, satellites, space spacecraft, and deep space probes. At present, the aerospace industry has become an important force for comprehensively maintaining the strategic cornerstone of the world, promoting scientific and technological progress and serving economic and social development. It is not only a concentrated embodiment of the country's will and comprehensive national strength, but also a strategic highland for the game of great powers. In recent years, the global space industry has ushered in several great changes:The connection between the aerospace industry and the national defense industry has become unprecedentedly close, and in the context of increasing technological maturity, the nature of the aerospace industry in various countries has ushered in a huge change, and the United States, Russia, France and Japan have successively established space forces to seek space dominance; Commercial aerospace has gradually become a new driving force for the rapid development of the international aerospace industry, and the maturity and perfection of the launch vehicle technology of the commercial aerospace company SpaceX has directly reconstructed the market competition pattern of international commercial launches, and the successful launch and return of the Dragon spacecraft has created a historic breakthrough in the global commercial manned space industry. For example, SpaceX's low-orbit satellite Internet constellation StarLink is being intensively deployed, while companies such as OneWeb and Leosat have gone bankrupt due to high technical risks, unclear markets, or insufficient funding.
Under the technological blockade of the United States and other developed Western countries, China's aerospace industry has always adhered to an independent and controllable development direction. On the one hand, under the goal of becoming a space power, the "national team" of China's aerospace industry has made unremitting efforts and made many achievements. A number of China's self-developed aerospace equipment made their debut at the 70th anniversary of the National Day parade, indicating that the construction of China's missile equipment has been accelerated, and the actual combat level of equipment has been further improved; In recent years, the number of space launches has ranked first in the world, and the ability to enter space has jumped to the forefront of the world, and many major space projects have achieved decisive results: the first flight of the Long March 5B carrier rocket was successful in 2020; China's first global navigation satellite system, Beidou-3, was completed and officially opened; The first Mars probe "Tianwen-1" in the planetary exploration mission "Tianwen series" was successfully launched, the high-score special project and the three-step plan of the lunar exploration project have entered the final stage, and the construction of the Tiangong space station will begin. On the other hand, driven by the implementation of commercial aerospace-related support policies and the country's strategy of incorporating satellite Internet into the "new infrastructure", the "Duojiao" of the commercial aerospace market has attracted countless commercial aerospace companies to compete for the waist, many commercial space launch experiments have been carried out, and a large number of commercial satellite constellation plans have been proposed one after another. We believe that the above phenomena indicate that a new era of China's aerospace industry is coming, in this new era of aerospace where the journey is a sea of stars, the demand for aerospace defense equipment is expected to increase rapidly, and the national team and commercial aerospace will go hand in hand, coordinate and develop rapidly, and drive the overall market size of the aerospace industry to continue to grow rapidly. In August 2020, the Aerospace Science and Technology Group, the main body of the "national team" of China's aerospace industry, signed a deepening strategic cooperation agreement with the Aerospace Science and Industry Group, which will accelerate the deep integration of all fields with the goal of building a world-class aerospace enterprise group and a world-class aerospace defense group company, jointly enhance the international competitiveness and international influence of China's aerospace, and jointly safeguard the national interests. The deepening of strategic cooperation between the two major aerospace central enterprises fully demonstrates that China's aerospace "national team" will take the lead in forming a joint force and leading the high-prosperity development of China's aerospace industry.