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Text |BT Finance.Li Xiang was born an ordinary person, but he is especially good at "taking advantage of the situation".
The "potential" here refers to the external environment and opportunities. Li Xiang was born in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province in 1981, he has thick eyebrows and thick lips, often giving people a sullen feeling, but there is a sense of arrogance. Li Xiang was born in a scholarly family, and it stands to reason that his academic performance should be particularly excellent. However, Li Xiang's academic performance has always been in the lower middle class until the age of 18, and in the eyes of teachers, it is difficult for such a student to have any success in the future.
In the 90s of the last century, computers began to become popular in China, and for three years in junior high school, Li Xiang's dream was to be able to access computers. When Li Xiang was a freshman in high school, his family finally spent 8,000 yuan to buy the first computer, at this time Li Xiangle was crazy, who would have thought that it was this Pentium 3 processor computer that became the first "potential" that Li Xiang encountered. Because during this period, with the rise of computers, there was also the Internet that changed the lives of many entrepreneurs.
During this period, Li Xiang's greatest pleasure was to study his own computer, and the second greatest pleasure was to write articles about computer software and hardware and submit them to the computer newspaper. Unexpectedly, the first article was published in full by "Computer Business Information", and I successfully got the first manuscript fee in my life - 600 yuan. can not only satisfy his interests but also make money, Li Xiang's interest is completely on the computer, and since then he has been writing and submitting articles out of control. At the peak, Li Xiang earned 20,000 yuan a month just for the advertising display and manuscript fee on **, which was 10 times the salary of his parents.
But after a long time, he was not satisfied. Li Xiang, who was still in high school, began to think about starting a business to make money, so Li Xiang applied for a personal **, this is the home of the graphics card, it is difficult to get a reasonable distribution of time between the establishment of the ** and going to school, on the contrary, the two involved Li Xiang too much energy, and finally Li Xiang had no choice but to drop out of school and concentrate on operating the home of the graphics card, and then changed its name to Bubble Network. By 2004, Li Xiang's annual income from Bubble Network had reached more than 20 million, and its market value had exceeded 200 million, and Li Xiang's worth had also risen.
This period is China's portal Internet era, such as Soufan and Ctrip, which were born during this period, which is the second "potential" that Li Xiang encounteredUnder the spring breeze of Internet entrepreneurship, Li Xiang was unwilling to only do bubble network, thinking about it, Li Xiang felt that the car ** had the greatest opportunity, and the car ** and the bubble network had many similarities, and then Li Xiang started the second business and established Autohome.
The ten years after Li Xiang founded Autohome were the first ten years on Li Xiang's entrepreneurial road. Without a little promotion fee, in just half a year, Autohome has entered the top three in terms of visits. In December 2013, Autohome** completed its IPO and was listed on the New York Stock Exchange, and Li Xiang successfully transformed into a capital tycoon with this great increase in value.
In 2014, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a special trip to China to deliver the keys to China's first batch of Tesla owners. This is the third "potential" that Li Xiang encounters - the rise of new energy vehicles.
Li Xiang later recalled, I thought it was possible for me to build another Toyota in my lifetime, and what could be more exciting than that, if I couldn't raise the money, I would pay 100 million dollars myself. In July 2015, Li Xiang's new car-making company, Chehejia, was officially established, and at the same time, the brand Ideal named after Li Xiang's name was also born, and more than two years later, the first model of Li Auto, Ideal One, was born.
Chen Guangxian, a well-known military strategist in the Qing Dynasty, once wrote such a sentence: A wise man should seek according to the situation, move in response to the situation, follow the situation, and take advantage of the situation. Li Xiang has firmly grasped the opportunity of "taking advantage of the situation" three times in the course of entrepreneurship, and now Li Auto has come to the next intersection of "taking advantage of the situation", and has become the "new king" of the new car-making force with the help of family cars and intelligent boom.
In 2023, after the reshuffle of the new energy vehicles industry, the big waves are sweeping the sand, and some car-making brands such as Gaohe and Weimar are insufficient and cannot adapt to the development of the market or face market retreat, and the financial problems encountered by high-end car-making upstarts have also cast a shadow on the development of Wei Xiaoli's new car-making forces, and on February 26, Li Auto (hereinafter referred to as Ideal) released its 2023 annual report, basically announcing that Ideal has gone ashore in advance.
