And people who lack business experience sometimes feel very tired to explain the underlying logic of investment. There are some things that he agrees with in words, but in practice he makes mistakes.
And because he lacks basic business experience, he is easily misled by some superficial and specious logic artificially constructed by the outside world.
Sometimes I am surprised, why does someone who doesn't seem stupid make such a low-level mistake at a critical juncture, and he doesn't change it repeatedly? Later, I realized that his experience has been stuck in the analysis and trading of financial assets on the surface, and his thinking model has not been able to get in touch with the basic common sense of doing business, and he has not deeply experienced the various bottlenecks, difficulties, and great powerlessness and pain of the real business. It is even more difficult to discern the value of a truly good business.
In this way, every time someone draws a big pie for him, ** fluctuates slightly, he can't help but follow the trend, and then constantly becomes the harvest object of various Ponzi bureaus.
If you watch too many movies, people are prone to becoming mentally retarded.
The evolution path of many things is extremely complex and circuitous, and the actual sensory experience of most of the scene is boring, monotonous and boring, with a long lack of effective feedback and various frustrations.
However, due to the time limit, the film must show the most dramatic conflicts and core scenes in a short period of time, so there is basically no room for any boredom.
Therefore, people who are addicted to film and drama do not understand or respect the basic fact that "long and boring accumulation and waiting is the true meaning of life"; On the contrary, it is easy to add drama to yourself, pursue tenaciously in the illusion of wishful thinking, and quickly consume your precious resources and energy.
It was observed and realized a long time ago that most of our lives are dull and even boring. Only by understanding and accepting this objective fact can we face life with a normal heart and better deal with all kinds of trivial things in life.
The essence of all social phenomena that you can't understand is because you can't understand the money flow and interest exchange mechanism behind them.
It is simply stupid to waste a lot of energy and emotions to argue about the "absurdity and irrationality" of superficial phenomena without digging deep and studying the interest exchange mechanism behind it.
This point is particularly profound in the process of reading history. Only by looking at the problem and interpreting history from the perspective of financial interests, costs and benefits, can we understand why there are often brutal massacres in wars, and why there are few successful people in the Northern Expedition in Chinese history, but most of the Southern Expeditions can succeed.
I have observed some friends who have been in the same place for twenty or thirty years, and there is no essential change in the method and scale of operation, or they have encountered a bottleneck and are stuck, and then they have not been able to make progress for many years. They have a serious misunderstanding in their thinking, that is: they have never thought that they can establish some kind of structural advantage that can be accumulated continuously.
In the absence of any structural advantage, he constantly fantasizes that he can rely on brute force to surpass other competitors and obtain excess returns. After each defeat and loss, you think that your brute force is not enough, and then the next time you use more brute force to continue betting in a new place where there is no clear advantage. In the end, when I was old, tired, and in good health, I gave up and accepted my fate.
The key here is "structural strength" and "cumulative". Everyone's entry point to building a "structural advantage" is different. You have to start with your own small interests and specialties, no matter how small you are, as long as you have advantages and advantages can be accumulated, you can continue to accumulate small victories into big victories on the battlefield you choose, and it will be easier and easier in the future.
Those companies that are successful in entrepreneurship must have their own advantages in a certain aspect within a certain period of time, and if this advantage can be continuously iterated or accumulated, it can form a long-term advantage, and this advantage will continue to expand.
A good opportunity for more than five years, there are few people who will grab it from you.
First, because most people's resources cannot last for five years, and the funds of various financial investment institutions cannot wait for more than five years. Even if the underlying logic is exactly right, it is not operational if there are not enough resources to sustain it for a long time.
The second is that this kind of opportunity is often mediocre or even bad in the short term, and cannot give you strong positive feedback right away.
The third is that scramble often brings a sense of security to game participants. Because his confidence in the game can only come from the competition of many people, not the simple and powerful underlying logic. When he doesn't have faith, he always wants to ask people, "What do you think of xxx?" "to gain confidence.
The opportunity to span more than five years in time is a big opportunity, and you should not be passionate about this kind of big opportunity and big goal, but you must be resilient.
Always wanting to increase leverage, always afraid of missing opportunities, always restless for fluctuations, what is reflected behind is a refugee mentality that is deep in the bone marrow. The refugee mentality is justified when resources are extremely scarce, but it is often counterproductive in other contexts, and this mentality can lead to excessive cortisol secretion in the brain, which can lead to high levels of mental stress and easy life loss.
This kind of mentality is common to many people, and many times only after more experience and enough experience can we better deal with it.
When you do the same thing as everyone else, no matter how hard you try, you are essentially in a weak position to serve the power monopoly of the system in which you live. And often the harder you work, the more you give to those in power, and the weaker your ability to break free from path dependence and fight for your own power.
The acquisition of power begins with continuous thinking and practice of "how to do different things and occupy a unique ecological niche". It is a gradual and lengthy process.
Differentiation is more likely to win in the competition. Innovation is essentially differentiation, as long as the direction of innovation is right, it can greatly expand its own win-win surface.
When there is a major change in the macro pattern, it is often not felt at the micro level, and even the opposite message is perceived. Ji Xianlin once wrote in his diary that after the German invasion of the Soviet Union on June 22, 1941, ordinary Germans did not feel anything, and he went out for a picnic with his friends that day, and his life was very peaceful for the next few days, and he did not feel that this was a major turning point.
Similarly, when a company has crossed the turning point and is about to slide into the abyss of bankruptcy, if you observe it on the spot, it is often completely unaware, and many people will continue to happily repeat some clichés and huddle together to reinforce their misconceptions.
To grasp the correct macro pattern, it is necessary to repeatedly and continuously observe the macro pattern from multiple angles and scales. Isolated details of the micro and local are often unimportant; It is important to understand what are the key nodes in the overall situation, and the interaction mechanism between nodes.
Diligently spending a lot of time collecting local details, and only surviving with local people with the same perspective, is often just confirming their own biases and making themselves more and more stupid.
The long-term and short-term tendencies of the same thing, macro and micro states, are often very different in their manifestations and even completely opposite in terms of their perception. If you want to figure it out and understand it, you need to have a way to observe and analyze it comprehensively.
An important reason why many people can't become smart quickly is that they don't dare to express their opinions publicly, for fear of being ridiculed and exposed. In this way, it is never possible to discover your weaknesses in order to make real progress; Or, confine yourself to a small circle, hello, hello, everyone, a ball of harmony, flattering each other and self-anesthetizing. AI doesn't have that concern.
Learning progress can be like AI learning: dare to show yourself, absorb feedback, and make iterative optimization in time.
People who have a lot of choice, the first reaction when they encounter obstacles, is to quietly give up and leave (change people, change products, change environment), instead of continuing to entangle. The voices of complaining often come from people who lack choice and cannot leave. The louder the complaint, the less option there is.
There is a way out, there are more choices, and people will not be confined to the current "predicament", and people will be more calm and indifferent.
If you have been a problem solver in school for a long time, you will have a wrong instinct to think that everything must be solved, that there must be an answer to any problem, and if you can't solve it immediately, you will be restless. As everyone knows, most things in the world are either unsolved, or they have to stay up for a long time, end in a way that is not what you want, or they don't finish.
The growth environment of long-term test-taking education can make people think that all the problems we encounter are like the questions on the test paper, and each question has an answer, even a standard answer. But this is not the case in the real society.