This newspaperOn January 8, the three major A-share stock indexes continued to **, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,900 points again, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index continued to hit new lows. The continuation of A-shares has made many investors feel helpless, and the new shareholder Hu Xijin (Lao Hu) published the latest ** diary after the market, saying that he personally felt the pain of the A-share small scatters;In contrast, China's richest man's A-share assets have soared by 36 billion yuan in the last 10 days, becoming one of the few winners in the downturn.
For the current A** field, UBS believes that the worst time has passed, in the view of Meng Lei, a strategic analyst at UBS **China**, corporate earnings have begun, macro policies continue to exert force, and investor confidence will improve will be the three important factors that will promote the upward trend of the A** field this year. The reporter of "Investment Express" noticed that since mid-to-late December last year, the voices of domestic and foreign institutions singing long A-shares have been emerging.
China's richest man's A-share assets increased by 36 billion yuan
On January 8, the three major A-share stock indexes opened low and went low, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 2,900 points again, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index continued to hit new lows. As of **, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 142% at 288754 points;The Shenzhen Component Index fell 185% at 894772 points;The GEM index fell 176% at 174441 points. The market turnover shrank, with the turnover of the two cities only 657.6 billion yuan, and the net selling of northbound funds was 434.7 billion yuan.
On the disk, the industry sector and the first industry are showing a general downward trend. In terms of less than 400 of them;In terms of industry sectors, only one of the 31 industry indices in Shenwan level-1 was a slight increase of 02%, the other 30 industry indices have varying degrees of **, national defense and military industry, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, computers, comprehensive, communications, machinery and equipment, light industry manufacturing, etc. fell by more than 2%.
After yesterday's trading, Hu Xijin (Lao Hu), a senior ** person and a new shareholder, published the latest ** diary. Lao Hu said, yesterday ** fell sharply again, and I and the vast majority of ** are in sympathy with each other. Lao Hu Xin lost 4,654 yuan, and the total floating loss exceeded 60,000 yuan, which I did not expect when I entered the market at that time, and I personally felt the pain of the A-share small scatters.
Lao Hu said that behind the pain he felt was the continuous adjustment of new lows, including China Duty Free, Wuliangye, etc., which continued to emerge, and Arowana and so on have hit a new low since their listing. However, there are also some ** gratifying gains, such as China's richest man Zhong Xuhui Holdings' Wantai Biology rose 8 yesterday28%。According to statistics, in the 16 trading days since December 15 last year, the company's stock price has risen by 8224%, the total market value soared from about 60.5 billion yuan to 110.3 billion yuan, a surge of nearly 50 billion yuan.
According to the disclosure, Zhong Sui is the actual controller of Wantai Biology, directly and indirectly through Yangshengtang *** holds about 73% of the shares of Wantai Biology, the company's stock price soared so that its investors made a lot of money at the same time, but also made Zhong Sui net worth increase about 36 billion yuan to become one of the few winners in the downturn.
According to public information, Zhong has single-handedly created two major brands, Nongfu Spring and Yangshengtang. In April 2020, Wantai Biotech was listed on the main board of the Shanghai Stock ExchangeIn September of the same year, Nongfu Spring was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. According to the 2023 Hurun Report released by the Hurun Research Institute on October 24 last year, Zhong became the richest man in China for the third time with a wealth of 450 billion yuan.
UBS**: The worst time for A-shares has passed
In the overall outlook for the 2024 China** market** at the UBS Greater China Seminar, Lian Peikun, director of Greater China Research at UBS Global Investment Bank, said that the MSCI China Index has 15% upside in 2024, of which 10% is driven by earnings growth and 5% is driven by valuation.
Specific to the investment outlook of the A** field, Meng Lei, a strategic analyst at UBS **China**, said bluntly: "The worst time for A-shares has passed." Corporate earnings have already begun, macro policies will continue to exert force, and investor confidence will improve will be the three important factors driving the upward trend of the A** market in 2024.
In terms of corporate earnings, Meng Lei believes that the year-on-year growth rate of earnings per share of the CSI 300 Index is expected to rebound to 8% in 2024. According to the UBS macro team, China's real GDP growth rate in 2024 will be 4Around 4%, nominal GDP growth is expected to increase from 46%** by 20243%, and the recovery of nominal GDP growth will help A-share companies' revenue growth**.
In fact, since mid-to-late December last year, foreign bullish voices on A-shares have been emerging. For example, Morgan Stanley believes that A-shares will pick up, and sets the target point of the CSI 300 index at 3850 points at the end of this yearGao Ting, general manager and chief strategic analyst of Nomura Orient International** Research Department, said that the market is expected to have upside in the next 12 months, on the one hand, valuation repair, and on the other hand, earnings improvement. Although there is some uncertainty, there are many positive factors overall.
On the macroeconomic front, many foreign-funded institutions believe that China's economy is expected to continue to recover in 2024, and a number of positive signals are being released, such as the recovery of household income and consumption, the improvement of corporate earnings, and the continuous promotion of economic transformation. For the A** market, investment opportunities will continue to emerge in 2024, taking into account the background factors such as the recovery of sentiment, the attractiveness of valuations at historically low levels, and the continuous stabilization of fundamentals.
Domestic institutions are also generally optimistic about A-shares. For example, CICC said that the opportunities for A-shares this year outweigh the risks. CICC believes that after a series of ** in the early stage, the major indices have reappeared in extreme valuations, and the assets** may have reflected investors' overly pessimistic expectations. Soochow believes that this year, standing at the starting point of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle and the sixth round of capital market policy cycle, foreign capital is expected to return to inflow, resonate with domestic medium and long-term funds and institutional funds, regain control of market pricing, and break the current stock game and "irrational speculation" The pattern of continuous fermentation.