The main driver of the U.S. stock market is semiconductor hardware plus technology giants that benefit from the development of AI, including Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon and other technology companies, the optimism of artificial intelligence has driven its valuation to rise rapidly, and the current Starkey 100 price-earnings ratio is 36 times, which is mainly driven by the stock price of the head company.
If you want to use an index to represent the development of China's artificial intelligence industry, I think the Hang Seng Technology Index is the most appropriate and the most representative, the index includes many companies related to technology and innovation, these companies have in-depth layout in artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, semiconductors and other fields, the rapid development of artificial intelligence will have a positive impact on these companies, may bring higher business growth, stronger profitability and broader market prospects, It is the first and most likely to benefit from the wave of artificial intelligence development, but in this wave of technology, the Hang Seng Technology Index is obviously lagging behind, with a price-earnings ratio of less than 16 times less than half of the Nasdaq 100, and the PE valuation of Tencent and Ali in China is only a little more than 10 times.
The stock price is so lagging behind, and the expectations are so bad, I think there are some reasons for this:
First, the lack of high-end semiconductors makes the funds more suspicious of the development of domestic artificial intelligence. To put it bluntly, this thing is very good, but you can't do it, this will widen the distance of development a little bit, although a lot of large models have been released in China, but there is no one who can really fight with the United States, and the technology is often several steps apart. The past few years of the epidemic have caused the development and cognition of overseas science and technology to suddenly lag behind, which fully demonstrates the necessity and importance of exchanges.
Second, the short-term capital market pays more attention to the involution between domestic enterprises, and ignores its possible future increment. For example, Douyin volume Ali, Tencent; Pinduoduo and JD.com, Ali's game, etc., the core of which is still the worry about economic growth, but these involutions are all competing in the traditional field, but then again, our long-term scientific and technological innovation does face problems, in fact, the community of the volume in the past few years, has not made any reputation, but the highlights of new growth are insufficient, and the money spent is not used on the blade. However, according to the demand for China's annualized GDP growth of 5%, the space for the development of artificial intelligence is large enough, and the increment is enough to support the imagination of the future.
Third, the weakening of the capital market, especially the impact of Hong Kong's liquidity as an offshore market and concerns about the long-term problems between China and the United States, has led to the long-term adoption of some leading companies, such as Alibaba by Softbank, Tencent by South African newspapers, etc. Fortunately, companies have begun to increase their holdings in large quantities, and even continue to increase their weight, which is a relatively large alleviation from the perspective of chip games.
Fourth, in the past few years, the strong supervision of policies and long-term funds in overseas markets have greater uncertainty concerns about the development of domestic related enterprises. At present, in fact, we can also see the attitude of supervision, especially under this long-term technical game, I think there should be more supportive policies in the future.
The problem of regulation and liquidity may be slowly resolved over time, after all, cyclical factors dominate; The alleviation of long-term corporate growth concerns requires the further development of artificial intelligence to open up the space for imagination, and enterprises need to make more changes and efforts; When it comes to the underlying things, it can only be a little progress, such as computing power chips, etc., and it is impossible to break through immediately.
To be honest, the current valuation level, a comparison can be seen more clearly, the market is more pessimistic about the development of domestic artificial intelligence, and even the expectations are not very good, perhaps we are too focused on the problem of volume and ignore the development and progress of technology. Maybe everyone has more shaken about the underlying logic, but I believe that one thing is okay, when overseas is all in AI, we need to make more efforts in all aspects, such as ideological cognition, not just the technical level.