On January 24, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that an Il-76 military transport plane crashed in Belgorod Oblast, leaving none of the 74 people on board. Among them were nine Russian crew members, entourage, and 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war. The prisoners of war were supposed to be transported to Ukraine and exchanged with Russia. The accident has sparked international concern and speculation about what caused the plane to crash?
At the moment, the Russian side has not announced the specific cause of the accident, only saying that an investigation is underway. But judging from the **and** posted by some netizens on social **, it seems that the plane had already happened in the air before it crashed**, and it was suspected that it was attacked by missiles. Moreover, when the plane fell, there was also thick smoke, which also indicates that the plane has been seriously damaged.
So, who shot down the plane? According to common sense and logical reasoning, the most likely answer is the Ukrainian side. First of all, the plane was tasked with transporting Ukrainian prisoners of war, and it is unlikely that the Russian military would inform the Ukrainian military in advance of its own flight plans. After all, the two sides are still at war, and even for the sake of exchanging prisoners of war, they will not easily expose their actions. Moreover, the plane flew over Russia's own territory and did not need to pass through the airspace of Ukraine. Therefore, it is likely that the plane was mistaken for an enemy military aircraft by the Ukrainian side and struck it.
Secondly, the place where the plane crashed was in Belgorod Oblast, near the border between Russia and Ukraine, and very close to Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. If the Ukrainian side has sufficient intelligence capabilities, or is assisted by the American side, then it is possible for them to detect and confirm the identity of the aircraft. Moreover, the Ukrainian side also has sufficient air defense capabilities, such as the use of long-range S-300 anti-aircraft missiles, to strike at this aircraft. In a word, the Ukrainian side has all the conditions and possibilities for detecting, confirming and striking this aircraft.
Of course, other possibilities have been raised, such as that the plane was shot down by Russia itself, or that it crashed because of a mechanical failure. But none of these possibilities are plausible.
First of all, in a war, although it is possible for one's own people to accidentally injure one's own people, it also depends on the specific environment. For example, there has been no large-scale fighting in the Belgorod region recently, and the Russian air defense forces will not be so nervous that they will pass off their own planes as enemy planes. Moreover, the task of transporting prisoners of war by this aircraft must have been notified in advance to the local troops, and the local air defense forces would definitely know the route of the plane and would not easily strike at it.
Secondly, the Il-76 aircraft itself is very reliable. Some Russian aviation experts said that even if two of the plane's four engines failed at the same time, as long as it was dealt with in time, it would not cause the plane to crash. And judging from the ** at the scene, the plane crashed very quickly, not like it got out of control because of a mechanical failure.
Therefore, the Russian side believes that the most likely reason for the crash of the plane was an external attack, that is, it was hit by a missile. So, does this mean that the Ukrainian side deliberately killed its own prisoners of war? I'm afraid that's not the case. Because although the Ukrainian side has killed its own prisoners of war before, this time they have reached an agreement with the Russian side to exchange prisoners of war. In that case, there was no need for them to do anything more against their own prisoners of war. Moreover, if the Ukrainian side can agree to the exchange of prisoners of war, there must be some more important figures on the Ukrainian side. It can only be said that the fate of these prisoners of war is really tragic, they have already survived the battlefield, and after being captured by the Russian side, they had hope of returning home, but they died at the last moment at the hands of their own people, it can only be said that this is their fate.