After a lapse of 6 months, the loan market ** interest rate (LPR) released on the 20th ushered in another adjustment, and the LPR with a maturity of more than 5 years fell by 25 basis points to 395%。After the Spring Festival, the "interest rate cut" will help drive the comprehensive financing cost of the society to continue to decline, stimulate the effective demand of the real economy, and release a positive signal that the financial sector will make a steady start.
The decline is larger, releasing a positive signal of steady growth
On the 20th, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Lending Center to announce that the one-year LPR is 345%, and LPR for more than 5 years is 395%。
Screenshot of the official website of the People's Bank of China.
This time, there was an asymmetric adjustment of LPR of different maturities, with the 1-year LPR "holding still", and the LPR of more than 5 years falling by 25 basis points compared with the previous period.
As an important reference for LPR**, on the 18th of this month, the People's Bank of China launched a 500 billion yuan medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation, and the winning interest rate was 25%, the same as the previous time.
The 1-year LPR was unchanged, matching the unadjusted MLF rate this month. Dong Ximiao, chief researcher of Zhaolian, believes that the LPR of more than 5 years has dropped to 395%, the decline is significantly beyond market expectations, which will help promote the reduction of comprehensive social financing costs and further improve financial support for the real economy.
In the opinion of experts, the large decline in LPR for more than 5 years is related to the effect of the previous policy.
Since 2023, major banks have lowered deposit interest rates several times, and some small and medium-sized banks have also followed suit, and the cost of commercial banks' liabilities has decreased. On January 25, 2024, the re-lending and re-discounting rates for supporting agriculture and small enterprises will be lowered by 025 percentage points, the RRR cut on February 5 released about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity, which is conducive to reducing the cost of bank funds. This has increased the motivation for the LPR to be lowered by points.
Dong Ximiao believes that the sharp decline in LPR after the Spring Festival sends a clear signal of monetary policy to stabilize growth and promote development, which will further promote the decline of financing costs in the real economy, help boost market confidence and expectations, and help the economy achieve a good start and sustained recovery in 2024.
The lpr trend chart of the official website of the People's Bank of China.
Supporting entities to help stabilize investment and promote consumption
LPR with a term of more than 5 years is the main reference benchmark for the pricing of medium and long-term loans for enterprises and personal housing loans, which is directly related to the financing costs and financial expenditures of enterprises and residents. Experts believe that the decline in LPR for more than 5 years is more than expected, which will effectively play a role in stabilizing investment and promoting consumption.
Judging from last year's situation, in 2023, China's 1-year LPR and 5-year LPR will decrease by 02 and 01 percentage point to guide the weighted average interest rate of corporate loans to 3 in the current year88%, down 029 percentage points, the lowest level in history.
The decline in LPR for more than 5 years has released a clear signal of steady growth and policy strengthening of the property market. Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that the decline in LPR for more than 5 years has led to a further decline in the medium and long-term loan interest rates of enterprises, stimulating effective demand for enterprises and further expanding investment.
Experts believe that the LPR with a term of more than 5 years has dropped to below 4% for the first time, which will help further boost residents' housing consumption and promote the steady development of the real estate market.
Last year, China implemented tools such as the loan support plan for guaranteed delivery of buildings, the rental housing loan support plan, and the special re-loan for real estate enterprise bailouts. At the beginning of this year, it launched financial measures to support the development of the housing rental market, established a coordination mechanism for urban real estate financing, and introduced new regulations on operating property loans.
Dong Ximiao said that after the LPR of more than 5 years is lowered by 25 basis points, the lower limit of the national first home loan interest rate policy will be adjusted to 3 with the LPR75%, the interest rate of new mortgages will be reduced, and the interest rate of existing mortgages will also be adjusted on the repricing date, so as to reduce the interest expense of residents' mortgages and promote investment and consumption. At the same time, we will better cooperate with the recent policies to stabilize the real estate market, support the steady and healthy development of the real estate market, and consolidate the momentum of economic recovery.
Relying on the front, the financial stability started to continue to increase
The plan of the year lies in the spring. Macroeconomic policies should be carried out in advance, with appropriate efforts, and the results of the policies should be reflected as soon as possible.
At present, there is still room for the recovery of domestic demand, and the LPR downturn will help fully tap the potential of domestic demand and expand effective demand. Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that the key point of "interest rate cut" reflects the financial sector's efforts to increase support for the expansion of domestic demand.
Since the beginning of the year, many places have sounded the clarion call for the start of construction, a large number of major engineering projects have started construction, and the consumer markets such as entertainment, tourism, and catering have continued to ......The financial sector has also stepped up support to fuel the economic start to a good start.
The financial support for the economic recovery is directly reflected in the financial data. Data released by the People's Bank of China showed that China's RMB loans increased by 4 in January92 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 386 trillion yuan.
Experts believe that China's monetary policy will increase counter-cyclical adjustment and make efforts to move forward, the macroeconomic regulation and control policy will be further effective, and the economic recovery is expected to be further consolidated.
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