Housing, the cornerstone of life, has a profound impact on our daily lives and well-being. However, China's real estate market is currently in a double dilemma: on the one hand, some people are anxious because they can't buy the property they want; Others, on the other hand, are saddled with the pressure of impending property taxes due to the excess properties in their hands.
According to the statistics recently released by the central bank's survey team, the homeownership rate of urban households in China has climbed to 9686%, of which up to 415% of urban households own two or more properties. At the same time, the rental market data for 2020 shows that there are 2200 million people choose to live in rented housing, including many people who find it difficult to buy a house due to high housing prices.
Clearly, while the majority of households already own a home, nearly half of urban households still own more than one property. In the eyes of many people, the house is no longer a simple living space, but a tool for investment and a symbol of wealth. Buying a house is seen as an investment, and people expect to achieve rapid appreciation of assets through the price of the house. In the past 20 years, average house prices have soared fourfold, and in some cities even by more than ten times, allowing many early home buyers to accumulate considerable wealth. In particular, those who own multiple properties can enjoy the wealth growth that comes with house prices** just by sitting back and enjoying the benefits.
However, such a "buy a house and make money" era may be gradually fading away. With the transformation of the real estate market, the myth that house prices will only go up and not down will become a thing of the past.
1. People's demand for housing is changing a lot
Due to the continuous housing prices in the past few years, housing prices have entered a general decline mode, resulting in many property speculators gradually withdrawing from the property market. As an important force in the property market, their exit has undoubtedly weakened the power of home buyers in the market.
At the same time, the number of buyers who just need to buy a home is also decreasing year by year. This is due both to the fact that more and more people have already met their housing targets and because the number of new arrivals continues to decline. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of newborns in China has been declining year by year in recent years, and it will drop to 9 million in 2023, and the birth rate has reached a historic low. Looking at the long term, the number of post-00s and post-10s is a full 1 less than that of post-80s and post-90s0.3 billion.
Houses are ultimately about meeting people's living needs, so population is the real cornerstone of the real estate industry. As the number of new students continues to decrease in the future, the demand for housing will gradually weaken. Although urbanization is still advancing, and it is expected that there will be 20% of the development space in the future, which means that 400 million people will move into the city, this will mainly affect the first and second-tier hotspot cities, because they are attractive enough.
2. Housing resources are already in surplus
After years of development of China's real estate industry, housing resources are no longer in short supply, especially in many cities. Since the comprehensive reform of residential commercialization in July 1998, the real estate industry has ushered in a period of rapid development, and the completion and entry of a large number of commercial houses into the market have effectively alleviated the shortage of housing resources.
According to statistics, in 2000, the per capita housing area of urban residents in China was only 103 square meters, and by 2020, the per capita housing area has increased significantly to more than 40 square meters, and the urbanization rate of household registration has exceeded 44%. In addition, the data released by the central bank's investigation team shows that at present, 96Eighty-six per cent of urban households already own a home, with an average household of more than 15 sets, of which 415% of households own 2 or more houses. These data show that, in general, there is a surplus of housing resources in our country.
However, it is worth noting that in first- and second-tier hotspot cities, housing resources are still tight due to the continuous inflow of population. In contrast, except for these economically developed first- and second-tier cities and regions, other third- and fourth-tier cities have a significant surplus of housing resources.
3. After the 2023 bailout**, more and more people are starting to be bearish on house prices
With the end of 2023 and looking back on the changes in the real estate market over the year, a significant trend comes into view: even if the top level of the market intensively introduces rescue policies, housing prices are still like a loose horse, all the way down. This phenomenon has caused ripples in society, triggered in-depth thinking from people from all walks of life, and the voices of bearish housing prices have come and gone.
In order to stabilize the real estate market, all levels have actively adopted a variety of rescue strategies in the past year. These include lowering mortgage interest rates to relieve some of the financial burden on home buyers; Lowering the down payment ratio has lowered the threshold for buying a house; Gradually relax the purchase restriction policy to provide more choices for home buyers; And directly give financial subsidies to home buyers to boost market confidence. However, these measures do not seem to have turned the tide of house prices**.
The reasons behind this are complex. First of all, as the bailout policy continues to be introduced, the public reaction has changed from the initial enthusiasm to the calm and calm it is today. Policy continuity and stability are essential to restore market confidence, however, frequent policy adjustments may exacerbate market uncertainty and lead homebuyers to take a wait-and-see approach. Secondly, as house prices continue to rise, home buyers' expectations are also quietly changing. They began to look at the real estate market from a more rational perspective, abandoning the investment mentality of blindly following the herd, and paying more attention to actual demand and investment value.
In the face of further increased rescue efforts in various places** in 2024, the response of the property market has become more and more cold. This partly reflects the market's lack of confidence in bailout policies, which people have become accustomed to and no longer expect them to bring about disruptive changes. At the same time, the continuation of housing prices has further deepened the wait-and-see atmosphere in the market, and the voice of bearish housing prices has become louder and louder. Against this backdrop, the outlook for the property market still seems to be uncertain.
From the above three points, it can be seen that housing prices will no longer repeat the crazy trend of the past. After the property market has experienced a downward trend in the past three years, the entire market environment has been turned upside down. The dream of buying a house and getting rich in the past may become unattainable in the future. So, for families with more than two properties in their hands, they are at a crossroads: should they hold for the long term, or should they sell decisively? In this regard, Sun Hongbin's three sentences provide us with profound insights:
In the next 5 years, housing prices will neither rise nor fall sharply, but will be in a state of volatility, which is the consensus of everyone;
We expect the real estate market to be more miserable in the second half of the year, and we have to leave a safe boundary for ourselves;
With the improvement of people's living standards, people's requirements for housing quality will be higher and higher, which means that there is still great potential for the development of high-end improved housing in the future.
It can be seen that for the trend of housing prices, the era of the first road has passed, and it has been replaced by stability as the main theme. For those who own more than two properties, the flattening of house prices means that their properties are struggling to deliver the good yields they once had. They may even be at risk of shrinking their assets once house prices appear**. In addition, with the gradual introduction of property tax and landlord tax, the cost of holding a property will become higher and higher. Therefore, for families with multiple properties, if the number of properties is too large, it is advisable to minimize the risk and ensure the safety of the assets.