If you buy a house in 2024, will it be "ready to go" in 5 years?
In recent years, due to the gradual increase in the rescue measures introduced by the local government, there have been some ups and downs in the property market, and the controversy over whether to buy a house has become more and more serious. Some people advocate being resolute at the current low level, because they are afraid that in five years, if it rises again, the cost of buying a house will increase significantly. On the other hand, there are also some people who are waiting and seeing, they feel that buying a house now is very risky, and it is better to wait for the change.
For this difference, the famous entrepreneur Wang Shi once said that with the easing of currency around the world, inflationary pressure will gradually appear, which will impact the ** of daily necessities. Wang Shi did not clearly indicate the direction of **, but he expressed the direction of ** very clearly. Let's take a look at Wang Shi's post:
1. Many countries are now implementing a loose currency in order to recover quickly and promote their development;
2. Excess currency will cause prices to rise, resulting in import inflation;
3. Using a ** to represent pigs and real estate is actually to say that the house will rise.
However, we also need to approach this issue sensibly. The real estate is related to a variety of factors such as the level of economic development, policy regulation and population flow. So, the decision to buy a home cannot be made in a hurry based on just one or one personal opinion. For the average family, it is more important to combine their own economic conditions, the need to buy a house, and the risks they take.
At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to the development trend of real estate and related information, and make corresponding adjustments in a timely manner. During this period, you should always maintain a rational investment mentality, and do not blindly follow and panic**. Buying a home is a long-term and important investment that needs to be carefully considered in order to get the most out of it.
Wang Shi predicts that ** will ** grow with the improvement of ** as Wang Shi predicts? The author believes that the rise and fall of prices do not depend entirely on prices, and that the rise in prices does not necessarily mean the rise in prices, as evidenced by the downward trend in the last two years. Therefore, in order to conduct an in-depth analysis of the development trend of the real estate market, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis and evaluation of the current real estate market.
1. Supply is greater than demand, which is an important reason for determining real estate, and its logic is deeply rooted between demand and demand.
In the past 20 years, real estate ** is like getting on a high-speed train, constantly refreshing the historical record. A lot of people are convinced of this. However, it is not just real estate that is driving the rise in real estate**, as the rising construction costs and the strong demand for housing are the dual driving factors.
For example, in 1978, the average urban population in our country was only 36 square meters of houses, but during this period, there were more than 8 million vacant houses, which fully illustrates the serious lack of housing resources. In 1998, China's commercial housing was generally marketized, and residents' housing demand was released in large quantities like a flood, resulting in a short-term shortage of housing, resulting in a sharp increase in real estate.
The market-oriented reform of housing implemented in 1998 not only greatly promoted the development of the housing market, but also greatly promoted the prosperity of China's real estate industry. Since then, China's real estate industry has developed rapidly, many residential houses have sprung up like mushrooms after a rain, and the area of cities and towns has become larger and larger. However, with the acceleration of urbanization, a large number of farmers have moved to the cities, which has increased the demand for housing. Therefore, although China's real estate industry is developing rapidly, China's housing market has been facing the problem of shortage of housing resources for a long time, and due to the imbalance between supply and demand, housing continues to exist. Coupled with the help of speculators, house prices have risen even more than most people's incomes.
Time flies, and in the blink of an eye, our country's real estate industry has gone through twenty years. At present, the shortage of housing resources in China has been well alleviated. According to the survey of the ** banking and statistical departments, the number of urban households in China has reached 9686%, with an average of 1. per household5 households, the per capita residential construction area of the city has exceeded more than 40 square meters.
As the real estate market continues to tighten, the problem of insufficient supply in the real estate market has gradually emerged. Especially in the case that some investors are pessimistic about the direction of the house**, they not only no longer hold the house, but also a large number of it**. According to relevant data, in March, second-hand housing transactions in the United States increased by 86% compared with the previous month**, almost double that of February. In addition, since March 2021, the number of domestic second-hand housing transactions has continued to climb, but the transaction volume has shown a downward trend, indicating that second-hand housing transactions are under increasing pressure. Now, in Beijing, Zhengzhou, Harbin, Nanjing, Wuhan, Chengdu, Chongqing, these places, the number of listings is more than 100,000, and in some places, the number of listings has reached 150,000, of which the number of listings in Chongqing is also more than 200,000.
As in the secondary market, new homes are experiencing the same problems. By the end of 2022, the cumulative stock of new dwellings in 100 major cities reached 5100 million square meters. What's even more worrying is that as the stock increases, the sales of new homes are gradually increasing. Some data show that at present, the supply of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in China is greater than demand, and the excessive supply of housing resources is becoming increasingly severe.
2. More and more people think that the real estate market prospects are not good, and they sell their houses, which affects the selling price of new houses.
Recently, a friend who works as a real estate agent told me that today's buyers are less and less interested in new homes and more and more like to buy second-hand homes. Why is that? Although second-hand real estate agents generally only have 2% of the house, compared to the new house, this is already very cheap. Although the process of buying and selling second-hand homes is cumbersome and can take two to three months, the house is still willing to introduce customers to the new home.
In order to stimulate the sales of new homes, real estate developers are offering attractive commissions, prompting them to sell new homes to buyers. But nowadays, buyers are more inclined to buy second-hand homes. This is mainly due to the fact that second-hand home prices are cheaper than new homes in many large cities. This is mainly due to the fact that many people think that the house cannot be sold, so there is a second home. Surprisingly, many of them were newly bought and no one lived in them at all.
In the past, the enthusiasm for buying a home was high, largely due to the relatively cheap price of existing homes. However, such ** often leads to false publicity, quality problems, delivery delays, and even failures. However, a completely different situation has emerged in the second-hand housing market today. As the transaction volume of second-hand homes continues to rise, the competition in the property market is intensifying, and developers are racing to cut prices in order to get rid of them as soon as possible. As a result, second-hand home prices continue to rise, and some homeowners do not hesitate to pay intermediary fees to attract buyers.
Therefore, for new real estate projects with quality problems, delivery delays, unfinished and other problems, even if the developer raises the price, buyers may not buy it. As the second-hand housing market continues to grow, it may be time for developers to rethink their marketing strategies.
After analyzing the causes of this phenomenon, it is not easy to see that the impact of supply and capital is the main factor affecting the trend of real estate, and the rise in construction costs may not necessarily lead to real estate. Instead, it should start from two aspects: its own development potential and the supply and demand relationship of the property market.
Represented by the first, second, third and first-tier hot cities, they have unique location conditions in terms of economy, culture and resources, and have a strong attraction to the flow of foreign population, and the demand for housing is also increasing. When there is an imbalance between supply and demand, the house** will naturally rise, showing an upward trend. However, in some third- and fourth-tier cities, due to the decrease in population, the demand for housing will also decrease, so **will gradually stabilize or even **.
Therefore, when studying the trend of real estate, we must start from a more comprehensive and profound perspective and include all aspects of the elements, so as to get more accurate and complete results, rather than being blinded by a certain indicator. Through the analysis of the changes in the real estate market, it can help us better understand the development trend of the real estate market, so as to guide us to invest in the real estate market.
Supply and demand and capital determine the direction of the real estate market, and without money, without people, then even less!