Zhang Zhongmou was unexpected, and foreign media warned that greater challenges will come in the future
TSMC used to be a bright star created by Zhang Zhongmou, shining on this bright star. However, no one expected that just after the semiconductor giant stepped down, TSMC seemed to have encountered an unprecedented storm.
Past successes and current failures.
Since Zhang Zhongmou founded TSMC, TSMC has become the world's leading foundry leader with its unique foundry business model and incomparable production process, and even high-tech companies such as Apple, Huawei, Qualcomm, and NVIDIA have catered to its tastes. However, some time ago, a few years ago, TSMC had a surprising reversal.
TSMC's revenue situation this year can be described as ups and downs. This FY2023 revenue report indicates a 14. year-over-year decline in November4%, down 84%。TSMC's revenue for the whole year showed an overall downward trend, compared with the same period last year**45%。While the iPhone 15 series uses TSMC's 3nm process, which brings 6% of its revenue, it doesn't turn the company around.
What's even more surprising is that TSMC's process efficiency has dropped sharply, and the process efficiency of the 5 4 nm process, which was once rumored to be 5 4 nm, has dropped to 80%, not even 50%. This harsh truth has caused TSMC to slow down the expansion of the entire industry and inform major equipment makers that ASML has delayed the delivery of equipment. Due to market changes, the originally scheduled purchase of EUV lithography machines has also been postponed, which poses a great threat to TSMC's leadership in high-end process technology.
New trends in the international competition landscape.
At the same time, the face of the international market is also undergoing tremendous changes. ASML readjusted its strategy and signed a five-year purchase agreement with Samsung of South Korea to purchase 50 extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, and the right of first refusal to purchase Intel's next-generation EUV lithography machines, and jointly set up a research and development base in South Korea. Intel will receive the vast majority of ASML's EUV lithography machine orders in 2024 and be the first to achieve mass production on the 2 nm process. TSMC will have to wait until 2025 to achieve this goal.
In contrast, in China, the situation is quite the opposite. Chinese mainland's demand for ASML lithography machines remains strong, and its mainland revenue is expected to reach 46% by the third quarter of 2023, and the annual sales amount will exceed 60 billion yuan, demonstrating the strong vitality of China's semiconductor industry. In particular, Huawei has launched its own Kirin chip, which has been confirmed by a number of companies to have the capability of 7 nm process and can completely rely on the domestic industrial chain. There are many types of Kirin chips, and the output is also growing, which is a new breakthrough in China's integrated circuit industry.
Prospects for the domestic chip industry.
With the continuous improvement of the domestic chip industry chain, Chinese enterprises have gradually embarked on the road of "country-oriented" and gradually reduced their dependence on foreign manufacturers. TSMC has to deal with not only orders from Chinese companies such as Huawei, but also orders from American companies that are also declining due to the increase in China's chip production.
In the face of such a grim situation, Chinese enterprises have not retreated, but have faced the wind and rain. Domestic manufacturing companies such as SMIC are also accelerating, with SMIC alone building four new manufacturing plants. China's chip industry has entered a new era of localization, scale and internationalization.
TSMC intends to build a factory in the United States, but it looks like it is in trouble. Although $40 billion has been invested in the U.S. factory, due to the reduction of subsidies and more restrictions, this factory will put huge pressure on TSMC, which will slow down its growth.
National confidence and expectations.
In summary, TSMC is now facing an unprecedented challenge, which not only reflects the fierce competition in the world's chip manufacturing industry, but also reflects the tenacity and future of China's chip industry. Although TSMC is currently facing difficulties, the Chinese people are not discouraged, but will seize the opportunity to continue to climb the pinnacle of science and technology. There's an old saying: "Before it gets dark, it's dawn." "We believe that our chip industry will usher in our own glory. ”