As Russia's invasion of Ukraine enters its third year, Putin's attitude has changed. Instead of pursuing the full demilitarization of Ukraine, he has instead proposed the creation of a demilitarized zone in Ukraine similar to the "38th Parallel" between the two Koreas. It is reported that in a meeting with the campaign team and the senior **, Putin revealed that Russia plans to demarcate a vast demilitarized zone in Ukraine, and the borders of this zone, that is, the distance between the demilitarized line and Russian territory, must be far enough to prevent Ukraine from using long-range ** attacks on Russian cities.
Putin's idea of a demilitarized zone is reminiscent of the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas. Since the signing of the Panmunjom Armistice Agreement in 1953, the two Koreas have established a demilitarized zone near the 38th parallel, which is 248 kilometers long and about 4 kilometers wide, and all military activities are prohibited. Despite the occasional military clashes in this area, its presence actually reduces the likelihood of accidental clashes between the border guards of the two Koreas.
The demilitarized zone proposed by Russia is much larger than the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas. Russia's claim is to keep Ukrainian troops away from the Russian border, which means that the demilitarized zone is entirely within Ukrainian-controlled territory. Ukrainian cities such as Kyiv may even be located within the demilitarized zone, given the operational radius of Western-aided missiles and homegrown suicide drones that Ukraine has.
In particular, Putin stressed that the long-range ** he was referring to was mainly used to attack Russian cities at a long range**, such as long-range artillery in the hands of Ukraine. At present, the longest-range artillery that Ukraine has is the "Hippocampus" rocket artillery system from the West, but the West does not provide Ukraine with ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 km, only a 165 km version.
The demilitarized zone envisaged by Russia would cover a vast area of about 160 kilometers along the Russian-Ukrainian border and the borders of the four eastern regions of Ukraine with neighboring regions. This will include Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv in the north of Ukraine, and even the outskirts of Kyiv, as well as Dnepropoderovsk in the east, Mykolaiv, Odessa and other regions in the south. The establishment of such a demilitarized zone would deprive Ukraine of the ability to launch a surprise offensive, while also powering to prevent possible further military action by the Russian side.
At the moment, Ukraine** has not accepted the proposal of the Russian side. Podolyak, an adviser to Ukraine's office, has clearly rejected Putin's claims and called for continued military support for Ukraine. Despite the fact that Russia is aware that the conditions for the creation of a demilitarized zone are not ripe at this stage, they consider it necessary to make such a proposal now.
There are a number of deep-seated reasons behind Putin's proposal to establish a demilitarized zone, which we need to go deeper. First of all, tensions in the Russian-Ukrainian border region continue to escalate, and the frequent cross-border operations of the Ukrainian army have increased, which has raised concerns in Russia. Such cross-border actions not only complicate the security situation in the region, but also pose a threat to the lives and property of the population. Therefore, the Russian side feels the need to take measures to maintain stability in the border areas.
Secondly, Russia** also faces dissatisfaction and concerns about its ability to protect its population. As the conflict in Ukraine continues, people's expectations of the population have become even higher, and they want to be able to ensure their safety and take action to solve the problems in the border areas. This domestic pressure forced ** to find a more effective way to deal with tensions in the border areas, and the establishment of a demilitarized zone became a possible solution.
In addition, the continued support of Western countries for Ukraine has also exacerbated Russia's concerns. Western countries have been providing military assistance and political support to Ukraine, which has gradually improved Ukraine's status in the international arena and increased pressure on the Russian side. In this case, Russia may believe that achieving the initial goal of demilitarization has become difficult, and therefore new tactics are needed to stabilize the situation.
The proposal to establish a demilitarized zone could also be seen as a diplomatic strategy. The Russian side may want to use this proposal to test the degree of acceptance of the program at home and abroad. This allows them to better understand the reaction of the international community and the Ukrainian side, so that they can make more informed decisions for follow-up.
However, it should be noted that even if Russia proposes a plan for a demilitarized zone, whether it can be realized in the end will be affected by developments on the battlefield. In a conflict, changes in areas of de facto control and the outcome of military operations will determine the final terms of the armistice and the demarcation of demilitarized zones. After all, what is not available at the negotiating table is often not available on the battlefield. If Russia wants to force Ukraine to sign the agreement, they may need to occupy four eastern regions and enter the intended demilitarized zone, which can weaken Ukraine's confidence in resistance and move negotiations forward.