The Philippines is once again showing signs of a dispute in the South China Sea.
In addition to the broken ship that sent people to trespass on Scarborough Shoal and try to occupy Second Thomas Shoal and send supplies, Philippine adviser Año recently issued a statement in which he made groundless accusations against China's claims on Scarborough Shoal, apparently continuing to provoke China. Before we can act, former Rodrigo Duterte in the Philippines is the first to strike.
At a press conference in Davao City, Duterte proposed the "Mindanao Independence Movement," which aims to make Mindanao separate from the Philippines and become an independent country, according to Philippine reports. Duterte made it clear that this was not an insurrection or a coup d'état, nor would it provoke bloodshed, and that it would follow the procedure set by the United Nations, that is, through an independence referendum, and that local residents would decide whether to become independent or not.
Duterte's idea is closely related to the conflict between him and Marcos Jr., and the South China Sea policy is one of the main differences between the two. In Duterte's view, the Philippines, as a Southeast Asian country, should not choose too clearly a political position between China and the United States, but should balance diplomacy and safeguard national interests according to the principle of non-alignment. Duterte is unhappy with Marcos Jr.'s arbitrary partiality in South China Sea policy, so he has been trying to change Marcos Jr.'s position.
After several rounds of outright fighting, Duterte finally invited Marcos Jr. for a face-to-face conversation last month.
After the talks, the contradictions between the two sides became public, and they even insulted each other in public and broke up completely. Duterte's "independence movement" was not an impulsive, deliberate decision. He appointed Alvarez, an ally, as the leader of the independence movement, hoping to steer Mindanao on a Singapore-style path of independent development.
This decision shows that Marcos Jr.'s South China Sea policy is unpopular and has taken a crooked path. It is uncertain whether the independence movement in Mindanao will succeed, but perhaps this is Duterte's negotiating tactic to increase his bargaining chips. Let's stay tuned to the development of this event.
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