Foreword:In June 2021, Wang Delun, Chief Strategy Analyst of Industrial **, switched to Industrial Securities Asset Management, and in September 2022, he began to manage the FOF product - Industrial Securities Asset Management Golden Kirin for 3 monthsA, opening a precedent for sell-side transformation into FOF investment. The shortcomings of macro strategists are in the first, and the large types of asset allocation, general trend research and judgment, style, and industry allocation involved in FOF investment are all better at strategic analysts. Personally, I am more interested in the practical effect of strategic thinking in FOF investment, and I have been paying attention to it since before Wang Delun managed FOF, and now Wang Delun has been managing FOF for more than a year, although the time is still relatively short, but I still want to do some combing for follow-up.
Wang Delun has won a lot of new wealth, Golden Bull Awards, and crystal ball awards in his 7-year strategy career, and is a well-known strategy analyst in the industry, and he is good at general trend research and judgment, industry research and other directions, such as Wang Delun was clearly bullish on the market at the beginning of 2019 and wrote the research report "Layout Wangchun**"; At the beginning of 2020, the research report "Strategists Looking for Tenbagger in the New Energy Vehicle Chain" was released, and the banner was clearly bullish on new energy.
According to previous interviews, Wang Delun has introducedFOF Five Forces Strategy Configuration System, including to:Broad asset allocationcentered on sexual opportunities, as well as toStyle configuration, industry configuration, ** screening, and equity timingSexual opportunity for the four cardinal points. I have also shared the advantages of strategists investing in FOF".First, the adjustment of the allocation ratio of major types of assets is more flexible; second, there are certain advantages in the research and judgment of the general trend and the selection of timing; the third is the advantage of style judgment; Fourth, the advantage of industry selection; Fifth, the advantage of choice, the manager and manager have an in-depth understanding.
1. Asset allocation: concentrated in A-share equity assets, multi-asset allocation is not obvious. According to the ** position details revealed in the semi-annual and annual reports, Wang Delun's asset allocation strategy is mainly inclined to equity assets. Specifically, its investment focus is concentrated in the A** market, and it also moderately participates in the Hong Kong ** market, in addition to a small number of bonds** and ** ETFs. In the past year, many investment opportunities have emerged in overseas markets, but Wang Delun has not shown a global investment vision and diversified allocation ideas.
2. Research and judgment of the general trend: keen perception of market changes, but the implementation effect is not obvious. According to the ** periodic report of the operational review,Wang Delun's adjustment in equity ** is relatively flexible:In March 2023, the company first reduced its equity** when overseas risk events were frequent, and then added back its equity** after the risk event landed; In the second half of 2023, we will reduce overweight** when the SSE is 3,300 points, and increase the proportion of equity assets after a series of policies to maintain the market have been introduced. There is no **adjustment in the fourth quarter, I guess it may be that the market is down, the equity ** is relatively full, and there is no room for maneuver. Judging from the timing of the adjustment, the rhythm feels good, but from the perspective of the effect of rebalancing, the impact on the net value is not too obvious, and Wang Delun has also reflected on the reduction of 3300 points in the quarterly report:The magnitude and speed of the reduction were slightly insufficient.
The effect of transaction execution is not obvious, which may be related to the market performance last year, the market amplitude is limited, and even if the judgment is correct, the benefits that can be brought by timing are relatively limited. In addition, Wang Delun may not have fully formed a complete investment loop from research to trading. To quote a phrase from the thought steel seal".The formation of a trading logic is only from 0 1, but to complete the transaction it needs to be from 1 100From market judgment to transaction judgment, there are too many variables and constraints, which is a big problem for all investors, and Wang Delun may need some time to adapt.
3. Style judgment and industry selection: Participate in a wide range of industries, and the style is more inclined to growth. According to the operation review and position of the ** regular report, we found that the ** has been involved in many fields such as information innovation, medicine, new energy, CSI 300 and Hong Kong stocks at the early stage of the position. Thanks to a broad industry perspective, the ** covers a wide range of industries. However, this diversification has also led to underinvestment in certain sectors. Taking the AI market in the first quarter of 2023 as an example, although ** has been involved in artificial intelligence-related fields, the net value has suffered a slight drawdown due to the small proportion of allocation.
According to the style analysis, the ** has always maintained a high investment ratio in the growth style. This strategy is related to Wang Delun's market judgment at the beginning of 2023, when he believed that the market in 2023 will present a pattern of "blue chips on stage, growth and singing", in fact, the growth style in 2023 will collectively underperform the value style, of which **growth**2009%, small cap growth **1059%。
In 2023, Wang Delun's style judgment errors are more obviousIn 2023, Wang Delun's style judgment errors will be obvious, which will also lead to the performance of the ** underperforming benchmark and the same as the partial stock mixed ** index.
4. **Choice: Position ** is more well-known, and pays more attention to the stability of the manager's style. A closer look at all the positions of the FOF shows that the ** it holds has a high reputation. According to the content of the previous interview, Wang Delun attaches more importance to the clarity and stability of the investment and research framework of the manager, pays more attention to the stability of the manager's style and the sustainability of long-term performance, and is not keen on mining dark horses. In addition, he has a wide range of use of ETF products and prefers to opt for lower fees**. For example, in the early days of its establishment, it held Harvest CSI 300 ETF; However, by the time of the Q4 2023 report, it switched to the lower-fee E Fund CSI 300 ETF, which has a total expense ratio (management fee plus custody fee) of just 02%。
On the whole, Wang Delun's strategic thinking has not shown obvious advantages in the practice of FOF investment, which is related to the unilateral equity market, few investment opportunities, and short management time. In addition, Wang Delun's strategic thinking needs to be better integrated with investment decision-making to form a closed loop from research to trading.