At present, the data on the Internet about the number of plum blossoms 5 jiao are unreliable.
However, the data of the 5 corners of the plum blossom can be counted, but the questionnaire can be released through a number of tens of millions of comprehensive WeChat public accounts, at least 2000 sets of national discrete data need to be obtained, and the age of the participants in the questionnaire, the stock of circulating currency, and the stock of the original light volume of each year can be calculated.
However, it is also possible to estimate the stock ratio of the original light volume of the plum blossom 5 jiao coin in each year according to the issuance data of each year, the economic inflation situation of each year and the growth data of per capita income.
The plum blossom 5 jiao coin is rumored on the Internet: about 10 million pieces of circulating products in 91 years, and about 1.6 million pieces of original light products; In 92 years, there are about 40 million to 50 million pieces of circulating products, and about 480,000 pieces of original light products; In 93 years, there are 150-2 million pieces of circulating products, and 12-150,000 pieces of original light products; In 94 years, there are about 25 million pieces of circulating products, and about 7-80,000 pieces of original light products; In 95 years, there are about 300 million products in circulation, and about 1 million original light products; 6000-700000000 pieces of circulating products in 96 years, 15-200,000 pieces of original light products; In 97, there were about 300 million pieces of products in circulation, and about 2 million pieces of original light products; In 98 years, there were about 100 million pieces of circulating products, and about 2.5 million pieces of original light products; In 99 years, there were about 300 million pieces of circulating products, and about 1 million pieces of original light products; In 00, there are about 300 million products in circulation, and about 1 million original light products; In 01, there were about 300 million pieces of products in circulation, and about 1.2 million pieces of original light products.
Regarding the above data on the number of plum blossoms 5 corners on the Internet, the author thinks that there are serious logical problems.
Plum blossom 5 jiao production capacity
According to the China Financial Publishing House's "Contemporary Chinese Banknote Printing and Minting Chronicles 1948-2000", it is mentioned that the production capacity of plum blossom 5 jiao coins in 91-92 is 100 million, although the specific circulation is not mentioned, but the total circulation must not exceed 100 million; After the technical upgrading and transformation of 93-95 years, the production capacity of plum blossom 5 jiao coins is 500 million, and the total circulation must not exceed 500 million in 95 years; In 96 and 97, equipment was introduced, and the production capacity reached 1 billion, presumably the circulation in 97 was about 1 billion; In 98, a mature production line was formed, and until 00, the production capacity reached 2 billion, and it was mentioned that the circulation in 00 was 1 billion.
The economic background in which the plum blossom 5 jiao was issued
The money supply increased by 7 in '91 compared to '9004%, inflation rate 34%；And in '92 the money supply increased by 887%, the circulation of the 5 dime coins in '92 is likely to be higher than the circulation of about 26% in '91 if calculated proportionally. Limited by production capacity, the online circulation in 91 and 92 is about 80 million, and it may also be about 70 million in 91 and 90 million in 92, and this data has a higher degree of confidence.
'93 inflation rate was 147%, the money supply increased by 022%, compared to 97% of the increase in money in '925%。Because of the transformation and upgrading of equipment, the issuance of 93 years declined, in fact, it is better to say that it is because the increase in currency ** is very small, and the overall issuance has declined. The circulation in 93 is about 30 million, and it is possible that the circulation will be lower this year, and the confidence level of this data is high.
The inflation rate in 94 was 24%, and the money supply fell by 10%, that is, not only did not issue new currency in 94, but also circulated 10% of the excess currency in the market, but it did issue 94 plum blossom 5 dimes, normally speaking, the issuance of 94 plum blossom 5 dimes should be less than 93, but the current stock data shows that 93 plum blossom 5 dimes are less than 94 years. It is rumored that the circulation in 94 years is about 50 million, and the confidence level of this data is high.
The inflation rate in 95 is 17%, the money supply is reduced by 5%, and from the data, there will be no new currency issued this year, and the market will further circulate 5%. There is no data on the issuance of plum blossoms in 95 years, but there is a high probability that the circulation of plum blossoms in 95 years will not exceed 500 million.
Inflation rate of 8 in '973%, and the issuance of money increased by 552%。The number of issuances in 97 is about 1 billion, and the data has a high degree of confidence.
The money supply increased by 98 in '9842%, 99 years money supply increased by 986%, 00 money supply increased by 885%, and the money supply increased by 8 in 013%, that is, the above four years of plum blossom 5 jiao not only production capacity of more than 1 billion, from the perspective of money supply data, the probability of issuance is also about 1 billion.
