Data map. CCTV Beijing, February 12 (Reporter Cui Jian) In 2023, the investment performance will be outstanding. According to data released by the World ** Association, the total global ** demand will rise to 4,899 tons in 2023, setting a new record for the year. The average gold price in 2023 reached 1940 per ounce$54, 8% from the previous year**. However, since the beginning of this year, the international gold price has been fluctuating in a narrow range between $2,000 and $2,080 per ounce, and the performance has been flat. Why hasn't gold regained its momentum from last year's record highs? Is there still room for growth in the future?
At the beginning of 2024, the dollar-denominated international *** came out of a wave***, but overall** still remained above $2,000 per ounce. As of the 9th, the New York Mercantile Exchange's April delivery closed at 2038 per ounce$70, a decrease of 045%, with a weekly decline of 073%。
Why hasn't gold regained its momentum from last year's record highs? Liu Dongbo, a senior researcher at the SDIC Anxin Research Institute, believes that the recent narrow range of international gold prices stems from the market's fierce game over when the Fed will cut interest rates.
Liu Dongbo said: "With the release of U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve's statement, expectations are constantly swinging, and we see ** also following suit**. According to the Fed Watch tool, the probability of a rate cut in March has fallen from a previous peak of more than 85% to less than 20% now. The market is now gradually rejecting the expectation of a rate cut in the previous quarter. In this case, the dollar, including the US Treasury yields, is **, which also suppresses the performance of ***. But we also see that in this process, the decline of ** is very limited. Every time whether it is economic data or the Fed's speech, it is a dive, and then a slow recovery, showing that it is very resistant. ”
Since 2023, global demand for gold purchases has continued to be strong, and there have been obvious signs that central banks are actively increasing their allocation** reserves. According to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange on February 7, as of the end of January 2024, China's ** reserves were 72.19 million ounces, an increase of 320,000 ounces from the end of December 2023, marking the 15th consecutive month of increasing ** reserves. According to the previous data of the World ** Association, the global central bank net purchase in the third quarter of last year hit the third highest in history, and the global central bank gold purchase demand last year may exceed 750 tons, much higher than the average of the previous decade of central bank net **.
Will gold remain high and upside in 2024? According to UBS**, it will reach $2,200 per ounce in 2024. Jiang Shu, general manager of the industry department of Shanghai Shanjin Industry, expects that the gold price may show a trend in the first quarter of this year. "In the first quarter of this year, both domestic and international gold prices will show a trend, but once this round is completed, the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year is still very strong, so the overall assessment of the last three quarters is to show an upward trend. ”
Liu Dongbo predicts that this year's trend will continue to be strong, and "it is only a matter of time before a new record high is created."
Liu Dongbo said: "From the overall situation this year, the Fed's policy shift is a high probability event, and the key game now is when to cut interest rates." In addition, from the perspective of the global economic situation and the geopolitical game in various places, it is very beneficial to the upward space in the future. Therefore, in terms of medium and long-term judgment, we believe that the trend of ** strong will continue this year, and it is only a matter of time before a new all-time high is created. Under this judgment, we believe that every ** is a better buying point, and for individual investors, it is possible to win a medium and long-term income through regular investment, which we believe is a suitable strategy. ”
Jiang Shu advised investors to remain rational and wait patiently for the timing of gold prices.
Whether it is an allocation investor or a transaction-oriented investor, you can patiently wait for the first quarter of the international and domestic gold prices to appear more obvious, and then choose to intervene in this market. Jiang Shu said.