The 2024 Spring Festival holiday has ended. During the A-share market closure, Hong Kong stocks opened for 3 trading days in the Year of the Dragon, and they were happy to mention the "three consecutive rises".
As of Friday, February 16** Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index surged 248% at 1633996 points, up 3 in 3 trading days77%；The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 371% at 334273 points, up 6 in 3 trading days89%；The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 273% at 555886 points, up 4 in 3 trading days78%。In terms of focus, WuXi Biologics rose 1206%, Longfor Group rose 1022%, ENN Energy rose 933%, leading the blue chips.
For the "three consecutive rises" of Hong Kong stocks in the Year of the Dragon, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source, believes that the main reason is that it has been driven by many favorable policies, and the continuous rise of the A** market before the Spring Festival holiday has driven the entire market sentiment to rebound. Before the Spring Festival holiday, the market ushered in a series of favorable policies, **No, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks bottomed out**, and joined forces**.
The A-share market opens on February 19 (Monday), can it continue the positive changes at the beginning of the Year of the Dragon with Hong Kong stocks? Can the sectors with strong performance of Hong Kong stocks in the past three trading days be replicated in the relevant sectors of A-shares?
On 14 February 2024, HKEX held the opening ceremony of the first trading day of the Lunar New Year at the Hong Kong Financial City Hall.
Film and television concept holiday pulls up
Looking forward to 2024, managers have also become relatively optimistic. Zhang Feng, the manager of Wells Fargo China's small and medium-sized cap, believes that the first quarter of 2024 is basically a state of waiting for the Hong Kong market to come to the extreme, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is low and has experienced a long time, and some negative factors have also been relatively fully reflected. In addition, a potential U.S. recession is also a boot that has not landed.
The industry generally believes that after a long period of time, Hong Kong stocks currently have a high margin of safety, especially under the expectation of improved liquidity, Hong Kong stocks are expected to usher in a double click of earnings and valuation repair**.
If the "three consecutive rises" of Hong Kong stocks last week had a linkage factor with A-shares before the Spring Festival holiday, then from the perspective of popular sectors, the strong sectors of Hong Kong stocks in the past three trading days, accompanied by new information feedback, are likely to be replicated in A-shares?
Affected by the hot sales of the Spring Festival holiday, Hong Kong stocks of film and television concepts continued to rise, with China Literature Group exceeding 17% in the past three trading days**, and Straw Bear Entertainment, Lehua Entertainment, Maoyan Entertainment, Alibaba Pictures, etc. followed suit.
According to the latest data from Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 13:33 on February 17, the total box office of the Spring Festival holiday stalls in 2024 will reach 782.6 billion yuan, breaking the 78A box office record of 2.5 billion yuan. "Hot and Hot", "Flying Life 2" and "Bear Infested: Reversing Time and Space" temporarily ranked the top three in the box office list. According to public information, Xinli Media, a subsidiary of China Literature Group, is an important investor in "Hot and Hot".
Hong Kong stocks have taken the lead in tapping China Literature Group in the Year of the Dragon, and relatively speaking, the A-share targets that benefit more from the Spring Festival holiday will most likely be mined by funds from all walks of life.
**Funding supports technology
On February 16, GDS rose 1442%, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30% since the beginning of the dragon; Zhong'an** rose 1043%, Ping An Good Doctor rose 1030%, leading the gains of the Hang Seng TECH Index constituents. In addition, a number of chips, AI (artificial intelligence) and new energy vehicle sectors related to the ** soared. Shanghai Fudan rose 822%, Kingsoft rose 784%, SenseTime rose 625%, Xpeng Motors rose 593%, Li Auto rose 576%, BYD Electronics rose 528%。
In the accelerated bottoming out at the end of 2023, most of the Hong Kong technology stocks fell into a deep adjustment, and long-term funds such as public offerings took the opportunity to increase their positions.
According to the Haitong** research report, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the public offering ** mainly increased its position in the artificial intelligence, biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors in Hong Kong stocks. Among them, the artificial intelligence sector focused on adding positions in Kingdee International and China Literature Group; In the biotechnology sector, Akeso Biotech and GenScript Biotech have been added; In the new energy vehicle sector, Great Wall Motor and Li Auto-W have increased their positions.
