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Financial Investment News reporter Lin Ke
In January this year, A-shares once again sharply **, many small and medium-sized caps ** fell hugely, but the heavy stocks such as "Zhongzitou" and banks stationed by major institutions are still relatively resistant, reflecting the essence of "looking at quality when falling". With the disclosure of the public offering ** 2023 quarterly report, ** holdings have gradually surfaced, and "keeping up with the big army" is a major direction of future investment. Judging from the change in shareholdings, the position adjustment and share swap in the fourth quarter of 2023 is not small. Some analysts believe that from the perspective of increasing positions, industries such as consumer electronics, medicine, and household appliances that have increased their holdings can choose the opportunity to allocate on dips.
Consumer Electronics:End-user demand continues to recoverThe performance of the consumer electronics sector is expected to increase slightly in the fourth quarter of 2023 from the previous quarter. In 2024, terminal innovation is expected to drive continuous improvement in operation, and the opportunities in the consumer electronics sector in 2024 are optimistic about the industry. From the perspective of institutional holdings, the consumer electronics sector as a whole will further improve in the fourth quarter of 2023, and the overall consumer electronics sector will increase by 04% to 263%, higher than the **flat** since 2010, and the overweight ratio increased by 028% to 031%。
From the perspective of the industry, since 2023, affected by the global economic downturn, geopolitics and other factors, the consumer electronics industry as a whole has been relatively sluggish, but driven by new technologies such as AI and MR, terminal demand has shown certain signs of recovery since the third quarter. Deng Yao, an analyst at CDB, pointed out that looking forward to the whole year of 2024, on the one hand, as the inventory returns to a reasonable level, the fundamentals of the consumer electronics industry will gradually improve; On the other hand, traditional terminals are expected to generate more new needs under the empowerment of AI. At the same time, MR, as a new terminal product, is also expected to promote consumer electronics into a new round of growth cycle under the leadership of brands such as Apple. Combined with market factors, the technology industry, as a new growth engine, is expected to continue to be a hot spot in the market in 2024, while consumer electronics, as a relatively low valuation variety, and in recent years, the pessimistic factors on the demand side have been fully released, with a certain allocation cost performance.
Yao Kang, an analyst at Xingye**, pointed out that the increment of the consumer electronics sector lies in the new products represented by wear, and Apple will successfully release its first MR product in 2023, representing that consumer electronics has entered the era of spatial computing, and MR is the next round of ** main line. It is recommended to focus on the following directions, the first is to benefit from the recovery of mobile phone and computer demand, and the performance of high-quality targets with greater performance elasticity. The second is that future performance can benefit from the innovation of downstream customers, including XR and mobile phone micro-innovation. It is recommended that investors pay attention to consumer electronics leaders that benefit from the recovery of demand and enter a new round of innovation cycle, such as Luxshare Precision, Changying Precision, Zhuhai Guanyu, Obi Zhongguang-UW, Transsion Holdings, Lante Optics, Jeput, Zhi Cube, etc.
A selection of potential stocks
Luxshare Precision (002475).
Changying Precision (300115).
Zhuhai Guanyu (688772).
Transsion Holdings (688036).
Medicine:Unexpected factors do not change the development prospects
With the valuation of the pharmaceutical industry approaching the historical low, the risk release is sufficient and the margin of safety is sufficient. Some industry insiders pointed out that although the stock price of pharmaceutical giants has fallen sharply due to sudden factors recently, the pharmaceutical industry as a whole has continued to develop due to stable market demand, and companies with certain and sustainable performance growth are more scarce, and are also expected to bring excess returns; On the other hand, there is a marginal improvement in prosperity or there is an inflection point, and the company is expected to have upward elasticity in terms of valuation and performance.
From the perspective of institutional holdings, the proportion of all-** pharmaceutical holdings in the fourth quarter of 2023 will be 1357%, an increase of 139%；Among them, the pharmaceutical theme ** accounted for 9555%, an increase of 092%；Excluding the pharmaceutical theme**, the position is 768%, an increase of 12%。The proportion of medical equipment and chemical preparation sub-sectors has increased significantly.
