The People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce that the loan market ** interest rate (LPR) on February 20, 2024 is: 1-year LPR is 345%, and LPR for more than 5 years is 395%。The former remained unchanged from the previous period, while the latter decreased by 25 basis points from the previous period.
If calculated based on a commercial loan amount of 1 million yuan, a loan of 30 years, and equal principal and interest repayment, the LPR will decrease by 25 basis points and the monthly payment will decrease by 1448 yuan, and the cumulative monthly payment for 30 years will be reduced by 520,000 yuan.
On the whole, the reduction exceeded market expectations, is the largest single historical decline in LPR of more than 5 years, China has a total of 8 LPR reductions of more than 5 years, but the past reduction is generally 5-15 basis points. This also means that the largest cycle of interest rate cuts in history has begun.
The decline in mortgage interest rates has always been regarded as an effective means of regulating and controlling the real estate economy, and from the perspective of 2009 and 2015, the effect is indeed obvious. Stimulated by the interest rate at that time, housing prices in many areas directly "took off".
But now, it is still unknown whether the decline in mortgage interest rates can have an effect, and the important reason for the current tepid real estate boom is not the lack of funds, butConsumption expectations are not highMany people think that the real estate economy will not improve for a while, so they would rather keep their money in the bank than buy a house again.
At the end of 2023, the balance of household deposits in China reached 1369 trillion, an increase of 16 in 1 year6 trillion. This is a staggering statistic, with household deposits quadrupling corporate deposits, and household deposits growing much faster than corporate deposits and other deposits.
According to the data given by the banks, only 2% of depositors have 80% of their deposits, which means that 98% of depositors have only 20% of their deposits.
A small number of people hold more wealth, and most ordinary families may only have tens of thousands of yuan, or even less than 10,000 yuan. Especially in the past few years, some young families have not to say that they have savings, and it is not easy not to go into debt. A house empties the wallets of three generations, and although the mortgage interest rate on the house has been lowered, it is still a high level for ordinary residents.
On the other hand, there is a background in the hot real estate market, that is, ** has been limiting the purchase of houses, and the information released is that housing prices will rise, individuals should not buy too much, to avoid the formation of a "crowd effect" to promote real estate prices, and now not only is there no limit to purchase, some areas require civil servants to take the lead in buying houses, some consumers may be fined for early repayment of mortgages, and some bank liquidated damages are 1 of the principal amount added5%, with some additional months of interest.
As people's expectations for the future of the property market change from **to**, the enthusiasm for buying a house will also drop significantly. Even if mortgage rates fall, it won't be enough to motivate people to buy homes, because the incentives from lower interest rates may not be enough to offset future home prices**. The spread of panic has led to the decline of the whole society for the real estate economy, and the so-called buying up and not buying down has naturally discouraged capital.
However, the trend of the economy is also a metaphysics, just like **real estate, how many can accurately ** trend? Even if the vast majority of experts and experts interpret it in the style of "blind man touching the elephant", it seems reasonable, but it doesn't rely on feeling? Because of investing in real estate, are there still fewer "big understandings" in the ** prison?
The revitalization of the property market depends on the promotion of the whole society, and when this force will emerge, it is still unknown.