In the context of the deep adjustment of the global economic pattern and the increasingly fierce international competition, the global development trend in 2024 will show many new changes. The overall growth rate of emerging market and developing economies continues to be faster than that of developed economies, global economic governance has entered a period of change, the digital economy has become an important driving force for world economic development, and the adjustment of the global industrial chain has shown a trend of diversification and regionalization. At the same time, risk factors such as geopolitical conflicts, energy and food shortages, and rising inflation are also affecting the stability and development of the global economy.
Emerging market and developing economies will continue to grow at a faster pace. As the economy gradually stabilizes and recovers, emerging market and developing economies will unleash huge development potential. According to the International Monetary Organization, the overall economic growth rate of emerging market and developing economies is expected to reach 39%, an increase of 03 percentage points. Among them, the economic growth momentum of the BRICS countries is strong, and the economic growth rate of India, Brazil and other countries is significantly faster than that of developed economies.
However, global economic governance faces many challenges. In terms of addressing climate change and achieving sustainable development, there are great differences in policies among countries, and it is difficult to form effective synergies. The International Monetary Fund (IMO) warns that fiscal sustainability faces many challenges, and that high debt levels could lead to a lack of fiscal space, which in turn could affect the global economic recovery. In addition, global economic governance is also facing issues such as the reform of international organizations and the improvement of international cooperation mechanisms.
The digital economy has become an important driving force for the development of the world economy. With the rapid development of technologies such as the Internet, big data, and artificial intelligence, the digital economy is booming around the world. According to the International Data Corporation**, the global digital economy will reach 47 percent by 2025$5 trillion, accounting for 45% of GDP. The digital economy will become an important engine for economic growth, and countries have increased investment in digital infrastructure construction, technological innovation, and data governance to seize the commanding heights of the development of the digital economy.
The adjustment of the global industrial chain shows a trend of diversification and regionalization. Affected by protectionism, geopolitics and other factors, the global industrial chain is accelerating the adjustment, showing a trend of diversification and regionalization. Countries have strengthened economic and trade cooperation with neighboring countries and regions to promote the process of regional economic integration. At the same time, countries also pay attention to strengthening the independent and controllable ability of the domestic industrial chain and reducing the dependence on external chains. In this context, the global industrial chain will form a more diversified, more stable and more reliable partnership.
However, global development also faces many risks and challenges. First, geopolitical conflicts pose a threat to global economic stability and development. The continuous fermentation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has not only had a huge impact on the European economy, but also had a serious impact on the global chain and system. In addition, tensions between China and the United States have also adversely affected global economic governance and investment.
Secondly, the shortage of energy and food** is also affecting the stability and development of the global economy. With the global population growth and consumption levels rising, the demand for energy and food is growing, while climate change, resource scarcity and other issues are exacerbating the pressure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the shortage of energy** could lead to a slowdown in global economic growth or even a recession.
Finally, rising inflation also poses a serious challenge to the global economy. Affected by factors such as the epidemic and geopolitical conflicts, global inflation continues to rise. Central banks are tightening monetary policy to fight inflation, but it can also raise the risk of a recession. The International Monetary Organization has warned that a slowdown in global economic growth could exacerbate inflationary pressures and pose a long-term threat to the global economy.
To sum up, the global development trend in 2024 will show many new changes, emerging market and developing economies will continue to maintain rapid growth, global economic governance has entered a period of change, and the digital economy has become an important driving force for world economic development. However, global development also faces risks and challenges such as geopolitical conflicts, energy and food shortages, and rising inflation. Countries need to strengthen policy coordination and cooperation to jointly address challenges and promote stable and sustainable development of the global economy. At the same time, emerging market and developing economies also need to strengthen their own capacity building and improve their ability to develop independently to better cope with external risks and challenges. Only in this way can we achieve better development in the context of the in-depth adjustment of the global economic pattern and the increasingly fierce international competition.