'96 inflation rate was 83%, the money supply increased by 254%。There is no 96-year issuance data on the Internet, but the circulation stock of 96-year-old plum blossom 5 jiao is less than that of 96 years, and the circulation of 96-year-old plum blossom 5-corner is presumably lower than that of 95 years. "Contemporary Chinese Banknote Printing and Minting Chronicles 1948-2000" mentions that in 91-00 years, a total of 51300 million, the cumulative circulation in the first five years is about 7400 million, the issuance in 96 years can be reversed to the issuance of 96 years does not exceed 3900 million, or more than 3 billion in '97-99, it is possible to arrive at a lower issuance in '96.
Plum blossom 5 dime coin production, redemption background inference
Therefore, the production of the plum blossom 5 jiao coin in '91 began in July '91, and it was also produced and encapsulated in the first half of '92; Because of the economic growth, the currency has a large demand for additional issuance, and the 91 year plum blossom 5 jiao was quickly exchanged in the first half of the year;
Then began to produce the 92-year-old plum blossom 5-jiao coin, until the first half of '93, but because of the '93 inflation, the '92 plum blossom 5-jiao coin was not fully exchanged in the second half of '93, and then the 93-year plum blossom 5 jiao production plan needed to be reduced;
In the first half of 94, inflation continued to remain high, but in the second half of 94, inflation eased, 93 years of plum blossoms 5 jiao in the first half of 94 years to complete the exchange, and then began to produce 94 years of plum blossom 5 jiao, because inflation eased, 94 years of plum blossom 5 jiao exchange demand increased, in the first half of 95 years to complete the exchange;
Inflation continued to decline in 95 years, and tended to decline sharply, plum blossom 5 jiao substantial increase in production, but until the end of the first half of 96, there is still a large margin, in the second half of 96 years, 96 years plum blossom 5 jiao shrinkage production plan, but because of the economic upturn, in the first half of the year did not end, has completed the exchange, so 97 years to increase plum blossom 5 jiao production.
The number of plum blossom 5 dimes in the world
Once the currency is issued and enters the circulation market, there are generally three channels: 1. Retailers, the demand for change. Go to the bank to exchange boxes, boxes, and rolls, and then split the change, and enter the circulation market; 2. Banks, cash withdrawals to make up the numbers. When depositors go to the bank to withdraw money, when they get a large integer, the bank needs to open the volume to make up the amount; 3. Collectors.
Regarding the original light scroll of the plum blossom 5 jiao, the face value was 25 yuan in 91, and the per capita monthly disposable income of that year was only about 83 yuan, and the rolled plum blossom 5 jiao accounted for about 30% of the disposable income. At that time, whether it was a retailer or a collector, there were obviously very few people who had the strength to retain or collect plum blossom 5 corner boxes, boxes, and rolls.
Assuming that there were 100,000 retailers and 1 million collectors in 91, if the 5 dimes of the plum blossoms in 91 were all evenly exchanged to the market, with the economic level and income level at that time, only 100 retailers may retain boxed plum blossom 5 jiao, and 10,000 collectors collected boxed or rolled plum blossom 5 jiao.
And in '92, per capita income increased by 153%, which means that the retailer can save 15 compared to 913% of the funds are reserved for plum blossom 5 dimes, and collectors also have 153% of the surplus funds to collect plum blossom 5 corner boxes, rolls, and even 92 years compared with 91 years to add more powerful retailers and collectors. Through this logic, with the same circulation, more boxes and volumes can be preserved in 92 than in 91.
This is also why, people's income levels have increased dramatically now, but even if we assume that the circulation of 5 jiao coins in 19 is only 10 million, the number of collection boxes and rolls will be much higher than that of plum blossom 5 jiao coins in 91.
The loss of plum blossom 5 jiao coins increases year by year, and the bank** is reduced in equal proportions
Retailers' demand for exchanging plum blossom 5 jiao coins in boxes and rolls is the same, and every year the new plum blossom 5 jiao coins will be randomly issued into the hands of various retailers. Whether it can be retained or not will be proportional to the probability of issuance.
Once the plum blossom 5 jiao coin circulated into the market, although there is a loss every year, whether it is the plum blossom 5 jiao in 91, or the plum blossom 5 jiao in 92 and subsequent years, it is dispersed to consumers according to its circulation and other proportions, and the probability of loss is basically the same, so the loss rate of the plum blossom 5 jiao coin in 91-01 years decreases in turn. In 2016, the plum blossom 5 jiao only collected and not paid, from the hands of the people to the bank, the plum blossom 5 jiao of the 91-00 year should also be the same proportion to the bank.
That is, in addition to the greater loss rate due to the earlier issuance of the plum blossom 5 jiao coin, the proportion of ** to the bank is the same, and the proportion of circulating goods stock and the proportion of circulation in each year should also be the same.
Combined with the issuance and income level, the author estimates an approximate proportion of the new stock of plum blossom 5 jiao coins: