2024 Chinese New Year outlook
At the end of the year, it was snowing outside the window, and the house was well heated, and I watched the snow for a long time, imagining the bitter cold wind outside the window.
This kind of weather is especially suitable for thinking, today we will talk about the economy, talk about the overall situation of the economy next year.
From a macro perspective, in 2024, as the political rift gradually deepens, the decoupling of the global ** will become more and more serious.
An obvious trend is that the global economy will no longer have the atmosphere of a king dominating the world, and the global economy will accelerate into the era of economic warring states.
Whether the major powers like it or not, this will become a fact.
On the one hand, it is because the national strength of the West has declined and it is no longer possible to unify the world; On the other hand, although the East is rising, its strength is still a lot behind, and it does not have the strength to dominate the world.
This is the most basic trend!
As a result, global integration will gradually diverge.
If Trump comes to power next year, this trend of disintegration will be even faster; Even if Biden is re-elected, he will not be able to stop this trend.
So, we are entering an era of disintegration!
And in 2024, because all the core economies of the world are **, this trend will gradually spread from the economy to politics.
Argentina, which has attracted the attention of the world, is just a pioneer in many countries!
This moment of disintegration is the perfect time to reshape the global order, just like the natural transition between Britain and the United States during World War II.
But it is a pity that there is not, and cannot be, a new great power to undertake all this.
Because, no new power will have such a strong strength.
The so-called global economic and political situation will gradually enter a period of turbulence, which will also be a long-term trend.
The probability that the world's three major powder kegs that we often see will all be detonated is also due to this!
When we look at the strength of an economy, we should not simply look at the comprehensive GDP, but also the per capita GDP.
Because per capita GDP is the concrete symbol of a country's comprehensive national strength.
Only the prosperity of the people of a country is the most solid foundation.
As we said, why is it that Japan has been in recession for 30 years, but its economy has not collapsed.
The reason for this is that in 1990, when the Great Recession began, Japan's GDP per capita was 2$50,000, compared to $2 in the United States$30,000 is high.
And after 5 years, this figure went from 2$50,000 to $40,000.
It is precisely these that support Japan's most solid economic foundation, so that the Japanese economy can slowly recuperate and adjust.
When the Three Kingdoms were competing for hegemony, Cao Cao was a rising star, and compared with the traditional clan Yuan Shao, it was simply a difference between cloud and mud.
Whether it is popularity or strength, it is far from the same.
However, Cao Cao knew the truth of defending the throne with wealth, and vigorously carried out the equalization system in the Central Plains, widely collected the world's displaced people, divided the fields and land, and worked together, and finally defeated the invincible Yuan family, and then dominated the north.
From the underlying logic, there is no substantial difference between today's international economic situation and the Cao Yuan dispute.
In ancient times, the so-called struggle for hegemony in the world was the right to collect taxes.
Today, the struggle for hegemony is the formulation of global economic rules and the formulation of legal systems, in fact, at the core, it is also the world's tax revenue.
This is the core essence of the offensive realism that is now prevalent in the West, and the biggest beneficiary of the global economy must be the global rule-makers.
Therefore, the battle for the global economy is nothing more than a battle for taxes.
Since the beginning of economic decoupling in 2019, the world has entered a world of great contention.
And in 2024, we will see a more complete geo-economic fragmentation.
We have said many times that the next step in the global economy is the wall economy and the bloc economy, and all the core countries must take sides.
This kind of fragmentation and differentiation has brought about another very real situation, that is, choice and hedging.
In 2023, I've been saying a term called passive income countries; That is, when the turmoil returns, capital and people automatically look for political and economic security.
To put it simply, it is to make a choice in the global geo-economic landscape, which will be the next mainstream trend.
In the past year, globally neutral advanced economies, such as Singapore and Japan, have seen a peak in capital and population inflows.
And in 2024, this trend will not change much.
From the perspective of the overall economic structure, East Asia and Southeast Asia in Asia will become the largest neutral economies in the global economy.
This is because Southeast Asia has a good balance among the major economies.
For example, we all know that in the past two years, Russia has been the economy that has suffered the most sanctions in the world.
was kicked out of the global ** system, and all exports and imports were extremely restricted;
being kicked out of the global monetary payment system can be called a salary draw; A large number of overseas dollar assets have been frozen, directly erasing many years of overseas earnings;
The collective withdrawal of foreign capital has taken away a large amount of international investment;
This has basically detached Russia from the entire Western economic system.
The problem is that all the sanctions have become like this, but the more sanctions Russia has become, the more prosperous it becomes.
Economic growth in 2023 is among the highest in the world, and it is the best result in Russia in many years.
This makes the entire West look for loopholes in the entire closed loop of sanctions!
How do we understand Russia's hidden growth?
When we penetrate layer by layer, we will find that it is the rapid turn of the Russian economy to Asia that has allowed the Russian economy to recover rapidly.
There is also the East, after the decoupling, the whole of Southeast Asia has become the main destination for the exports of the big countries in the East.
As the economic landscape continues to under-the-top frictions, East and Southeast Asia are becoming the largest neutral regions, and capital will continue to flow in.
So, at the Davos Forum, the most important global economic summit of 2024, held a week ago, 93% of the world's chief economists** said that the strongest regions for global economic growth next year will be East Asia and Southeast Asia in Asia.
This is the most certain thing in 2024.
And capital has no borders, and the only criterion is to be born for profit!
What we do know is that the big countries in the East have fallen like this, but in the past month, according to Bank of America data, the net inflow of funds into China reached 21.2 billion US dollars, 150 billion yuan, a record high.
It's really weird, but it also makes us think that maybe there is a difference in the perception of certain things in the game and outside the game.
During the stock market crash in 2015, there was also a large influx of foreign capital**, and this time it was the same! Perhaps institutional capital is really bolder and more rational than small scattering.
This is an era of scattered corpses everywhere and abundant institutional capital.
In the end, there is only one left in the end of Xiaosan, a leek that acts as an institution.
Max, the founder of Oaktree Capital, once said that when a market is low enough, you have to see whether its basic market will collapse, if not, then you can buy it, hold it for a long time and wait for appreciation.
So during the global economic crisis in 2008, Max bet that the United States as a whole was okay and would not collapse, so he used a lot of assets at low prices.
The bottom of the * is also a game, but also a choice.
Small scattered behaviors and decisions, and institutions have institutional rationality and decision-making.
The biggest difference between them is that Xiaosan is thinking about the market with the first level of thinking, while the organization is thinking about the market with the second level of thinking.
The core of the first level of thinking is that the market is efficient, so the current ** reflects everything;
The core of the second level of thinking is that the market is ineffective, so it does not reflect the actual value.
Therefore, the behavior between them is completely in the opposite direction, the more small scatters sell, the more institutions collect; The more small scatters buy, the more institutions sell.
Buying and selling seems simple, but behind it is the difference in the depth of understanding and cognition of human nature, and the difference in the depth of grasping the logic of market behavior.
In the end, all this is reflected in reality, which is the difference in choice!
In conclusion, I would like to say that the so-called research is to think carefully and discerningly, to see and hear all directions, and to use all kinds of knowledge for my own use.
China's economy is dissolved in the global economy, so we must always observe the global macro trend to make choices and hedges.
Looking forward to 2024, welcome to leave a comment!