In terms of industry fundamentals, the third quarter of 2023 is the absolute bottom of the performance of the pharmaceutical industry in the next few years, the industry competition pattern has been further optimized, and the market share of compliance leading enterprises is expected to further increase. Zhang Jiabo, an analyst at Guoxin**, pointed out that at the valuation level, the adjustment of the market year-to-date has wrongly killed some growth stocks with high-quality fundamentals.
In terms of sector opportunities, Zhang Jinghan, an analyst at Shenwan Hongyuan, pointed out that with the continuous deepening of the aging in China, in the face of the increasing unmet medical needs of the elderly, it is recommended to pay attention to the listed companies in related fields, such as Hengrui Pharmaceutical, WuXi AppTec, Mabwell Biotechnology, Borui Pharmaceutical, Nuotai Biotechnology, Jiankai Technology, etc.; It is recommended to pay attention to innovative drug companies with FIC product layout, such as Baili Tianheng, BeiGene, Junshi Biosciences, and Chipscreen Biosciences. It is recommended to pay attention to the companies with good and sustainable performance in the fourth quarter of 2023: Nuotai Biotech, Tebao Biotech, Kain Technology, Aibo Medical, Hongbo Pharmaceutical, and Jiudian Pharmaceutical.
A selection of potential stocks
Hengrui Pharmaceutical (600276).
Junshi Biosciences (688180).
Nuotai Biotech (688076).
Yunnan Baiyao (000538).
Household Appliances:The performance is solid and the margin of safety is high
With the improvement of the real estate bottom and the gradual development of policies to promote consumption, the domestic demand of household appliances is expected to be supported, and the impact of the residual heat of festivals will be superimposed to help release the vitality of household appliance consumption. Some analysts pointed out that overseas inventories are gradually depleted, and the trend of export improvement is expected to continue. From the perspective of valuation, the valuation of the sector is still at a low position, and the margin of safety is high. From the perspective of allocation ratio, the allocation ratio of the household appliance industry in the public offering heavy position in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 255%, an increase of 012%, and the allocation ratio has continued to increase since the first quarter.
Benefiting from the improvement of real estate completion, the release of demand suppressed by the epidemic and the growth of exports, the revenue growth rate of the segment turned positive year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the operating income of the household appliances industry increased by 6% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 12% year-on-year01%。At the same time, with the optimization of the product structure of home appliance enterprises, as well as the easing of raw material pressure and the continued decline of sea freight, the profitability of the sector improved, and the gross profit margin of the sector in the first three quarters was 2542%, an increase of 1 year-on-year94%。Yang Ce, an analyst at China Galaxy, pointed out that with the improvement of the real estate bottom and the gradual development of policies to promote consumption, the domestic demand for household appliances is expected to be supported, superimposed on festivals, and the vitality of household appliances consumption will be released. Favorable factors such as the gradual depletion of overseas inventories, the low exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar, and the continuous decline in sea freight rates resonate, and the improvement trend of exports is expected to continue. From the perspective of valuation, the valuation of the sector is still at a low position, and the margin of safety is high.
Guan Quansen, an analyst at Guolian**, pointed out that in 2024, the domestic sales of household appliances are expected to usher in a large cycle of updates, and the prospect of going overseas is promising, and the advantages of superimposed valuation dividends are outstanding, and the industry is maintained "stronger than the market" rating. Benefiting from the pattern optimization and product upgrading, the black electric faucet, Hisense video is recommended; The penetration rate and share at home and abroad continue to increase, and the representative sweeper leader of the brand going overseas recommends Roborock and pays attention to Ecovacs; In addition, we continue to pay attention to Robam Appliances, Supor, Xiaoxiong Appliances, etc.
A selection of potential stocks
Midea Group (000333).
Hisense Video (600060).
Ecovacs (603486).
Three male aurora (300625).
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