According to the financial report, the total revenue of the ideal in 2023 is 1238500 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17348%。This is the first car company with an annual revenue of more than 100 billion yuan after many new car-making forces poured into the car-making track. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 11.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68165%。With a net profit of 11.7 billion yuan, the ideal average daily net profit in 2023 will exceed 32 million yuan. After the release of the earnings report, Li Auto surged 12% in the pre-market of U.S. stocks. * Up to 1879%, Hong Kong stocks rose 2545%。Entering 2024, the share price of Ideal Hong Kong stocks will rise by 193%, and U.S. stocks rose 104%。As of February 27, Beijing time, the ideal beauty ** value is 438US$600 million, the Hong Kong ** value was HK$372.4 billion, and the market value increased by HK$75.5 billion in a single day.
At a time when Xiaopeng and Weilai are having a headache for huge losses, the third ideal in the original "Wei Xiaoli" has quietly achieved profitability, leaving the boss and the second child behind, which may have a far-reaching impact on the entire industry.
On the morning of February 27, not only did the ideal Hong Kong stock rise of more than 20%, but many other auto sectors also continued to strengthen. Lifan Technology, Hanma Technology, Cialis, BYD, BAIC Blue Valley, JAC, Zhongtong Bus, etc. followed suit. BYD, whose stock price has been the best during the year, has also recorded consecutive gains in the past two trading days, with a single-day increase of 4 on the 27th14%, the second highest increase in the year, second only to February 6 468% increase.
Since 2021, China has gradually become a global leader in automotive exports. After the epidemic stabilized, the global auto market recovered, and the international market due to the shortage of the first supply and demand gap caused by a large gap, China's auto industry chain showed strong resilience, and the export volume of automobiles achieved strong growth.
According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, China's automobile exports in 2021 were 2.19 million units, a year-on-year increase of 102%. In 2022, China's vehicle exports reached 3.4 million units, a year-on-year increase of 55%, making China the world's second-largest exporter of passenger cars after Japan. In 2023, China's automobile exports will be 4.91 million units, a year-on-year increase of 579%, and exports contributed 557%, while Japan's car exports in 2023 will be 4.42 million units, and China has truly surpassed Japan to become the world's number one exporter of passenger cars.
On July 26, 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Standardization Administration of the People's Republic of China jointly issued the "Guidelines for the Construction of the National Internet of Vehicles Industry Standard System (Intelligent Connected Vehicles) (2023 Edition)", which has become a policy support to promote the strength of the automotive sector. "The introduction of the "guide" is to provide the development of the Internet of Vehicles industry with the basis of intelligent networked vehicles, technology, products, test standards, etc., including the intelligent networked vehicle standard system, will guide and promote the intelligent networked vehicle industry towards high-quality development, thirteen departments jointly issued the "on a number of measures to promote automobile consumption", will also help to stabilize and expand automobile consumption, promote the public sector of new energy vehicles to purchase the number. Coupled with Ideal's earnings in 2023, it has brought confidence to other new energy vehicle investors, and the auto sector is expected to be better this year. ”
Anyone who understands Chinese medicine knows that the role of medicine primers is immeasurable. As the saying goes: "If there is no medicine, there is no place for disease." "The drug primer, also known as the introduction of menstrual medicine and the introduction of medicine, mainly refers to the drugs that can guide the prescription to concentrate on a certain part or viscera, and directly reach the disease, so that it can better exert the best effect. For the entire new energy vehicle market, the ideal profit may be a "medicine primer" to solve the losses of most car companies, which can make new forces such as Weilai and Xiaopeng, which have been losing money, see the hope of profitability, and let investors see hope.
Ideal's performance in the fourth quarter of 2023 has set the tone for full-year earnings. Ideal revenue for the quarter was 417300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13644%, net profit attributable to the parent company 565.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 210212%。This is the fifth consecutive quarter of profitability for Ideal. The revenue for the previous three quarters was 187900 million yuan, 286500 million yuan and 346800 million yuan, from the first quarter to the fourth quarter, revenue showed a rapid growth trend. The net profit for the same period was 929.7 billion yuan, 229.3 billion and 282.3 billion yuan, also showing a rapid growth trend.
