Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that Guotai Junan released a research report saying that in 2024, the home appliance sector will grasp two main lines: 1) domestic sales, look for sub-categories with clear production capacity and optimized competition pattern, and tap enterprises with a better layout at the "quality-price ratio" consumption level;2) In terms of export sales, it is expected that independent brands will be better than OEM overseas, and growth categories will have more competitive advantages.
Guotai Junan's main views are as follows:
1.Review 2023: Domestic sales continue the prisoner's dilemma, and export sales lay the growth momentum
In 2023, the domestic sales of the industry will show a weak recovery trend, and the overall "four apprentice dilemma" will be staged, and the competition pattern is the core reason for the differentiation of the performance of various enterprises.
2.Looking forward to 2024: the original framework has reached the bottom, and domestic and foreign sales grasp the two main lines
In 2024, the home appliance sector will grasp two main lines: 1) domestic sales, look for sub-categories with clear production capacity and optimized competition pattern, and tap enterprises with better layout at the consumption level of "quality-price ratio";2) In terms of export sales, it is expected that independent brands will be better than OEM overseas, and growth categories will have more competitive advantages.
3.Valuation: The worst has passed
At present, the valuation pressure of the sector mainly comes from the outflow of foreign capital, and the holdings of domestic capital 03 Gongmu have rebounded from 01. Industry valuations are currently in a historical position, and further significant declines are unlikely. Long-term capital guidance and the increase in the proportion of social security to ** asset allocation are expected to promote the allocation value of the home appliance sector (such as large white electricity).
4.Investment advice: It may be suppressed first and then raised
1) Overseas layout: optimistic about the global market share of companies with perfect overseas independent brand layout, 2) Layout cost performance & sinking: domestic sales focus on cost performance and sinking layout of related targets, 3) Stable and high dividends: under the expectation of dividend yield, white electricity has allocation value;4) Cross-border**: Parts are expanded to new energy vehicles & robots & energy storage.
5.Risk Warning
The risk of fluctuation of raw materials and the risk of intensified competition in the industry.