Where is China's real estate heading after 2024? Li Ka-shing predicted the layout in advance
During the Spring Festival, friends in the field of real estate investment, as long as they get together to chat, there will be many people who sigh why they didn't sell their houses for cash in the first half of 2021, and now the houses are becoming more and more difficult to sell. What's more, house prices everywhere have risen by 30% from their peak in 2021**. In Shanghai, for example, in 2021, the average price of a dilapidated old house in the city center was more than 100,000 yuan per square meter, and by the end of 2023, the price has fallen to 6-70,000 yuan per square meter.
In recent years, there are two main reasons for the sharp rise in global housing prices: First, China's regulatory policies continue to ferment. China began to regulate the real estate market as early as 2016 and will not stop until 2021. As a result, the demand for investment speculation has been suppressed, and the adjustment trend of the real estate industry is very obvious.
Another reason is that due to the impact of the epidemic, many households have reduced their incomes or lost their jobs, and the purchasing power of national housing has weakened. At the same time, after years of the impact of the epidemic, the mentality of many home-buying families has improved and they are more rational than before. They are no longer buying a house on impulse as they used to, but decide whether they need to buy a house based on their actual situation.
Li Ka-shing has long predicted the current trend of the property market. A few years ago, Li Ka-shing said that in the next five years, housing prices will undergo major changes, speculation should be cautious, and the debt expansion of many mainland real estate developers will come to an end. Judging by the current situation in the real estate industry, these predictions are correct. At present, property speculators are faced with the fact that the market value of housing continues to be the best, but it is difficult to realize how big the loss of the house is. The real estate industry is reducing leverage and investment.
So the question is, in what direction will China's real estate market develop after 2024? In fact, as early as August 2023, the executive meeting analyzed and adopted the "Guiding Opinions on the Planning and Construction of Affordable Housing", proposing: accelerate the construction of affordable housing in the short term and increase the proportion of affordable housing in the total number of housing.
The document also presents:"The market belongs to the market, and the affordable housing belongs to the affordable housing"。At the same time, the document also clearly states that in the future, 35 cities with a population of more than 3 million will take the lead in piloting, and 6 million affordable housing units will be launched on the market in the next five years, with an average of 1.2 million units per year. This document has been called by many as the beginning of a new round of reform in the housing sector.
The reason why China wants to start a new round of housing reform is mainly because the housing prices in some parts of China are a bit high, and many low- and middle-income families cannot afford to buy houses. And through"Market + Protection"The model can not only allow the commercial housing market to fluctuate freely, but also solve the housing problem by allowing low-income groups to provide housing.
Li Ka-shing, who has long had a prediction about today's China, once said:"The property market in the mainland is a serious and stubborn disease, and it is necessary to solve the problem of the rigid needs of hundreds of millions of people. Learn from Singapore and build more public rental housing and affordable housing. Li Ka-shing's prediction many years ago also coincides with the current new round of housing reform. The new round of housing reform currently underway aims to build more affordable housing, rental housing, etc., to meet the housing needs of low-income groups and fill this gap. I have to say that Li Ka-shing's ** is still very accurate.
So, since Li Ka-shing's repeated predictions have come true, a new round of housing reform in China will be launched in 2024. What should ordinary people do in advance? First of all, if you are an urban low-income family, you can temporarily skip buying commercial housing. In the next few years, a large number of affordable housing in China will be listed, and housing prices will drop significantly.
Second, there will be a large number of new commercial houses and affordable housing in the future, and the quality of the housing will definitely be better than that of the old houses. Speculators who own several dilapidated homes are likely to face a situation where the market value of house prices is declining and it is becoming increasingly difficult to sell houses. Therefore, as long as the old house can still be sold, or can be sold at a low price, it is better to buy it early.