It is worth noting that the gross profit margin of Ideal will reach 22 in 202320%, a record high in the annual report, compared to a gross margin of 19 in the previous year41%, an increase of 279 percentage points, Tesla, which has always been known for its high gross profit margin, will only have a gross profit margin of 18 in 20232%。The ideal net profit margin increase is even more impressive, with an ideal net profit margin of -4 in 202249% and 9 in 202353%, an increase of 1402 percentage points, such a significant increase in net profit margin, is relatively rare among global car companies.
In terms of breakdown, the gross profit margin of Ideal in the four quarters of 2023 will also show an increasing trend, respectively. 04% and 23 in the fourth quarter45%, and the gross margin in the fourth quarter was 306 percentage points. This is matched by an increase in net profit margin, which is ideal for the first quarter of 2023 at 497%, compared to 8 in the next two quarters06% and 811% compared to 1378%, an increase of 881 percentage points. In China, it is difficult for the gross profit margin of many car companies to reach 13In the case of 78%, the ideal net profit margin will be 1378%, which is really rare. After all, even an industry giant like BYD will have a net profit margin of only 5 in the first three quarters of 202329%, and in 2022 it will only be 418%。Q3 2023. Tesla's net profit margin was 804%, ideal surpassed Tesla in net profit margin for the first time, which shows the high gross profit margin and net profit margin of ideal.
Zhang Zhiyong, the first automaker, believes that the ideal high gross profit margin and high net profit margin are the key to turning losses into profits, which may bring some inspiration to other new energy vehicle companies. "The new energy vehicle industry has been basically losing money except for Tesla and BYD, and the ideal profit will attract more car manufacturers to follow suitIn particular, NIO and XPeng will not only put great pressure on them after making a profit, but also give them confidence in profitability, which will play a great role in promoting the industry. ”
In addition, Li Auto expects to deliver 100,000 to 100,000 in the first quarter of this year30,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 902%~95.9%;Revenue 312500 million yuan to 321900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 663%—71.3%。With such performance, it is difficult for the stock prices of ideal U.S. stocks and Hong Kong stocks not to rise.
Unlike some companies, where net profit growth is based on significant cost reductions, Ideal's profitability in 2023 is genuine. R&D expenses and selling expenses increased by 5614% and 7242%, ideal to reverse the outside impression that it is reluctant to invest in research and development.
Ideal's R&D expenses in 2019 were 116.9 billion yuan, and the R&D expenses in 2020 will be 1.1 billion yuan, which is the year that R&D expenses fell by 593%, while marketing expenses increased by 62 percent year-over-year29%, so that the outside world has the impression of "heavy marketing, light R&D" on the ideal, because in this year, NIO, which is also a new force in car manufacturing, spent as much as 248.8 billion, is the ideal 23 times, even Xiaopeng, which has always been short of funds, has spent as much as 17 in this year2.6 billion yuan, both higher than the ideal 1.1 billion yuan.
But in the three years from 2021 to 2023, the ideal R&D expenses are 328.6 billion yuan, 678 billion and 105900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of respectively. 31% and 5614%。Selling expenses for the same period were 349.2 billion yuan, 566.5 billion and 976.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase. 22% and 7242%, the increase in R&D expenses exceeded marketing expenses in 2022, and 67The R&D expenditure of 8 billion yuan is 56$6.5 billion in marketing expenses111.5 billion yuan.
Marketing expenses are higher than R&D expenses, which is basically a "common problem" of new car-making forcesFrom 2018 to 2021, NIO's sales expenses were higher than those of R&D expenses, and it was not until 2022 that R&D expenses were slightly higher than sales expenses of 300 million yuan. Xpeng's R&D expenses were higher than sales expenses before 2019, but since 2020, Xpeng's own financial pressure has been greater, and it has begun to focus on marketing, and sales expenses are greater than R&D expenses from 2020 to 2022, and sales expenses in 2022 are higher than R&D expenses by 147.3 billion yuan. Tesla, the world's most valuable car company, has also been spending more on marketing than on R&DIdeal's R&D expenses in 2023 will be higher than sales expenses, which not only shows that Ideal attaches great importance to R&D, but also hits back at Ideal's "heavy marketing, light R&D" theory. In addition, the ideal relevant source revealed: "Last year, the intelligent driving R&D team reached 1,000 people, and this year it will be expanded to 2,000 people, including the research and development of vehicles, tests, algorithms and cutting-edge technologies." ”
Ideal will sell 37. in 202360,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1822%。This makes Ideal in the automotive business revenue of 1202900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1727%, accounting for 97% of total revenue1%。Driven by the automotive business, it has driven the improvement of charging piles, accessories and services, and the total revenue of other businesses is 35600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2013%, which is higher than the growth rate of Li Auto's sales and total revenue.