Wind data shows that 43** stocks in the whole market have increased their positions in Kingdee International in the fourth quarter of 2023, including E Fund Hong Kong Stock Connect Growth managed by Chen Hao, Harvest Frontier Technology managed by Wang Guizhong and other products.
Wang Guizhong said that he is optimistic about the direction of artificial intelligence and digitalization in the long term, and this round of AIGC (generative artificial intelligence) will also deeply affect the software industry and accelerate the digital process, and the current valuation of the sector is still at a historically low level.
Medical and biomedical rose
According to the observation of the reporter of "Daily Economic News", on February 16, the medical industry was strong, and Minimally Invasive Medical rose by 2427%, up 22% in 3 trading days, and Spire Health rose about 21% for the week; The biopharmaceutical sector also showed weakness, with WuXi Biologics, Innovent Biologics, and Tigermed following up sharply.
For the biomedical and medical sector, there are two main factors in the industry analysis. First, it is bearish digestion and overfalling. The pharmaceutical and medical sector has been continuously suppressed by multiple negative factors, and now the relevant negative is either refuted or digested by the market. In this context, the panic selling caused by excessive pessimism also has the operational demand to take advantage of the market recovery to cover the operation. Second, the fundamentals and policies of the industry are good. Since 2023, multiple departments have successively introduced relevant policies to promote the combination of medical insurance and commercial insurance, which is a very important factor for the development of pharmaceutical innovation.
Sun Yuanyuan, chief of Industrial Medicine, said in a live broadcast recently that the open source of commercial insurance and the smaller price reduction of medical insurance mean that the insurance level is constantly optimizing the pattern, which will further expand the payment side and bring more incremental demand to the pharmaceutical industry.
Sun Yuanyuan believes that China's pharmaceutical companies have quite bright spots in international transactions, especially in emerging technologies, emerging targets, differentiated layouts, and biomedical technologies with early layout. In the future, there will be more breakthroughs in the field of some precision manufacturing high-end equipment, and innovative devices will also accelerate the export of innovative devices, and we can pay attention to domestic substitution with large market space, including electrophysiology, endoscopy, IVD (in vitro diagnostic products) and other subdivisions, which are very important development directions.
Liquor is strong in the peak consumption season.
The Spring Festival is the peak season for liquor consumption, and the liquor sector of Hong Kong stocks took the lead in strengthening. Zhenjiu Li Du rose 17 on February 1603% to close at 8HK$66, with a maximum increase of 2189%。According to wind information, the liquor sector index rose 1657%, the domestic retail index rose 858%, leading the index of various concept sectors.
For the spring ** of liquor stocks, brokerages have long been expected. The research report of Zhejiang businessmen pointed out that the peak season of terminal sales during the Spring Festival is coming, and the feedback of terminal cigarette hotels around the country is gradually improving, and the peak is slightly delayed compared with previous years. Considering the outstanding performance of the Spring Festival transportation data in 2024, the arrival of the homecoming tide may be expected to boost the terminal liquor sales.
Zheshang ** said that the liquor sector has both offense and defense, and in the context of the current RRR cut + targeted interest rate cut, it is optimistic about the good opportunities for the allocation of the liquor sector catalyzed by the Spring Festival dynamic sales, taking into account fundamental thinking and trading thinking, and the two leading liquor sectors are the first to be launched at the bottom; At the same time, it is recommended to have better sales during the Spring Festival and strong performance certainty in 2024; It also pays attention to high-growth targets.
Led by liquor stocks, the large consumption sector is also full of efforts, and Sun Art Retail rose 1026%, China Resources Beer rose 914%, Zhou Black Duck rose 819%, Mengniu Dairy rose 744%。
During the Spring Festival holiday, domestic consumption data continued to improve. According to data released by Tongcheng Travel, from the first day to the fourth day of the Lunar New Year in 2024, the number of hotel bookings in major counties across the country increased by more than 120% year-on-year. In terms of airport shipping, in the first nine days of the Spring Festival, civil aviation passenger traffic increased by double digits compared with 2019, taking the lead in hitting a record high.
National Business Daily.