Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that it will combine the completion of the existing central enterprise index assessment in 2023 and the high dividend potentialChanghong state-owned enterprises (Changhong Meiling, Sichuan Changhong, Changhong Huayi) are expected to perform well. In addition, although some companies have completed the mixed reform of state-owned enterprises, but in the equity structure, the proportion of state-owned assets is not low, taking into account the assessment requirements of state-owned shareholders, such companies, for efficiency improvement, profitability and profitability improvement of the emphasis and the requirements for dividends and state-owned enterprise assessment standards are consistent, at the same time, the business perspective can also retain strong flexibility.
Guotai Junan's main views are as follows:
The status quo of state-owned household appliances: performance volatility is large, and the valuation is relatively low.
At present, there are 14 state-owned holdings in the home appliance sector, mainly traditional black and white major appliances and related supporting parts companies; In terms of changes in equity structure, from 2018 to 2022, some private household appliances enterprises have accepted the investment platform of state-owned assets, transforming from private enterprises to state-owned holdings, and some enterprises such as Gree and Hisense have completed restructuring and separated from the identity of "state-owned enterprises";
In terms of business performance, since 2020, the epidemic has been encountered, the rise of overseas markets and emerging categories, and the rapid changes in the external environment have not been flexible enough for the existing home appliance state-owned enterprises, reflecting that the growth and stability of revenue performance are weaker than the overall level of the industry; In terms of valuation level, the current home appliance industry as a whole is at the historical quantile level of less than 10%.
From the assessment standards of central enterprises, the value revaluation potential of household appliance state-owned enterprises: the indicators of Changhong household appliance state-owned enterprises have improved relatively significantly, but the overall ROE level of state-owned enterprises in the industry is relatively low.
Referring to the assessment indicators of "one profit and five rates" of central enterprises and the evaluation standards of the double bonus mechanism, the performance of state-owned enterprises of household appliances in 2023 has accumulated to Q3, and Changhong Meiling, Tianyin Electromechanical, and Qijing Machinery have completed better. Changhong Meiling and Sichuan Changhong have achieved a significant increase in per capita income and profit generation without a significant reduction in the number of employees.
From the perspective of ROE, most of the enterprises with improved ROE mainly benefit from the optimization of the net profit margin of sales, but except for MTC and Xiuqiang, the net profit margin of most state-owned household appliances is still at a loss or low single-digit level. Compared with the average ROE level of the home appliance industry in 2023Q3 (13.).98%), the ROE of state-owned enterprises is still low.
Dividend rate improvement potential calculation.
Referring to the highest dividend level in the history of state-owned enterprises in various countries, and giving a neutral and optimistic perspective, and considering the business situation of the enterprise, the performance in 2023 has not improved significantly, and the follow-up is the development of the second growth curve, and the probability of increasing the dividend rate is low.
Risk Warning:
Real estate sales and completions further dragged down demand in the post-cycle; The competition in the white goods industry has intensified, and the overall profit margin has suffered; The pace of state-owned enterprise reform is not as fast as expected.