Take the ideal 37With an annual sales volume of 60,000 units and an annual net profit, the net profit of an ideal bicycle reached 310,000 yuan, this data is almost the best among many domestic car companies. Taking BYD's performance forecast as an example, BYD's net profit per car is about 0960,000 yuan to 1030,000 yuan,The ideal net profit per vehicle is about three times that of BYD
In terms of sales, BYD's sales in 2023 will be 3.02 million units, about 8 times the ideal sales. BYD's net profit in the performance forecast is about 29 billion yuan to 31 billion yuan, which is only an ideal 265 times. This is related to the fact that all models are ideal for mid-to-high-end, and BYD has a large number of models with a bicycle ** of less than 100,000 yuan, which has lowered the net profit of a single car. It is understood that the guide price of the ideal models is higher than 300,000 yuan, even if there are various discounts and **, the transaction price is more than 250,000 yuan, which is inseparable from the high-end market positioning. According to the financial report, in the fourth quarter of last year, Li Auto's market share in the new energy vehicle market of more than 200,000 yuan increased to 16%.
According to the financial report, the efficient collaboration of products and R&D, sales and service, as well as manufacturing under the ideal matrix organization has promoted the continuous decline of business amortized costs, which is a solid foundation for the substantial increase in the scale of ideal revenue and profitability. At the same time, Ideal also continues to "reduce costs", and the sales, general and administrative expenses of Ideal Auto in the fourth quarter of last year were 32700 million yuan, the expense ratio accounted for 78%, a further decrease from 2022. This is one of the reasons for the improvement of the ideal gross and net profit margins.
After tasting the sweetness of mid-to-high-end products, Ideal plans to launch the Ideal MEGA on March 1 this year, this model is equipped with a dual-motor four-wheel drive system, the maximum power of the front and rear batteries is 155kW and 245kW respectively, and its acceleration time of 100 kilometers is 55S, cruising range 710km. The price of this model will be significantly higher than that of the previous model, and the pre-sale** will exceed 60 yuan. MEGA is a pure electric MPV, and the ideal has never been involved in the MPV market before, has no experience in this field, and this is a pure electric product, but also the first time the ideal released a pure electric model, in the pure electric model is controversial at the moment, whether the MEGA can replicate the success of the ideal ONE is full of variables.
Li Xianghao said, "I am confident that the car will become the first new explosive product with sales of more than 500,000 yuan", which is related to the high growth of the segment in the first three quarters of 2023, and the retail sales of the domestic MPV market increased by 18% year-on-year. Among them, the growth of B-level and above models in the MPV market is as high as 40%. After the full release of the second child, the demand for family cars will increase. But Li Xiang once said that "the ideal is the best family car within 5 million yuan", this kind of slightly self-selling and boastful hype can not become a real selling point, and competitors have been eyeing each other, taking January this year as an example, the world surpassed the ideal to win the monthly crown of the new car-making force.
In fact, the ideal is considered by some industry insiders to have successfully landed, in addition to the profit of 10 billion yuan in 2023, there is also the cash flow on the ideal account, the financial report shows that as of the end of December 2023, the ideal cash reserve reached 1036700 million yuan. In comparison, Xpeng's cash flow in the third quarter of 2023 was 116900 million yuan, NIO's cash flow in the 2023 interim report is 159700 million yuan. The cash flow in the hands of the ideal is also a strong guarantee for the ideal anti-risk.
At present, Ideal has become the third new energy vehicle company in the world to achieve profitability after Tesla and BYD. Whether this means that the ideal continues to make profits is difficult to say, but compared with NIO and Xpeng, which continue to fall into the quagmire of losses, the ideal days are obviously much better.