January and February are the window period of the macro environment, the market's expectations have basically bottomed out, and the trading dimension has become the main force driving the market.
Overseas, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 21 percent in December60,000, higher than the expected 1710,000 people;The unemployment rate is 37%, below expectations of 38%, which has remained low for many months;Wages rose 04%, exceeding expectations by 03%。The labor market remains tight, expectations of interest rate cuts have fallen, and the 10-year Treasury rate has risen weakly to 405%, the dollar strengthened, overseas ** and metal bulk fell.
Domestically, in December last year, the China Development Bank, the Export-Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China added 350 billion yuan of net new collateral supplementary loans (PSL).It is likely to be invested in the "three major projects" such as affordable housing, "level-emergency dual-use" infrastructure, and urban village transformation. Monetary policy continued to be accommodative, and the 10-year Treasury rate continued to fall to 252%, bonds**, and commodities**.
In terms of bonds, due to the continued equity market last week, long-term bonds and ultra-long-term bonds still performed well. At present, long-end and ultra-long-end interest rates are closely related to the performance of the equity market, and such varieties play the function of safe-haven assets when the equity market is relatively fast. However, due to the fact that the funding situation is still tight, short-end interest rates rose and then fell last week, but they are still higher than the level at the end of the year. The long-term interest rate looks at equity, and the short-end annual interest rate looks at the capital side, which may become the core feature of bond pricing in the future.
In terms of A-shares, the recent market correction is still pessimistic, and funds are geared towards high-dividend sectors with defensive attributes. In terms of odds, the current price-to-book ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index has been at 0The 3% quantile, 16 of Shenwan's 31 primary industries have a price-to-book ratio lower than the 10% percentile, and 26 have a price-to-book ratio lower than the 20% percentile. From the perspective of winning rate, the recent increase in PSL and the decline in short-term interest rates, there is still more room for imagination in the follow-up stable growth policy, and we should actively go long. Structurally, before the Spring Festival, the first-class stock game space is larger, and the layout of industries with supply advantages is recommended, such as building materials, nonferrous metals, power equipment, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, medicine and biology, computers, and non-banking.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, from a medium-term perspective, Hong Kong stock earnings expectations are gradually improving, and overseas liquidity is generally easing, which is conducive to the performance of Hong Kong stocksIn the short term, the swing back in overseas easing trading will suppress the performance of Hong Kong stocks.
In terms of the world, the world has not yet entered a new round of replenishment cycle, and there is a lack of upward pull on the demand sideOPEC+ has a strong willingness to maintain prices, and its fiscal profit and loss line provides bottom support for oil prices;In the context of low inventory, the supply game amplifies ** fluctuations.
*In terms of overseas liquidity, the overall bias towards easing is conducive to the medium-term performance;In the short term, the strong fundamentals of the United States and the expectation of interest rate cuts are in a see-saw, and the continuation of easing transactions needs more signals of the weakening of the U.S. economy, which may enter a consolidation phase.